Thursday brings us another slim MLB card, but we managed a profitable 3-1 record on Wednesday’s card. Here are some bets to consider on Thursday evening’s eight-game slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS VS. NEW YORK YANKEES (7:07 P.M. ET)
NYY -1.5 (-140)
The Yankees have huge advantages across the board in this one. Domingo German has been tremendous for New York this season, with a 3.98 ERA and 14-2 record. Those wins include six scoreless innings against the Blue Jays, with German allowing just three base runners. The Yankees went on to win that one 4-0, and he is part of a current streak in which the Yankees have won six straight games German’s started, covering the run line in all six. In total, the Yankees have won 16 of German’s 19 starts, covering the run line in 15 of those victories.
Thomas Pannone will start for Toronto, with a 5.98 ERA, and a loser in three of his last four outings. While Toronto’s bullpen does rank 10th in MLB, the Yanks rank fifth. Offensively, there’s obviously no contest, as the Yankees offense is now averaging the most runs per game in baseball, and the Jays rank all the way down at 22nd.
BOSTON RED SOX VS. LOS ANGELES ANGELS (7:10 P.M. ET)
I wish the Angels had a little more momentum coming into this one, but it’s impossible not to fade Chris Sale at this price. We thought Sale figured it out after his rough start to the season, posting a 2.14 ERA over a 10-start stretch. Since then, he’s back to a 7.23 ERA in his last eight starts. The Red Sox have lost five of Sale’s last seven starts — partially due to his poor performance, and partially due to one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Boston’s dropped Sale starts to the likes of the Blue Jays, White Sox and Tigers this season, so no team is too much of a long shot to bet on in this spot.
The Red Sox are tremendous offensively, but the Angels aren’t too far behind, averaging 0.7 fewer runs per game. Dillon Peters has been solid for the Angels this season, with a 3.20 ERA in seven outings. Two of those games were starts, and he lasted a combined nine innings, with a 2.00 ERA. This is well worth the price at +200 or better, as Sale continues to be overvalued based on name and reputation.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (9:45 P.M. ET)
The Giants got us all excited during their hot streak, which was fueled by a breakout that none of us saw coming offensively. They’ve finally regressed back to the team we know well, that struggles as much as anyone to score at home — 3.25 runs per game this season. We could get a pitching duel in this one, as Madison Bumgarner faces Aaron Nola.
The numbers aren’t as strong to back the Phillies as they are the Yankees, so I’d look to play this one smaller. But Nola’s on his best stretch of the year, allowing 12 earned runs in 46 1/3 innings since the start of July. Philly’s offense ranks 17th in baseball, which provides another slight edge here.
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS. COLORADO ROCKIES (10:10 P.M. ET)
The Rockies are in a great spot in San Diego, with Jon Gray facing a San Diego lineup he’s done well against. He’s 2-0 in three starts against them this season, with the game Colorado lost going on the bullpen. The one start Gray made in San Diego, he allowed three hits and one run in seven innings.
Eric Lauer’s been brutal for the Padres post-All-Star break, with a 6.91 ERA in four outings (three starts). Lauer’s made two starts against the Rockies this season, getting smoked for 13 runs in just 5 2/3 total innings — 0-2 with a 20.65 ERA. Of course, both those starts came at Coors Field, but there was only one home run hit against Lauer, and batters hit for a .529 batting average against him. You could play this one of the first five innings, or just ride it out for the game. Even away from Coors, the Rockies average a full run per game better than the Giants at home.
PARLAY OF THE DAY
NYY/PHI/COL ML (+420)
I’m confident enough here in the three favorites we’re betting on the parlay the moneylines for small money. You’ll get more than quadruple your money back on it. If you’re feeling really brave, and want to fade Sale in the parlay as well, we get back huge +1510 odds.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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