MLB-Value-Targets

There’s an interesting nine-game fantasy baseball slate ahead of us with some really tough matchups for both pitchers and hitters, which should result in surprising results. I think it’s pretty important to find ways away from the expected chalk on a slate like this and leverage where you can, so it’s a great day for three-max entries so you can differentiate and hedge a bit. Let’s look into where I think the best spots to do that are.

PITCHER

Stud

Patrick Corbin, WAS vs. STL, $10,200 — Outside of his first game against the Mets, Corbin has been fantastic for the Nationals. The lefty has four of his five games with 20+ DKFP and at least six strikeouts with each start resulting in a quality start. The matchup seems subpar, but the Cardinals have been the worst hitting team in the league against LHPs with just a .193 batting average and an 87 wRC+, making Corbin my favorite ace on the slate.

Other Options — Justin Verlander ($10,800)

Value

John Means, BAL at CWS, $7,000 — Means was spectacular in his most recent start against the White Sox with five innings pitched, one earned run and six strikeouts for 22.3 DKFP. He’s going to face a similar matchup but without Eloy Jimenez, who was put on the IL, so the team is a bit more watered down. I expect him to be popular, but for his price, the strikeout stuff is real and the White Sox certainly unlock upside for opposing pitchers, making him a great option in cash games.

Other Options — Manny Banuelos ($7,500)


CATCHER

Stud

Yasmani Grandal, MIL vs. COL, $4,500 — Grandal has been having a great season with the Brewers and has six home runs and a surprising three steals with a respectable .294 batting average. His past 10 games have been ugly with just a .135 average but the walks (five of them) have equated in a couple steals and he still is scoring runs and getting RBI, so his floor is great. The upper tier of price has a lot of rough matchups, so I prefer the safety of Grandal.

Other Options — James McCann ($4,000), Josh Phegley ($3,900)

Value

Buster Posey, SF vs. LAD, $3,500 — Posey is mostly devoid of upside at this point in his career as the contact skills have stayed strong but the power has not as evidenced by his singular home run and .383 SLG percentage on the year. He’s worth considering as a value play due to a strong batting average of .294 as well as a miniature power surge with four doubles in his past 10 games.

Other Options — Martin Maldonado ($2,800)


FIRST BASE

Pete Alonso, NYM vs. CIN, $5,300 — Alonso has been destroying the baseball in his rookie campaign and has a .309/.404/.681 slash line while averaging 10.8 DKFP. He faces Tanner Roark ($7,300), who has had decent strikeout stuff but is struggling badly with the fly ball with just a 31% ground ball rate in his couple of starts. That kind of profile is going to result in home runs, which is exactly the kind of thing we look for when rostering Alonso. He’s a high-upside option on a slate with a lot of uncomfortable places to attack.

Other Options — Cody Bellinger ($5,700), Jose Abreu ($5,000)

Value

Eric Hosmer, SD at ATL, $3,700 — It’s been a season best described as painfully average for Hosmer with a .243 batting average and 7.1 DKFP per game, but his recent play is really encouraging. He’s upped his batting average and is hitting .308 with three home runs and nine RBI while averaging 9.9 DKFP, and now is the time to get on the Hosmer train while his price tag is cheap — especially against a contact pitcher in a good park.

Other Options — Ryan O’Hearn ($3,700), Brandon Belt ($3,800)


SECOND BASE

Stud

Jose Altuve, HOU at MIN, $4,700 — The Astros get a spot against Jake Odorizzi ($7,100), and it just screams upside. Odorizzi has some strikeout stuff for sure, but he also has a strikingly low ground ball percentage at just 27%, which gives him the highest home run upside on the slate. Altuve has been bad after starting the year as a walking tiki torch, but if anyone is going to unlock that upside again it’s someone like Odorizzi, making Altuve a solid GPP option.

Other Options — Whit Merrifield ($4,900), Leury Garcia ($4,600)

Value

Stevie Wilkerson, BAL at CWS, $2,400 — The DraftKings pricing algorithm has been stingy this year and you almost never find decent hitters priced in the mid-$2,000 range, so it’s really important to consider someone in Wilkerson’s position. He’s gotten a hit in four straight games and has a double, a steal, and a home run in the same timeframe. He’s not a great hitter but for his price he needs the bare minimum to make it work. He’s a strong cash-game option.

Other Options — Ian Kinsler ($3,100)


THIRD BASE

Stud

Yoan Moncada, CWS vs. BAL, $5,300 — I wrote about Means as a good option to find value at the pitcher position, but I also really like a couple of White Sox bats especially if Means is going to be popular. Moncada is hitting .325 with a 1.025 OPS in his past 10 games with three home runs on 13 hits and is absolutely locked in. Moncada definitely has more power on the other side of the plate (.338 ISO to RHP), but the matchup is juicy regardless and if Means gets rocked that Baltimore bullpen is a joke, offering full game upside.

Other Options — Nolan Arenado ($5,400)

Value

Hanser Alberto, BAL at CWS, $3,300 — Going to jump over to the other side of this game and suggest you look into Alberto as a value option against Manny Banuelos ($7,500) and a shaky White Sox bullpen. Alberto has been pretty good if not a bit underwhelming, batting .313 with a .324 OBP but just a .406 SLG in his past 10 games. The lack of extra-base hits is not great, but he exhibits a good floor with upside for 10-15 DKFP for a good price in a good matchup.

Other Options — Daniel Robertson ($3,200)


SHORTSTOP

Stud

Carlos Correa, HOU at MIN, $4,800 — To go along Altuve, I’m going to throw out Correa against Odorizzi as well. I think this is a really nice stacking spot and getting the major power bats in the Astros’ lineup makes a lot of sense. Correa also is coming into the game hot with a .961 OPS and 10.2 DKFP per game in his past 10 and should continue that hot play today.

Other Options — Trevor Story ($5,500)

Value

Carter Kieboom, WAS vs. STL, $3,700 — As usual, shortstop is a terrible place to punt for value and you should focus on the upper tier of pricing. If you don’t, I like riding the “New Guy Swag” and taking Kieboom and his hot start. He’s played only three games but has two home runs. exhibiting a solid amount of power. He’s not going to have this good of a floor moving forward, but he’s worth a shot on a slate with hardly anyone priced below him giving any upside.

Other Options — Wilmer Difo ($3,500)


OUTFIELD

Stud

David Dahl, COL at MIL, $5,100 — People are rightfully enamored by the strong play of Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, but Dahl has been great for the Rockies all season. He’s batting .338 and has maintained a .375 OBP and .581 SLG, and although the home runs haven’t been there, he has eight doubles and two triples to make up for it. He gets a platoon advantage against Zach Davies ($6,800) in a great hitter’s park and has a better floor than most hitters on this slate.

Other Options — George Springer ($5,300), Marcell Ozuna ($5,000)

Value

Franmil Reyes, SD at ATL, $3,800 — Reyes isn’t going to be someone with a good floor at all as shown by his .172 batting average and .200 OBP in his past 10 games, but when he hits the ball it’s going to be hit hard and that’s valuable in a matchup with Mike Soroka ($7,500), who has great command but not a lot of life with his stuff. I certainly prefer paying up at this position, but Reyes is one of the boom-or-bust guys that I’m OK with if you don’t.

Other Options — Brandon Belt ($3,800), Jose Martinez ($3,700)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Multichem) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.