Wednesday night brings us a solid 11 game slate. Pitching is fairly cheap once again, as only three pitchers will cost you upwards of $10K. Let’s get set for tonight and as always, you can find me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

 

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

WAS (-235) vs. ATL – Stephen Strasburg – Stephen Strasburg will come off the disabled list to make tonight’s start against the Braves. Surprisingly enough, Strasburg has had his struggles against the Braves this season, in three starts, Strasburg has pitched 19 innings allowing nine runs on 17 hits with a 18:7 K:BB ratio. The Braves are a relatively tough team to strikeout, as evidenced by Strasburg owning an 8.5 K/9 against them, which ranks as the lowest out of any team he’s faced more than once. I’m certainly a bit skeptical on how well he’ll perform here.

 

Biggest Over/Unders

SFG vs. COL – 11.5 runs – Albert Suarez takes on Jorge De La Rosa in what should be a high scoring affair (11.5 runs projected). Suarez has been terrible on the road in his brief time up in the majors this season, owning a .371 wOBA with a .564 SLG and five of his seven home runs allowed. As a right-handed pitcher in Coors Field, I shudder to think what the Rockies’ lefties will do to him tonight.

De La Rosa continues to post respectable numbers for Coors Field, allowing a .338 wOBA with a .436 SLG and a .346 OBP. I’m not trying to compare Tyler Anderson with De La Rosa, but last night evidenced how poorly the Giants are against left-handed pitching, even in a setting like Coors Field. Nonetheless, De La Rosa is certainly a downgrade from Anderson, and I think the Giants will post better numbers.


Weather Concerns

STL vs PIT (PNC Park) – This game should start fine, but thunderstorms could roll in around the middle of the game. We do see some clearing shortly after, so a delay at worst seems likely. Monitor this forecast.

ATL vs WAS (Nationals Park) – Almost the same situation as PNC Park, as the game should start fine, with some potential rain during the game. Monitor this forecast.

KCR vs MIN (Target Field) – Rain is going to be a threat the entire day in Minnesota, so this is certainly worth watching. The chance of rain diminishes as the night progresses, so the track of these storms will be crucial. One more to monitor.

 

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – SFG vs COL Here is your daily reminder that Coors Field is the number one ballpark for hitters. All offensive categories are favored here.
  • Progressive Field – HOU vs CLE – Progressive Field is home to the number two ballpark on the night. As of today, all offensive categories are favored here except triples.
  • Dodger Stadium – ARZ vs LAD – The D-Backs are in town to face the Dodgers in tonight’s worst ballpark for hitters. Coming into this game, no categories are favor hitters.
  • Marlins Park – PHI vs MIA – Marlins Park checks in as the second worst park for hitters tonight with the Phillies in town. Coming into this game, only doubles are favored.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Ariel Miranda.911.357Danny Duffy.461.183
A.J. Griffin.926.278Mike Montgomery.610.196
Kyle Gibson.915.338Jarred Cosart.619.185

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Ariel Miranda.830.247Danny Duffy.422.242
Jarred Cosart.823.347Doug Fister.583.214
Jorge De La Rosa.809.276Carlos Carrasco.643.220

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Freddie FreemanStephen Strasburg343.35
David FreeseMike Leak252.64
Buster PoseyJorge De La Rosa392.05

  • It just wouldn’t be an Atlanta Washington series without talking about what Freddie Freeman has done against Stephen Strasburg. Freeman is 14-34 with three doubles, four home runs, 13 RBIs and six walks.
  • Next up we have David Freese taking on Mike Leake. Freese has gone 13-25 with three doubles, a home run and six RBIs.
  • Finally we have some decent numbers for Buster Posey taking on Jorge De La Rosa. Posey has gone 11-39 with four doubles, two home runs, nine RBIs and five walks.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

David Price – BOS vs SDP – $13,100 I have absolutely zero problem taking David Price tonight, even with his high salary. Price has been locked in on the mound lately, owning a .301 wOBA since the All-Star break with a .396 SLG and a .305 OBP. The Padres come into this game with a 25.5 K% against left-handed pitching this season, making this one of the reasons why this is a great spot for Price.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Bryce Harper – WAS vs. ATL (Mike Foltynewicz) – $4,900 – Mike Foltynewicz has been bad against left-handed batters, but he’s been exceptionally bad against them on the road. Coming into this game, Folty is allowing a .373 wOBA with a .551 SLG. Harper has been collecting extra base hits at an alarming rate as of late, with five doubles, a triple and a home run in his last 10 games. With his .357 wOBA at home against righties, he’ll be a fine play tonight.

Save Big by Drafting…

Raimel Tapia – COL vs. SFG (Albert Suarez) – $2,900 – This is all contingent on if Charlie Blackmon is in the lineup or not, but Tapia has been manning the leadoff spot in his absence. I mean, can it get any better than a leadoff hitter, playing at Coors Field that only costs $2,900?


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.