We head into the FINAL weekend of the regular MLB season starting tonight with a full 15-game slate. As we do so, I wanted to take a quick second to thank everyone for reading and reaching out. I hope my passion for baseball has translated over these articles, and I look forward to retuning to these next season. As always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorite

TEX (-210) vs. TBR – Yu Darvish – Oh boy, Darvish going up against the strikeout happy Rays tonight? Where do I sign up? The Rays enter this game with the 5th highest K% in the league against right-handed pitchers at 22.8%. Likewise, Darvish has been doing what he always does, which is strikeout opposing batters at an impressive rate. Through 16 starts this season, Darvish owns an 11.4 K/9 on the season, which certainly makes this an attractive matchup. At Globe Life Park this season Darvish hasn’t been great owning a .313 wOBA with a .424 SLG and a .306 OBP in 51 innings. Nonetheless, the Rays dwell near the bottom of the league when it comes to offensive numbers, so I think starting Darvish here is certainly in a safe spot.

Highest Total

MIL vs. COL –12.5 runs – – What better way to wrap up the regular MLB season than a closing series in Coors Field!? Brent Suter, making just his second big league start, takes on Chad Bettis in this one. Suter has made 13 appearances overall this season for the Brewers, pitching in just 16.2 innings. The left-handed pitcher doesn’t have a ton of strikeout potential and has had issues with walks all throughout his career.

Chad Bettis faces the Brewers for the second time this season, after pitching five innings in that start, allowing four runs on four hits with an absurd 3:7 K:BB ratio. Bettis has been slightly better at Coors this season compared to on the road, as he owns a .326 wOBA with a .425 SLG and a .331 OBP. Just like Suter, Bettis is extremely cheap tonight as all Coors pitchers usually are, with just a $5,700 price tag. If the Brewers rest the majority of their starters tonight, he could end up being an intriguing option tonight, but that’s highly contingent on that factor.

Weather Concerns

NYM vs. PHI (Citizens Bank Park) – Lots of weather concerns for tonight, starting off with Philly. They’re expecting some rain midway through the game, but it should clear up soon after, however.

MIA vs. WAS (Nationals Park) – No real threats here, but we could see some rain near the end of the game in this one. Double check the forecast before first pitch.

BAL vs. NYY (Yankee Stadium) – This is a game I have some concern with, as they are expecting rain all throughout the day and night in New York.

TOR vs. BOS (Fenway Park) – Same as New York, as Fenway Park could see some rain all throughout the night with no real chance of clearing. Watch this game closely.

MIN vs. CHW (U.S. Cellular Field) – Chicago will see a high chance of rain all throughout the night, but early looks show that we could see some spots of clearing. This certainly deserves a look before first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – MIL vs COL  – Good ol’ Coors Field topping our list for the most favorable ballpark for hitters. As of tonight, and always, all offensive categories get the nod here.
  • Fenway Park – TOR vs BOS – Fenway Park lands at number two on our list as we head into the weekend. All offensive categories except walks are favored here.
  • Citizen Bank Park – NYM vs PHI – Citizen Bank Park is our worst ballpark for hitters tonight. Coming into this game, only home runs are favored here.
  • LAA Stadium – HOU vs LAA – Last but not least, LAA Stadium is number two on our list for unfavorable ballparks for hitters. Home runs are the only category that get the nod here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Andrew Cashner.892.288Rich Hill.433.181
Braden Shipley.877.265Madison Bumgarner.520.178
Yovani Gallardo.830.277Carlos Rodon.584.226

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Tyler Duffey1.014.332Rich Hill.544.192
Braden Shipley.923.327Carlos Martinez.547.208
Edwin Jackson.889.296Madison Bumgarner.641.217

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Gregory PolancoCarlos Martinez193.73
Brian DozierCarlos Rodon163.62
J.J.HardyMichael Pineda202.9

  • Polanco taking on Martinez is what headlines our BvP section for tonight. Coming into this matchup, Polanco has gone 10-19 with three doubles, a triple, a home run and three RBIs.
  • Next we have Dozier taking on Rodon. Dozier looks to continue his hot second half tonight as he’s been 6-16 against Rodon with three home runs and six RBIs.
  • Finally we go with Hardy taking on Pineda. The Orioles short stop has gone 9-20 off Pineda with three home runs and four RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Rick Porcello – BOS vs TOR – $11,100 – I have to go with my guy “Pretty Ricky” one more time tonight as he wraps up his season against the Blue Jays. Porcello will be getting a full Jays lineup tonight, as they try to maintain their Wild Card lead in the American League. However, Fenway Park has been Porcello’s strong point this season, owning a .272 wOBA with a .357 SLG and a .272 OPB. He’s faced the Blue Jays four times this season and has been like he’s been the entire second-half, consistent. In those starts, Porcello has gone 26 innings allowing 13 runs on 22 hits with a 27:4 K:BB ratio.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

David Ortiz – BOS vs. TOR (Marco Estrada) – $5,300 – I mean, it’s his last home series in the regular season for Ortiz, isn’t that a narrative you want to play? He faces Marco Estrada tonight, who has been extremely solid on the mound this season, but that’s nothing Papi can’t handle. At home against a RHP, Ortiz owns a .475 wOBA with a .752 SLG and a .442 OBP. On a night where it’s hard to predict who will be in the lineup and who won’t, you know David should planted right in the number three hole for tonight.

Save Big by Drafting…

Pedro Alvarez – NYY vs. BAL (Michael Pineda) – $3,300 – This game is a must-win for the Orioles tonight, as they face a Yankees team that has all but packed it in. Alvarez faces Michael Pineda tonight, who has struggled against left-handed batters this season. On the road, Alvarez owns a .390 wOBA against righties with a .556 SLG and a .369 OBP. I’m looking for that “must-win” attitude for the Orioles gives Alvarez a bit of a boost for tonight.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.