We have a short slate of baseball going here on a Monday. With only one game this afternoon, we’ll just be focusing on what we have going on tonight. As always you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Heaviest Pitcher Favorites
This section is to showcase who the Vegas favorites are on the night. Not my own personal choices.
David Price vs. New York Yankees (-261) – With a short slate like we have today, it came as no surprise that David Price was the heavy favorite for Vegas tonight. Coming in with a 2.42 ERA to go with a 1.09 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.1 It’s been no secret that price has been fantastic since being dealt to the Blue Jays. it doesn’t hurt that Price has been fantastic against their division rival the Yankees either. With a 2.33 ERA against them this season, Price will look to build on that success tonight. It’s strange to think that the Yankees have done so poorly against Price this season, as they’ve been one of the best offensive teams against lefties this season. The Yankees own a .333 wOBA against lefties this season, which is ranked third in the entire league. They also have a low 19.2 K%, which is ranked 24th in the season. It’s honestly mind boggling seeing how Price has just had their number this season. So now it comes down to, which stat are you going to trust more? The overall numbers of Price against the Yankees, or the numbers Price has against the Yankees. Personally, I think the Yankees numbers will have to catch up with Price at some point. For as good as Price is, the Yankees have a good offense. As the most expensive pitcher on the night, I think this might be a good time to fade Price out, as crazy as it sounds. Hey, it’s near the end of the season, have to be bold at some point.
*Jon Niese vs. Atlanta Braves (-194) -*Let me tell you, when I see Jonathon Niese as the second favored pitcher on the night, it really makes me hate these short slates sometimes. But, we do have to take into account the matchup that Niese does have. He goes up against the lowly Atlanta Braves, who struggle immensely against left handed pitching. Shocking to absolutely no one. On the season, the Braves own a .287 wOBA with a K% of 20.5%. Even with how poorly Niese has pitched this season, you have to at least be intrigued by the prospect of him going up against the Braves. Truly, they’re one of the worst offensive teams in the league and are even worse when facing a left handed pitcher. The price for Niese, at least I think, is the cherry on top. At just $5,800, I think he’s going to be a popular choice. In his last start against the Braves, Niese only managed 10.1 points, going six innings giving up two runs on eight hits and striking out three. Not a great start by any means, but I’d be surprised if the Braves got him twice in a row. Then again, this is Jon Niese we’re talking about.
Jaime Garcia vs. Cincinnati Reds (-194)- My boy Garcia hasn’t looked to sharp lately. I’m thinking the pressure I put on him by recommending him the last time he pitched was just too much. In his last start against the Brewers, Garcia posted a disappointing 12.9 points as he went six innings, giving up four runs on eight hits and striking out four. Garcia gets a tougher matchup today, as he faces the Reds, who are 14th in the league in wOBA against lefties at .314. The strikeouts are also down as well, with a 20.5 K%, which ranks 20th in the league. For a pitcher I’m usually all over, Garcia might be faded tonight. His price tag is also not the nicest I’ve seen, as his pitching is finally starting to match up with his salary, which was usually what enticed me to roster him. At $10,200 tonight, Garcia suddenly doesn’t look as attractive as he normally would be. I hate to do it buddy, but I’m off of you tonight.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
Dallas Keuchel vs. LA Angels- Keuchel had one of the worst starts of his career his last time out. It’s clearly evident by how much his wOBA against lefties jumped up. Once hovering in the .150 range, Keuchel is still best on the night, even with the significant jump to .208 on the season.
Randy Wolf vs. Chicago White Sox- Let me just make it known, that Wolf has only a handful of starts under his belt, and I wouldn’t be starting him under any circumstances. Regadless, he meet the criteria to make it into this section, so his .245 wOBA against lefties is the second best on the night.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Jaime Garcia vs. Cincinnati Reds- Garcia is coming of back to back duds, as of course I recommended him his last time out. I’ll make sure to never let him make a fool of me again (even though I think he’s fantastic.) Garcia comes into tonight with a .243 wOBA against righties.
Shelby Miller vs. New York Mets- At least Braves fans have something to look forward to every five days. Miller has been so solid this season, as he owns a .263 wOBA against righties this season.
Best Left/Right Matchups
Easiest Pitcher vs. Left Handed Batters.
John Lamb vs. St. Louis Cardinals- Lamb is one of the most confusing pitchers ever. He has a fantastic K/9 at 10.2 but he just delivers so much contact that he’s actually not a good play on a normal basis. Perfect example, he owns a .449 wOBA to lefties. Sheesh.
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Tampa Bay Rays – Rodriguez is a damn good pitcher. He was a nice haul for the Red Sox when they traded away Andrew Miller last season. However, he really need to work on facing lefties, as they’ve tagged him for a .380 wOBA on the year.
Easiest Pitcher vs. Right Handed Batters.
Randy Wolf vs. Chicago White Sox – Remember I told you not to get all excited about Randy Wolf? Trust me, I’ve been watching baseball for a long time. No one gets excited about Randy Wolf. Even more so with his .415 wOBA on the short season.
John Lamb vs. St. Louis Cardinals- Lamb continues to confuse everyone with his .354 wOBA against righties. So either strike out or a hit. Got it.
Evan Gattis 1B ($4000) – Gattis has always been a power threat and his brought that to an Astros team that desperately needed it. Gattis comes into tonight 10-26 with two home runs eight RBIs and three runs scored.
Tommy Pham OF ($3400) – The other night when Pham scored over 35 points on DraftKings, I admitted that I had never even heard of the kid. Well, he’s certainly making a name for himself right now. Pham is 9-20 with three home runs, eight RBIs, six runs scored and a stolen base.
Jayson Werth OF ($4400) –Werth certainly could have started his hot streak awhile ago, and maybe the Nationals wouldn’t be in such a tough spot like they are now. Better late than never though, right? Werth is 8-26 with four home runs, nine RBIs, and eight runs scored.
Best Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
Anthony Rizzo vs. Wily Peralta- Rizzo has seen a decent amount of Peralta in his career, and I think it’s safe to say, he’s crushed him. Rizzo comes into tonight 12-26 against Peralta with seven extra base hits, five of them being home runs, and a 1.649 OPS. Sooooo, how soon until your roster Rizzo?
Paul Goldschmidt vs. Brett Anderson- Goldschmidt hasn’t seen a lot of Brett Anderson, but when he has, he’s hit him well. Goldy enters tonight 7-13 against Anderson with two extra base hits, both of them being a home run, with a 1.600 OPS.
*Matt Weiters vs. Gio Gonzalez-*Wieters is a silent Gio Gonzalez killer apparently. Wieters has gone 10-17 against Gonzalez with two extra base hits, one of them being a home run, and a 1.443 OPS.
We have two games tonight that could see some rain:
Orioles at Nationals
Diamondbacks at Dodgers
One Pitcher To Build Lineups Around
Dallas Keuchel ($11,400) – I’ll tell you, not a ton of attractive options on this slate tonight. I’m not even thrilled with this Keuchel pick, not because he did so poorly in his last start, but because the LA Angels don’t strike out a lot against LHP. But regardless, Keuchel should be able to hold them in check. Coming into tonight, the Angels own a .291 wOBA against left handed pitching while their strike out percentage sits at 18.8%, which is certainly a low number. I’d also feel better if this game was in LA and not HOU, but again, the picks are certainly slim tonight. Even with a couple of good names going tonight, I don’t love their matchup, with Chris Archer going against the Red Sox a perfect example. With that being said, Keuchel did have a successful start against the Angels earlier this month, getting 23.3 points going six innings giving up no runs on five his while striking out seven.
Superstar Worth Paying For
Jose Abreu ($5000) –I’m going to take a different approach here and take someone who actually doesn’t have stellar numbers against lefties, but that leftie he’s facing as just been atrocious. Yes, you guessed it! Abreu is facing Randy Wolf tonight! While Abreu is only owns a .301 wOBA against lefties this season, Wolf is allowing a .415 wOBA to righties on the season. It also doesn’t hurt that Wolf has given up four home runs in just 25 innings this season. I think Wolf is going to get crushed tonight and I have no reason to believe that Abreu won’t be a part of that. His power is unmatched, even in a less than favorable matchup.
Save Big Bucks By Drafting…
Thomas Pham ($3400) –Might as well ride the kid while he’s hot. Pham gets a cake matchup against John Lamb tonight, a pitcher who’s allowing a .354 wOBA to righties this season. Pham, even though his time up here has been short, owns a .412 wOBA against lefties on the season. With the way he’s been hitting since his call up, Pham could quickly reach his value, especially with his nice matchup tonight. I’m all in on Pham.