We have only five games going tonight after a huge 10 game slate this afternoon. We still have plenty of baseball to cover in this one, so let’s jump into all the information. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
TOR (-148) vs. NYY – Marco Estrada – I personally like this spot for both pitchers in this game, but I think it’s a great bounce back spot for Estrada. Coming off a start against the Yankees his last time out, Estrada pitched seven innings, allowing three runs on four hits with a 2:4 K:BB ratio. Estrada has been pitching much better than that line indicates and now this series has shifted to Toronto. Estrada has been fantastic at home, averaging 22.2 FPPG allowing just five runs in 26.2 innings with an 8.1 K/9 at the Rogers Centre. The Yankees continue to struggle at the plate, so don’t be surprised if Estrada comes away with a nice outing here.
NYY vs TOR – 9 runs – I was a bit surprised that this game has the highest projected run total for tonight. Even though I think both pitchers may end up pitching well here, I can see how others might think this game could go in the other direction, as both of these starting pitchers gave up a combined seven runs in their last meeting together. Personally, I think we have at least one other game that I feel will have a high run total, as the Pirates and Marlins looks like one to me. Nonetheless, both of these teams aren’t exactly crushing the ball at this point, so I personally am not going to go crazy here with exposure.
TBR vs KCR (Kauffman Stadium) – No rain to worry about in this game, but it will feature a strong 14 mph wind blowing out to left field that will die down as the game progresses
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.
- Rogers Centre – TOR vs NYY Don’t expect this to sustain, but Rogers Centre is currently the third best hitting ballpark in all of baseball. It currently favors hitters in every offensive category.
- Marlins Park – PIT vs MIA – Currently ranked 11th this season, Marlins Park favors hitters in runs, home runs and doubles.
- Citizens Bank Park – WAS vs PHI – I feel as though this is backwards so far, as Citizen Bank Park, one of the best hitting parks in 2015, is currently one of the worst. So far, only triples are favored for hitters in 2016.
- Angel Stadium of Anaheim – DET vs LAA – Angel Stadium, one of the worst for hitters last season, currently favors runs, home runs, and walks.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Jeremy Hellickson||. 792||.259||Matt Andriese||.422||.147|
|Jeff Locke||.689||.255||Tanner Roark||.534||.179|
|Justin Nicolino||.686||.240||Justin Verlander||.595||.202|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Jeff Locke||.891||.287||Marco Estrada||.538||.179|
|Jhoulys Chacin||.796||.304||Matt Andriese||.550||.265|
|Ivan Nova||.785||.293||Tanner Roark||. 678||.266|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Logan Morrison||Ian Kennedy||14||3.57|
|Chris Johnson||Jeff Locke||15||3.13|
|Giancarlo Stanton||Jeff Locke||14||3|
- Logan Morrison has such a strange BvP against Kennedy. Morrison is 5-14 against Kennedy with two triples, two home runs, and three RBIs.
- Chris Johnson against Jeff Locke is not something I would have even considered, even on this short slate. Johnson is 7-15 with two doubles, two home runs and three RBIs.
- Finally, this all depends if Stanton can play or not today. In 14 at-bats, Stanton has seven hits against Locke, with two doubles, two home runs and two RBIs.
Pitcher to Build Around
Tanner Roark – WAS vs. PHI – $9,600 – – With a matchup with the Phillies, Roark easily slots into my number one spot for today. Roark has been fantastic this season, owning a 2.71 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.2. This Phillies team continues to hang out near the bottom of the league in all offensive categories against right-handed pitchers. In fact, they don’t surpass being ranked 25th in wOBA, ISO, SLG, or OBP. On top of it all, they own the 11th highest K% against righties at 21.4%. Roark should be a great option here tonight, and even saves you a bit of salary, being the fourth most expensive pitcher.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Marcell Ozuna – MIA vs. PIT (Jeff Locke) – $5,200 – Ozuna against a left-handed pitcher is not something I’d be looking to pass at any point. Ozuna against Jeff Locke is about as good as a matchup as you’ll get on this short slate. At home against lefties, Ozuna owns an absolutely absurd .786 wOBA with a 1.214 SLG and a .643 OBP. Uhhh, yeah. Overall against lefties, Ozuna has a .627 wOBA with a 1.000 SLG and a .513 OBP. Crazy, crazy numbers.
Save Big by Drafting…
Cameron Maybin – DET vs. LAA (Jhoulys Chacin) – $3,600 – When Maybin first joined up with the Tigers, I figured he would have a couple of good games and then go back to being Cameron Maybin. However, it hasn’t stopped as of yet and Maybin is averaging 11.1 FPPG in 12 games thus far. With Jhoulys Chacin allowing a .346 wOBA to righties this far, Maybin could be in line for another solid start. Maybin has also stolen four bases this season, which always brings some sneaky value to a hitter like him.
Stack Em Up
MIA vs. PIT (Jeff Locke) – I honestly don’t understand how this game isn’t the highest projected run total of the night. The Marlins have the ability to stack a very right-handed heavy lineup against Locke, who continues to struggles immensely against them. On the season, Locke owns a .381 wOBA against righties, jumping up to .404 on the road. With a Marlins stack coming very cheap, this has to be one of the top options on this short slate.