WATCH: MLB IN 90 SECONDS – CARLOS MARTINEZ
With a full 15-games going tonight, we have plenty of ways to attack this slate. Let’s jump into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Jon Lester ($10,600) – We have quite a few big names pitching tonight, and yet Lester and the Cubs are the biggest favorites against the Phillies. Last night, the Phillies had an offensive outburst against this Cubs team, tagging Brett Anderson for seven runs. Lester will be a much tougher matchup tonight, as he’s averaged 20.3 FPPG in two home starts allowing just one run on seven hits in 13 innings of work. With that being said, the Phillies have been one of the best hitting clubs against lefties, owning a team .328 wOBA with a .446 SLG and a .316 OBP. They strikeout at a fairly high rate with a 22.6 K%, good for 11th in the league, but Lester has been down on strikeouts thus far, owning just a 7.8 K/9 on the season. At any rate, the Phillies projected run total sits at just three, and Lester should be a fine play tonight at a reasonable salary ($10,600).
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds – 9 projected runs – Believe it or not, this is the only game on this full 15-game slate that has a run projection of at least nine runs. The Reds have the higher run total at 4.7 tonight as they prepare to face Glasnow for the second time this season. In that first start, they chased him after scoring five runs on four hits in just an inning and a third. With the Reds hitting righties well with a team .322 wOBA and a .430 SLG, they should be able to handle Glasnow tonight.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox – 8.5 projected runs – The Red Sox have the highest run total of the night at 5.3 runs as they take on Alec Asher. He’s been switching between starting and coming out of the bullpen thus far and pitched one-run ball in 6.1 innings against the Blue Jays last month. Asher hasn’t pitched much in the majors, but he’ll face a Red Sox team that has been struggling at the plate. The Red Sox own just a .293 wOBA over the past two weeks with a .308 OBP and a .348 SLG with a 19 K%. I have to admit, I’m not crazy about the Red Sox tonight seeing how bad they’re struggling at the plate. They may have the highest run total, but I think we have safer options to stack tonight.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox (Fenway Park) – No rain concerns here, but Fenway Park will have a 19mph blowing out toward center field during the game.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.
- Fenway Park – Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox – Fenway Park is our number two ballpark for the night as the Orioles continue their visit. All offensive categories were favored here last season except for walks.
- Kauffman Stadium – Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals – The battle of two struggling offenses in a hitters park will take place tonight at Kauffman. Last season, this stadium favored all offensive categories except home runs.
- Dodger Stadium – San Francisco Giants vs. L.A. Dodgers – The Giants will continue their visit at Dodger Stadium. No offensive categories were favored here last season.
- Minute Maid Park – Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros – Minute Maid Park is our second least favorable park on this slate. Triples were the only offensive category that got the nod here last season.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Scott Feldman||.891||.325||Danny Duffy||.449||.183|
|Wily Peralta||.880||.307||Jon Lester||.540||.200|
|Matt Harvey||.864||.321||Chris Sale||.585||.197|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Mike Fiers||.843||.287||Carlos Martinez||.540||.207|
|Wily Peralta||.832||.304||Corey Kluber||.615||.206|
|Mat Latos||.828||.321||Jon Lester||.620||.214|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Justin Upton||Corey Kluber||12||5.08|
|Matt Carpenter||Wily Peralta||43||2.67|
|Evan Gattis||Cole Hamels||23||2.21|
*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)
Pitcher to Build Around
Chris Sale – BOS vs. BAL – $12,500 I usually don’t like showcasing the most expensive pitcher on the slate because it’s typically fairly obvious that they’re a good play. With that being said, when I saw that the Orioles have the second highest K% against lefties, I couldn’t help myself. Coming into tonight, the O’s own a 26.2 K% with a .295 wOBA and a .374 SLG against lefties. Sale enters this start with double-digit strikeouts in all but one of his starts and a K/9 of 12.2 in his first five starts.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Daniel Murphy – WAS vs. ARI – $4,500 – Murphy has certainly shown that last season wasn’t a fluke with the numbers he’s put up thus far. Tonight he’ll face Taijuan Walker at home, a matchup he’s excelled in. At home against righties, Murphy owns a .371 wOBA with a .511 SLG and a .383 OBP. Walker has allowed a .339 wOBA to lefties with all three of his home runs and a .493 SLG.
Save Big by Drafting…
Jay Bruce – NYM vs. ATL – $3,400 – Bruce has been hitting the ball hard, literally, over the past two weeks. The owner of a 55% hard contact rate, Bruce owns a .467 wOBA against righties so far this season with a .697 SLG and a .419 OBP. R.A. Dickey has allowed a .471 wOBA to lefties on the road in two starts so far this season.
Stack Em Up
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Mat Latos) – The Yankees have been one of the best hitting clubs against righties so far this season, and tonight they take on Mat Latos. Making just two starts this season, Latos has been decent at best, but he’s pitched in L.A. and St. Louis, two pitcher’s parks. At Yankee Stadium tonight, he’ll face a New York team that owns a .338 wOBA against righties with a .339 OBP and a .440 SLG. This is a very cheap stack that will allow you to jam two expensive pitchers in, allowing you plenty of upside.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.