After a solid slate of games last night, we come back down to Earth where the pitching options are thin and potential team stacks are everywhere you turn. Let’s jump into all the information for today and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
STL (-180) vs. COL – Adam Wainwright – Nope, this is not a joke. Wainwright and the Cardinals are the heavy favorites on the night. I’m sorry, am I missing something here? Did Wainwright have a stretch of awesome performance that I somehow didn’t notice? Wainwright has been getting whacked around all season, owning a .317 wOBA at home with a .423 SLG. The Rockies come into this matchup 6th in the league in wOBA against righties at .333. If you think that’s inflated because of Coors, they own a .317 on the road, which certainly isn’t terrible. Wainwright isn’t even striking guys out enough to make this a GPP play, as his 5.2 K/9 does nothing for me. I think this is a terrible spot for Wainwright and I’ll be far, far away.
PIT (-179) vs. ATL – Francisco Liriano – Overall I don’t hate this spot for Liriano, it’s just a matter of what pitcher shows up tonight. Coming into tonight, Liriano owns a 4.99 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP averaging 13.9 fantasy points per start. He’s coming off a start where he pitched 4.2 innings allowing eight runs on nine hits to the Cubs. Granted, the Cubs are MILES away offensively from the Braves, but Liriano isn’t doing himself any favors with his 5.2 BB/9. On paper, this should be a great spot for Lirinao to bounce back but I can’t say that with 100% confidence. For what it’s worth, the Braves do have the lowest wOBA against lefties at a pathetic .243 and a .064 ISO.
NYY vs. ARZ – 9.5 runs – This game checks in as the highest projected run total of the entire day, including the four game slate this afternoon. I can’t say I blame Vegas on this one, as Shelby Miller takes on Nathan Eovaldi. To say Miller isn’t enjoying his first stint with the Diamondbacks would be an understatement. Allowing a .401 wOBA at home, Miller has been getting lit up from both sides of the plate with lefties owning a .398 wOBA and a .357 wOBA for righties. Even with the Yankees struggles at the plate, Miller should be serving up plenty of hittable pitches.
With Eovaldi, his struggles against lefties are well documented, as he enters tonight with a .400 wOBA against them. A couple of the hottest hitters on the Diamondbacks, Jake Lamb and Chris Hermann, both bat from the left side making them both interesting choices on this slate. Nonetheless, this game should be full of fantasy goodness and one you should take a hard look at.
After a couple of nights of high winds, we have zero issues for weather going into tonight. As always check before game time, but we should be in the clear.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any offensive category at or above 1.000 favor hitters. Anything below that mark favor pitchers.
- Camden Yards – SEA vs BAL – Camden Yards checks in as the number one hitters ballpark on this slate. Last season, Camden had favorable ratings for runs, home runs and singles.
- Great American Ballpark – CLE vs CIN – Both of these teams play in very hitter friendly ballparks, so no real advantage either way here. The Great American Ballpark favored hitters in every offensive category except triples.
- Angels Stadium of Anaheim – LAD vs LAA – Angels Stadium was ranked the second worst ballpark for hitters in 2015. The only category that favored hitters was walks.
- Citi Field – WAS vs. NYM – Citi Field was also a park that didn’t exactly excite hitters last season. Last season, it did not have a single category that favored hitters.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Nathan Eovaldi||.959||.310||Jake Odorizzi||.481||.235|
|Shelby Miller||.924||.300||Taijuan Walker||.500||.151|
|Nick Tropeano||.860||.278||Gio Gonzalez||.518||.194|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Adam Wainwright||.944||.333||Chris Tillman||.510||.177|
|Jake Odorizzi||.892||.311||Julio Teheran||.523||.205|
|Nick Tropeano||.891||.281||Doug Fister||.549||.188|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Andrew McCutchen||Julio Teheran||12||3.41|
|Jon Jay||Johnny Cueto||33||2.48|
- Andrew McCutchen has the smallest sample size for our top three BvP profiles, but he certainly has made it count. McCutchen is 5-12 against Teheran with a double, two home runs, and four RBIs.
- I’ve profiled this one before and I even played Jay in this spot. It didn’t work out so well in the first go around so maybe we’ll see better results here. Jay is 13-33 against Cueto with two doubles, three home runs, seven RBIs, and two walks.
Pitcher to Build Around
Johnny Cueto – SF vs. SD – $11,900 – We were spoiled with the amount of top pitchers to choose from last night– tonight, not so much. Cueto is the obvious top option here against the strikeout happy Padres. These two teams matched up earlier this season and saw the best performance thus far for Cueto in 2016. In that start, Cueto went nine innings allowing no runs on seven hits with a 11:1 K:BB ratio. Cueto carries his 8.2 K/9 against a Padres team that ranks fourth in the league in strikeout percentage at 25.2%. Cueto will be extremely popular tonight so be warned, you won’t be creative picking him.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Anthony Rizzo – CHC vs. MIL (Jimmy Nelson) – $5,100 – Jimmy Nelson does not handle left handed batters well, so this is such a great time to jump on Rizzo especially after the Cubs dud of a performance against Chase Anderson last night. In his career, Nelson owns a .354 wOBA against left-handed batters with a .464 SLG. Rizzo has been a beast against righties on the road, owning a .573 wOBA hitting seven home runs.
Save Big by Drafting…
Evan Longoria – TBR vs. TOR (R.A. Dickey) – $3,600 – Over his last ten games, Longoria has been showing off his power, hitting for seven extra base hits in 40 at-bats. He faces off against R.A. Dickey, who isn’t exactly the most prolific pitcher you could throw out on the mound. For a cheap price, you’re getting a hitter that has a .324 wOBA against righties with a .226 ISO.
Stack Em Up
COL vs. STL (Adam Wainwright) – The most popular stack on the night is going to be the Yankees facing Shelby Miller. I don’t hate that by any means, but I think this could be a stack that flies under the radar and could pay off well. Wainwright doesn’t look good by any stretch, giving up 11 hits to the Angels his last time out. THE ANGELS! With the Rockies owning a .333 wOBA against righties and a .450 SLG, I don’t expect this game to go well for Wainwright.