Sunday is one of the best days for baseball as almost every team is going today and 95% of the games take place in the afternoon. With a jam packed slate for today, we have plenty of information to get you ready. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
BAL (-165) vs. DET – Kevin Gausman – Gausman comes into this Sunday slate as one of the heavy favorites for today. He’s only started four games this season, but he’s been fantastic in those four. Coming into today, Gausman owns a 2.16 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP and an 8.3 K/9. Facing the Tigers, they’re just around the league average in wOBA against righties at .322, but they do own a high 24.8% K%, which ranks fifth in the league. Gausman and his $8,100 price tag seems to provide some great value on this slate and could be good to go in either cash or tournament formats for today. Pitching at Camden Yards, Gausman owns a career .284 wOBA with a 20% K%.
NYY (-165) vs. CHW –Masahiro Tanaka – Tied with Gausman in terms of favorites., Tanaka enters today with a 3.11 ERA to go with a 0.93 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.5. The White Sox currently rank 16th in wOBA against righties at .314 with a low 18.7 K%. The lack of strikeouts for the White Sox is an obvious concern as it’s hard to rack up those points without them. He’s also coming off a start against the Royals where he allowed six runs on seven hits in seven innings. I don’t hate this spot for Tanaka, but it’s not one of my favorites either.
BOS vs HOU – 10.5 runs- Tied for the most projected runs as Coors Field today, the Red Sox continue to crush the ball on a daily basis. Over the past week, the Red Sox own a .444 wOBA with a .637 SLG and a .414 OBP, all ranking first in the league. Even more amazing is that the Red Sox have scored 68 runs in that span, 26 more than the Orioles in second with 42. With two less than stellar pitchers going today with Chris Devenski for HOU and Sean O’Sullivan for BOS, this game should be a big target.
NYM vs. COL – 10.5 runs – And now for your regularly scheduled program: Coors Field. Jacob deGrom and Tyler Chatwood take the mound for this game with a 10.5 run projection. Both of these teams hit righties well, with a .335 wOBA for the Rockies and a .330 for the Mets. The Rockies don’t strike out against righties much at all, owning a 18.1 K% which ranks 28th in the league, which makes a Rockies stack against deGrom a bit enticing. As is said every time we have a game here, these are always the highest projected run totals on any given day, so some exposure to it is recommended.
We have a TON of high winds again today, but thankfully no rain. So here is a quick wind report for today.
CHW @ NYY : 20mph to right center field.
MIN @ CLE: 21mph blowing in from left
CIN @ PHI: 20mph to right field
DET @ BAL: 20 mph to right field
HOU @ BOS: 22mph out to right field
MIA @ WAS: 21mph from left to right
STL @ LAD: 12mph out to center
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. If an offensive category has a rating of 1.000 or higher, it favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 favors pitching.
- Coors Field – NYM vs COL – Rated the number one hitters ballpark in 2015, Coors Field had a favorable rating in every offensive category.
- Progressive Field – MIN vs CLE – In 2015, Progressive Field was the second ranked ballpark for hitters. Progressive had favorable ratings in runs, singles, doubles and walks.
- Safeco Field – LAA vs SEA – As I’ve mentioned during this series, no real advantage for either team here, as both were in the bottom five last season. Safeco did not have a single favorable rating for hitters last season.
- Dodger Stadium – STL vs LAD – Dodger Stadium was in the bottom 10 last season for hitters. It only carried a favorable rating in home runs, which checked in at the bare minimum of 1.000.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Zach Davies||.961||.357||Kevin Gausman||.261||.098|
|Matt Cain.||936||.351||Danny Duffy||.300||.150|
|Matt Moore||.845||.324||Dan Straily||.488||.094|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Zach Davies||.943||.327||Joe Ross||.439||.149|
|Sonny Gray||.900||.284||Aaron Sanchez||.489||.205|
|Cesar Vargas||.889||.316||Jose Fernandez||.552||.205|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Oswaldo Arcia||Trevor Bauer||10||6|
|Brandon Crawford||Rubby De La Rosa||14||2.5|
|Mike Trout||Felix Hernandez||68||2.47|
- Granted, it’s only been ten at-bats, but what Arcia has done in this matchup is crazy. Arcia is 5-10 off of Bauer with four home runs and seven RBIs.
- Next up is Brandon Crawford taking on Rubby De La Rosa. Crawford is 5-14 with two home runs and three RBIs.
- Finally, Trout vs Hernandez comes up on this list every time they face each other. Trout is 25-68 with four doubles, two triples, five home runs and 15 RBIs.
Pitcher to Build Around
Jose Fernandez – MIA vs. WAS – $11,700 Believe me, I feel like I’m cheating you, the people, when I pick an obvious play at one of these positions. However, I have a couple of thoughts for this one. Both of these teams are coming off a double header last night, so it makes me wonder if we’ll see the Nationals “B” team take the field today. If that’s the case, I’ll love Fernandez even more. The Nationals land right around the league average in strikeouts against right-handed pitchers with a 19.6 K%. Fernandez has been mowing people down at an alarming rate with his 12.8 K/9. The only gripe here is the BB/9 that Fernandez owns at this point, at 4.4. The Nationals currently rank sixth in BB% at 9.6 so that could spell trouble. However, I’m hoping for that less than stellar Nationals lineup which would boost the chances of a solid game for Fernanez. If you’re not a fan of Jose, Kevin Gausman is another option. Just be careful of the wind.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Josh Donaldson – TOR vs TEX (Cesar Ramos) – $5,500 – Oh, Donaldson is facing a left-handed pitcher? Where do I sign up? Cesar Ramos is drawing the start for the Rangers today as Cole Hamels nurses a groin injury. On the season, Donaldson owns an insane .528 wOBA with an ISO of .371. Even with the majority of his power coming against right-handed pitching, Donaldson should be worth grabbing today in this plus matchup.
Save Big by Drafting…
Jason Castro – HOU vs BOS (Sean O’Sullivan) – $3,600 – Grabbing a Red Sox or Astros stack got a hell of a lot tougher, as the majority of their salaries shot up for today. Castro is still at a reasonable $3,600 and could be a sneaky play for today. His overall numbers aren’t that impressive, but he’s averaging 9.8 FPPG over his last 10. Over that span, Castro is 10-31 with four doubles, two home runs and five RBIs. Facing Sean O’Sullivan, who owns a career .390 wOBA against lefties, is the cherry on top
Stack Em Up
CHC vs. PIT (Gerrit Cole) – One stack that should go overlooked for today will be the Cubs. In a percieved tough matchup against Gerrit Cole, the Cubs are stacked with what he struggles agaisnt the most, lefties. With Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo and Bedn Zobrist all with the capabilites to hit from the left side, Cole could run into some early trouble here. On the season, Cole owns a .335 wOBA against lefties compared to his .282 against righties.