Thursday night brings us a nine-game slate that includes a game at Coors Field and only three pitchers with a salary of at least $10K. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners – Marco Estrada ($8,500) – Estrada and the Blue Jays are heavy favorites tonight as they take on the visiting Seattle Mariners. Estrada has only pitched in two games at home, but he hasn’t allowed a run yet in 13 innings on seven hits with 15 Ks and five walks. The Mariners have hit decently on the road with a .319 wOBA, a .323 OBP and a .410 SLG. They’ve limited their strikeouts as well, owning just a 19.9 K%, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the league. I think Estrada can be a decent SP2 tonight, as his only two blemishes this season have come against the Tampa Bay Rays. Otherwise, Estrada is averaging 20.86 FPPG.

Highest Totals

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies – 10.5 projected runs – Last night this game had a projected run total of 11.5 runs, and as of this afternoon, it’s dropped a run to 10.5, which is significant. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Tyler Anderson will take the mound for their teams tonight with the Rockies holding the slight advantage of 5.5 projected runs. Both of these pitchers have faced the opposing team twice already with Anderson averaging 7.5 FPPG and Ryu 13.2 FPPG. Even with the drop, I still think this game is more than viable to target, as both pitchers have been mediocre at best on the mound thus far.

Weather Concerns

Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals (Nationals Park) –  A chance of rain will linger all throughout the night in Washington. We could see a delay here, but I think the probability of a PPD is fairly low.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – L.A. Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies – As always, Coors Field is our number one ballpark when it’s on any slate. All offensive categories were favored here last season.
  • Chase Field – Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays – Chase Field checks in as our second most favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. Last season, all offensive categories were favored here.
  • Angel Stadium of Anaheim – Detroit Tigers vs. L.A. Angels – The Angels will play host to the most unfavorable ballpark of the night as they welcome in the Tigers. Home runs were the only category favored here last season.
  • Guaranteed Rate Park – Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox – Guaranteed Rate Park is our second least favorable ballpark on this slate tonight. Last season, only home runs and triples were favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Martin Perez1.003.419Dallas Keuchel.329.100
Tyler Andeson.947.270Derek Holland.411.158
J.C. Ramirez.800.267Michael Fulmer.421.154

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Bronson Arroyo1.003.314Dallas Keuchel.588.195
Clayton Richard.981.345Dylan Bundy.589.225
Tyler Anderson.938.308J.C. Ramirez.633.238

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Nolan ArenadoHyun-Jin Ryu123.6
Carlos GomezClayton Richard103.3
Brandon BeltBronson Arroyo142.8

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Michael Fulmer – DET vs. LAA – $10,500 – We have a lot to like about Fulmer tonight as he takes on a weak Angels offense. Coming into tonight, they’ve only managed a .289 wOBA against righties with a .296 OBP and a .366 SLG. They aren’t striking out a ton, but they do own a 21.2 K%, which is good for 16th in the league. Fulmer has been downright nasty on the road this season, averaging 23.8 FPPG with a .260 wOBA and a K/9 of 9.1. Mike Trout is still not confirmed for this game as of yet, which would boost Fulmer even more if Trout is forced to miss tonight. 

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Nolan Arenado – COL vs. LAD – $5,300 – I’m usually not a huge fan of showcasing players at Coors Field because, well, you know that already. However, I’m more than happy to make an exception for Arenado tonight. He’s been great against lefties thus far, owning a .610 wOBA with a .476 OBP and a 1.000 SLG. Although it’s still a bit early for Ryu, he is allowing a .352 wOBA to righties with a .529 SLG and five of his six home runs.

Save Big by Drafting…

Trey Mancini – BAL vs. WAS – $3,100 – This is just too cheap for Mancini, who’s averaging just under eight FPPG in his last 10 games. In that span, Mancini is 11-36 with three doubles, two home runs, nine RBI and three runs scored. When you pair that with his .595 wOBA against righties on the road, you’ll understand why $3,100 feels like madness.

Stack Em Up

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners (Chase De Jong) – I don’t believe in De Jong in the least bit, which is why I think the Blue Jays will have success against him tonight. I’m sure we’ve all been burned by the Blue Jays once already this season, but I feel confident tonight won’t be one of them. De Jong is allowing a .471 wOBA on the road thus far with a .677 SLG and a .459 OBP. It’s a small sample size, but he’s allowing a 35% hard-hit rate to opposing hitters while only throwing 54% of his total pitches for strikes this season.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.