WATCH: PITCHING DUEL PRICE VS. PINEDA


Tuesday night brings us an eight-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies – Jon Lester ($9,700) –  Lester and the Cubs are the favorites on the night as they take on the Rockies at Wrigley Field. Lester has been his best, by far, at home this season, averaging 22.1 FPPG in seven starts with a .245 wOBA and a .294 SLG. The Rockies have been decent on the road, sporting a .315 wOBA with a .322 OBP and a fairly high 23.5 K%. The Rockies also have the lowest projected run total of the night at 3.6 runs. I feel confident enough in Lester at Wrigley that he can pull off a good start here, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s only $9,700. Besides Lance McCullers, Lester has the best matchup out of the higher-priced pitchers tonight.

Highest Totals

EDITOR’S NOTE: Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Daniel Murphy are all OUT of the Nationals’ lineup tonight.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals – 9.5 projected runs – We have multiple games with a projected run total of 9.5 runs, but the highest team total on this slate belongs to the Nationals as they take on Alec Asher. He’s making his fourth start of the season where he’s had decent success. As a starter, Asher has posted a .316 wOBA with a .468 SLG with four home runs in 20.2 innings. That’s all well and good, but he’s taking on one of the most dynamic lineups in all of baseball. At home, the Nationals own the second-highest wOBA in the league at .361 with a .499 SLG and a .360 OBP. This is certainly not a spot to get cute and roster Asher, as I can’t imagine a scenario where he shuts this team down.

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns tonight!

Park Factors

Now that we’ve entered the month of June, I’ll be switching over to the 2017 Park Factor stats.

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • SunTrust Park – Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves – SunTrust Park checks in as our most favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. So far this season, all offensive categories except triples have been favored here.
  • Wrigley Field – Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs – Wrigley Field lands as our number two ballpark for hitters tonight. All offensive categories except walks have been favored in 2017.
  • Tropicana Field – Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays – As always, Tropicana Field lands as one of the worst ballparks for hitters on the slate. Triples are the only offensive category that’s been favored here.
  • Nationals Park – Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals – Nationals Park is the second worst ballpark on this slate for hitters. Home runs and singles are the only categories favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Joe Ross1.032.338Derek Holland.436.184
Kyle Gibson.972.337Jon Lester.578.230
Gerrit Cole.881.276Christian Bergman.614.212

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Christian Bergman1.034.343Edinson Volquez.587.190
Kyle Gibson.923.310Lance McCullers.621.196
R.A. Dickey.921.295Tyler Chatwood.708.213

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Mitch MorelandMichael Pineda113.72
Evan LongoriaDerek Holland282.89
Didi GregoriusDavid Price212.52

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Lance McCullers – HOU vs. KC – $11,200 – McCullers is the only pitcher that’s priced over $10K tonight, so fitting him into your lineup shouldn’t be difficult. He’ll likely be popular, but he’s taking on the Royals who own a 21.1 K% and a .299 wOBA against righties. Admittedly, McCullers hasn’t been as sharp on the road, but he still sports a .286 wOBA with a K/9 of 9.1. Nonetheless, he’ll likely be popular on this slate in arguably one of the top matchups. 

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Anthony Rizzo – CHI vs. COL – $4,900 – Rizzo has been crushing the ball as late, averaging 10.8 FPPG over his last 10 contests. During that span, he has 10 hits with three doubles and two home runs. Tonight he’ll face off against Tyler Chatwood, who is allowing a .346 wOBA to lefties with five of his 10 home runs allowed. Again, with pitching relatively cheap tonight, Rizzo at $4,900 shouldn’t be much of a problem to fit in your lineup.

Save Big by Drafting…

Evan Longoria – TB vs. CWS – $3,600 – Longoria is another batter that has been hitting the ball very well as of late, but he’ll barely make a dent in your salary cap. At $3,600, Longoria comes into this game riding a 9.4 FPPG average over his last 10 games. He has a very favorable matchup against Derek Holland, who is getting crushed by righties to the tune of a .362 wOBA with all 11 of his home runs allowed. Longoria has done his best work at home this season, making him my favorite value play tonight.

Stack Em Up

Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins (Kyle Gibson) – Kyle Gibson has pitched “better” as of late, but that isn’t saying much. Even with two decent starts under his belt, Gibson still carries a .369 wOBA on the road with a .494 SLG and a .367 OBP. Amazingly, out of all the runs Gibson has allowed, he’s done a great job of keeping the ball in the park with only four home runs allowed. With a 53% hard hit rate by opposing hitters over his last three games, I think that number is destined to climb.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.