Monday night brings us a seven-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Chicago Cubs vs. Miami Marlins – Eddie Butler ($5,400) –  Eddie Butler and the Cubs are the favorites tonight, as they’ll be taking on the Miami Marlins at Wrigley Field. This will be Butler’s fifth start of the season and third at Wrigley. The right-hander has been decent at best thus far, inducing a ton of groundballs and only allowing one home run on the year. His control has been an issue, as he currently owns a 14:13 K:BB ratio, but he may be able to get away with that a bit tonight as the Marlins are 25th in walks vs. RHP. The Marlins are not nearly half as effective against righties as they are lefties, posting a .315 wOBA with a .321 OBP and a .410 SLG. Butler is extremely cheap on the night, but I wouldn’t expect anything big out of him. He’s merely a salary saver at best in GPPs.

Highest Totals

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves – 10 projected runs – This game opened at 9.5 projected runs and quickly moved up to 10 overnight. Nick Pivetta and Bartolo Colon will take the hill for their respected teams with the Braves tabbed for 5.2 runs. In four starts this season, Pivetta has yet to make it out of the fifth inning, as he’s let his pitch count run extremely high in all four starts. Pivetta has also been plagued by the home run ball, allowing five in his four starts. He does have some strikeout potential, owner of a 9.7 K/9 thus far, but the Braves haven’t been striking out a lot with a 19.6 K%. The game should feature plenty of offense, and I think a stack of either team will bring you points tonight.

Weather Concerns

Philadephia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves (SunTrust Park) – This game will feature a chance of thunderstorms all throughout the game. It’s worth looking into to, but as of this morning, the chances of these storms were fairly low.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds (Great American Ballpark) – There are chances of thunderstorms this afternoon in Cincinnati, but they look like they should be cleared up by first pitch. However, it’s always safe to double-check at game time.

Park Factors

Now that we’ve entered the month of June, I’ll be switching over to the 2017 Park Factor stats.

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Miller Park – San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Miller Park is our number one ballpark on the night for hitters. So far this season, all offensive categories except triples are favored here.
  • SunTrust Park – Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves – SunTrust Park checks in at our second most favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. All offensive categories except triples are favored here.
  • Kauffman Stadium – Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals – Kauffman Stadium is our worst ballpark for hitters on the night. Thus far in 2017, only doubles are favored here.
  • Dodger Stadium – Washington Nationals vs. L.A. Dodgers – Dodger Stadium is our second worst ballpark for hitters tonight. Home runs and doubles are favored here.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
J.A. Happ1.167.250Sean Manaea.302.054
Hyun-Jin Ryu.985.333Gio Gonzalez.536.204
Jeff Samardzija.909.293Dan Straily.563.181

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Nick Pivetta1.212.367Eddie Butler.576.200
Mike Fiers1.200.333Carlos Martinez.578.196
Bartolo Colon.990.264Jeff Samardzija.616.241

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Carlos BeltranIan Kennedy242.41
Zack CozartCarlos Martinez192.1

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

J.A. Happ – TOR vs. OAK – $7,300 – Tonight features a fairly rough selection of pitchers in some tough matchups. We have Happ at just $7,300 tonight taking on an Athletics club that struggles against lefties and playing in Oakland. Coming into this game, the A’s own a .293 wOBA against lefties with a .298 OBP and a .380 SLG. They also are one of the top teams in the league in K% against lefties with a 25.9% mark. Happ should be allowed to stay in longer tonight and has the strikeout upside to vastly exceed his price point.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Chris Taylor – LAD vs. WAS – $4,500 – I love this matchup for Taylor, even if it takes place at Dodger Stadium. Gio Gonzalez has been getting whacked around by righties this year, posting a .346 wOBA with a .451 SLG and all 10 of his home runs. Taylor, on the other hand, has been having his way with lefties. The owner of a .485 wOBA, Taylor has a .667 SLG and a .486 OBP this season. A $4,500 salary feels like the perfect price point for him, as he’s averaged 9.6 FPPG over is last 10 games.

Save Big by Drafting…

Kevin Pillar – TOR vs. OAK – $3,300 – The Blue Jays leadoff man will take on Sean Manaea tonight in Oakland. Again, park factor certainly isn’t in his favor, but that’s the issue with the majority of these games tonight. With that being said, Pillar is sporting a .392 wOBA against lefties with a .375 OBP and a .560 SLG. His price point being so low and batting leadoff makes him such a valuable commodity that I find myself rolling with him every time he faces off against a left-handed pitcher.

Stack Em Up

Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals (Ian Kennedy) – Things have not been going well for Kennedy as of late. Over his last five starts, he’s averaging just 4.4 FPPG with seven home runs allowed and not making it past 5.1 innings. To make matters worse, he faces the hottest hitting team in baseball, the Houston Astros. This is going to be an extremely hard stack to fit in, as Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correra are the three most expensive hitters on this slate. Those three combined run you for $17,000, leaving you with an average of $4,700 per player, including your two pitchers. With that being said, they should have no issues with Kennedy tonight and could end up being one of the top stacks on the night.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.