Monday night brings us a seven-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Chicago Cubs vs. Miami Marlins – Eddie Butler ($5,400) – Eddie Butler and the Cubs are the favorites tonight, as they’ll be taking on the Miami Marlins at Wrigley Field. This will be Butler’s fifth start of the season and third at Wrigley. The right-hander has been decent at best thus far, inducing a ton of groundballs and only allowing one home run on the year. His control has been an issue, as he currently owns a 14:13 K:BB ratio, but he may be able to get away with that a bit tonight as the Marlins are 25th in walks vs. RHP. The Marlins are not nearly half as effective against righties as they are lefties, posting a .315 wOBA with a .321 OBP and a .410 SLG. Butler is extremely cheap on the night, but I wouldn’t expect anything big out of him. He’s merely a salary saver at best in GPPs.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves – 10 projected runs – This game opened at 9.5 projected runs and quickly moved up to 10 overnight. Nick Pivetta and Bartolo Colon will take the hill for their respected teams with the Braves tabbed for 5.2 runs. In four starts this season, Pivetta has yet to make it out of the fifth inning, as he’s let his pitch count run extremely high in all four starts. Pivetta has also been plagued by the home run ball, allowing five in his four starts. He does have some strikeout potential, owner of a 9.7 K/9 thus far, but the Braves haven’t been striking out a lot with a 19.6 K%. The game should feature plenty of offense, and I think a stack of either team will bring you points tonight.
Philadephia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves (SunTrust Park) – This game will feature a chance of thunderstorms all throughout the game. It’s worth looking into to, but as of this morning, the chances of these storms were fairly low.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds (Great American Ballpark) – There are chances of thunderstorms this afternoon in Cincinnati, but they look like they should be cleared up by first pitch. However, it’s always safe to double-check at game time.
Now that we’ve entered the month of June, I’ll be switching over to the 2017 Park Factor stats.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.
- Miller Park – San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Miller Park is our number one ballpark on the night for hitters. So far this season, all offensive categories except triples are favored here.
- SunTrust Park – Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves – SunTrust Park checks in at our second most favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. All offensive categories except triples are favored here.
- Kauffman Stadium – Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals – Kauffman Stadium is our worst ballpark for hitters on the night. Thus far in 2017, only doubles are favored here.
- Dodger Stadium – Washington Nationals vs. L.A. Dodgers – Dodger Stadium is our second worst ballpark for hitters tonight. Home runs and doubles are favored here.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|J.A. Happ||1.167||.250||Sean Manaea||.302||.054|
|Hyun-Jin Ryu||.985||.333||Gio Gonzalez||.536||.204|
|Jeff Samardzija||.909||.293||Dan Straily||.563||.181|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Nick Pivetta||1.212||.367||Eddie Butler||.576||.200|
|Mike Fiers||1.200||.333||Carlos Martinez||.578||.196|
|Bartolo Colon||.990||.264||Jeff Samardzija||.616||.241|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Carlos Beltran||Ian Kennedy||24||2.41|
|Zack Cozart||Carlos Martinez||19||2.1|
*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)
Pitcher to Build Around
J.A. Happ – TOR vs. OAK – $7,300 – Tonight features a fairly rough selection of pitchers in some tough matchups. We have Happ at just $7,300 tonight taking on an Athletics club that struggles against lefties and playing in Oakland. Coming into this game, the A’s own a .293 wOBA against lefties with a .298 OBP and a .380 SLG. They also are one of the top teams in the league in K% against lefties with a 25.9% mark. Happ should be allowed to stay in longer tonight and has the strikeout upside to vastly exceed his price point.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Chris Taylor – LAD vs. WAS – $4,500 – I love this matchup for Taylor, even if it takes place at Dodger Stadium. Gio Gonzalez has been getting whacked around by righties this year, posting a .346 wOBA with a .451 SLG and all 10 of his home runs. Taylor, on the other hand, has been having his way with lefties. The owner of a .485 wOBA, Taylor has a .667 SLG and a .486 OBP this season. A $4,500 salary feels like the perfect price point for him, as he’s averaged 9.6 FPPG over is last 10 games.
Save Big by Drafting…
Kevin Pillar – TOR vs. OAK – $3,300 – The Blue Jays leadoff man will take on Sean Manaea tonight in Oakland. Again, park factor certainly isn’t in his favor, but that’s the issue with the majority of these games tonight. With that being said, Pillar is sporting a .392 wOBA against lefties with a .375 OBP and a .560 SLG. His price point being so low and batting leadoff makes him such a valuable commodity that I find myself rolling with him every time he faces off against a left-handed pitcher.
Stack Em Up
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals (Ian Kennedy) – Things have not been going well for Kennedy as of late. Over his last five starts, he’s averaging just 4.4 FPPG with seven home runs allowed and not making it past 5.1 innings. To make matters worse, he faces the hottest hitting team in baseball, the Houston Astros. This is going to be an extremely hard stack to fit in, as Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correra are the three most expensive hitters on this slate. Those three combined run you for $17,000, leaving you with an average of $4,700 per player, including your two pitchers. With that being said, they should have no issues with Kennedy tonight and could end up being one of the top stacks on the night.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.