WATCH: STACK TO CONSIDER TORONTO BLUE JAYS


Thursday night brings us an eight-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

David Price vs. Minnesota Twins – Boston Red Sox ($7,700) – The Red Sox are a heavy favorite tonight as they wrap up their series with the Twins. David Price will take the hill for the third time this season at Fenway Park. Price hasn’t dazzled so far this season, owning an overall .331 wOBA with a .443 SLG and K/9 of 7.6. Usually, I would suggest staying away from Price until he brings some consistency, but his salary has dropped so low we are almost forced to consider him. With a $7,700 price tag, the potential for Price to reach value becomes all the more realistic against a Twins team owns a .309 wOBA and a 20.7 K% against lefties. Again, I don’t LOVE this spot for Price, but that salary makes him enticing on tonight’s short slate.

Highest Total

New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox – 10.5 projected runs – The Yankees own the highest run total on the night at 5.9 projected runs taking on James Shields. He’s only made two starts at home this season, but Shields is picking up right where he left off last season, allowing four home runs in those starts. Since returning from the disabled list, Shields has pitched 8.2 innings allowing nine runs on 14 hits with an 8:4 K:BB ratio. The Yankees will likely be a popular stack tonight and rightfully so. On the road this year, the Yankees are sporting a .329 wOBA with a .422 SLG and a .339 OBP.

Weather Concerns

New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox (Guaranteed Rate Park) – We could see some rain later in the evening, but that timeline is bound to change throughout the day. Take a closer look as we get closer to first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Angel Stadium of Anaheim – L.A. Dodgers vs. L.A. Angels – A park usually not known for it’s offense, L.A. is our most favorable ballpark tonight. All offensive categories except doubles have been favored here in 2017.
  • Guaranteed Rate Park – New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox – Guaranteed Rate Park is our number two ballpark for hitters tonight. Runs, home runs and walks have been favored here thus far.
  • Marlins Park – New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins – Marlins Park is our worst ballpark of the night for hitters. Walks are the only category favored here.
  • PNC Park – Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPNC Park is our second-worst ballpark for hitters tonight. Singles and doubles have been the only categories favoring hitters here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Dinelson Lamet1.147.322Jose Urena.578.192
J.C. Ramirez1.065.291David Price.594.261
James Shields.969.261Jameson Taillon.616.241

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Kyle Gibson.922.323Dinelson Lamet.471.119
Jameson Taillon.845.286Clayton Kershaw.558.189
Jose Urena.836.264Chris Archer.602.210

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Kendrys MoralesUbaldo Jimenez212.52
Ryan BraunHomer Bailey372.1

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

J.A. Happ – TOR vs. BAL – $8,700 – Happ is the third highest priced pitcher on the night but checks in at a reasonable $8,700. Happ is in the midst of a stellar three-game stretch that’s seen him allow just four runs on 18 hits in 19.1 innings. Also in that stretch, Happ has a near perfect 22:1 K:BB ratio. Tonight he faces the Orioles for the third time this season and currently possesses one of the highest K% against lefties at 25.8, which is ranked fourth in the league. In his two prior meetings with the O’s, Happ is averaging 18.1 fantasy points allowing four runs on nine hits in 11.1 innings with a 12:0 K:BB ratio.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Aaron Judge – NYY vs. CWS – $5,700 – If I’m paying a big time salary for a hitter tonight, it has to be Judge against James Shields. The home run potential for Judge is through the roof, as Shields is averaging just under 2.5 HR allowed per nine innings this season. On top of that, Shields is averaging a batted ball distance of 224 ft to go with a 33% hard hit rate to opposing hitters. I have a feeling we’ll “All Rise” for Judge tonight.

Save Big by Drafting…

Kendrys Morales – TOR vs. BAL – $3,700 – Morales is such a cheap option for a hitter that has the home run potential he possesses. He’ll take on Ubaldo Jimenez tonight, who is allowing a .435 wOBA to lefties with a .673 SLG and 11 of his 16 home runs on the season. Of his 15 home runs on the year, Morales has hit six of them at home against right-handed pitching, setting him up for a very favorable matchup tonight with a cheap salary.

Stack Em Up

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds (Homer Bailey) – Homer Bailey will be making his second start of the season after getting shelled by the Nationals, allowing eight runs in just 1.2 innings. It doesn’t get much easier for him tonight, as he takes on the Brewers at home this evening. On the road, the Brewers own a .323 wOBA with a .429 SLG and a .324 OBP. I like the Brewers as an alternative to the chalk tonight.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.