We have a 10 game slate on tap for tonight that will feature a Coors Field game and three pitchers that will cost at least $12,200. Let’s get you set for tonight, and as always; you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
CHC (-265) vs. CIN – Jake Arrieta – It feels like Arrieta has been all over the place as of late. Prime example is his last three starts against the Cardinals, Pirates and Braves. The Braves start saw Arrieta go seven innings, but only was able to grab three strikeouts for 17.5 fantasy points. Next start, he earns 36.5 fantasy points against the Pirates. In his last start, 16.5 against the Cardinals, which to be fair, he’s had issues with that team already this season. So what will this start against the Reds bring tonight? This is the second time Arrieta will face the Reds, where he earned his highest score of the season with 43.9 fantasy points. In that start, he threw a no-hitter with a 6:4 K:BB ratio. Even with his slight inconsistency here and there, Arrieta has been a solid option as of late. My only concern is his innings, as he’s gone at least seven innings in two of his last six starts.
CLE (-173) vs. ATL – Trevor Bauer – Bauer and the Indians get the nod tonight over the Braves at Turner Field. Bauer will be coming off the best start of his season, where he pitched a complete game against the Rays, allowing one run on three hits with a 10:1 K:BB ratio. Going up against a similar offense like the Braves (yeah that’s right, I just compared those two) could result in another similar start for Bauer. Coming into tonight, the Braves own a .286 wOBA against righties with a .309 OBP and a .347 SLG. The strikeouts do remain low, as their 19.2 K% ranks 21st in the league. This will obviously bring some downside to taking Bauer, but overall he’s in a great spot here.
TOR vs. COL – 11.5 runs – – Another Coors Field series to screw up any and all plans that we had for this slate tonight. This will feature a good pitching matchup of Marco Estrada taking on Jon Gray. However, in the same breath of saying a good pitching matchup, we can also say that Coors Field does evil things to talented pitchers. The Rockies continue to crush at Coors Field, owning a .384 wOBA with a .374 OBP and a .537 SLG, all league leaders.
The Blue Jays have been hitting at a decent clip on the road, owning a .318 wOBA with a .313 OBP and a .420 SLG. They’ve been hitting well as of late, and this series in Coors Field should be a nice boost to their numbers. Even with two of their best on the mound today, this should be a great spot for both teams.
NYM vs. WAS (Nationals Park) – This game will have a chance of thunderstorms all throughout the night, so it doesn’t look as if a delay would really help the matter. Keep an eye on this one as we get closer to first pitch.
CLE vs. ATL (Turner Field) – Same situation with this game here, as thunderstorms will threaten to delay or even PPD this game. As of this afternoon, this game has a lesser chance than WAS to see storms, so keep an eye here.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.
- Coors Field – TOR vs COL – Like you didn’t know this already. Coors Field ranks as the number one park for hitters with a favorable rating in every offensive category.
- Kauffman Stadium – STL vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium currently ranks third for hitters in the 2016 season. Coming into tonight, it has a favorable rating in runs, singles, doubles, triples and walks.
- Tropicana Field – BOS vs TBR – Currently ranked as the second worst stadium for hitters this season, Tropicana does not have a single category favoring hitters.
- Nationals Park – NYM vs WAs – From one bad park to another, the Mets visit the Nationals tonight. Nationals Park only favors hitters in walks this season.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Colin McHugh||.881||.311||Danny Duffy||.491||.190|
|Ivan Nova||.819||.260||Eduardo Rodriguez||.494||.200|
|Jeff Samardzija||.800||.272||Jake Arrieta||.554||.191|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Eduardo Rodriguez||.930||.275||Jake Arrieta||.452||.163|
|Robbie Ray||.875||.296||Noah Syndergaard||.508||.200|
|Ivan Nova||.843||.314||Marco Estrada||.525||.149|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Jose Altuve||Matt Shoemaker||14||3|
|Albert Pujols||Collin McHugh||17||2.47|
- Another lackluster day of BvP is making me question my allegiance to such a highly debated stat. Nonetheless, Altuve is 6-14 with a double and two solo shots off of Shoemaker.
- The other BvP we have for tonight is Pujols taking on McHugh. Pujols has gone 6-17 with a home run, four RBIs and three walks.
Pitcher to Build Around
Robbie Ray – PHI vs ARZ – $9,300 I have a feeling that I may have Ray higher than the rest of the industry, but that’s fine. I REALLY like Ray in this spot for a numbers of reasons that I’ll hit upon quickly. Overall, Ray doesn’t have great numbers, which I think will turn a lot of people away. However, Ray has some sneaky strikeout potential, as he owns a 10.4 K/9 this season. Coming into tonight, the Phillies are one of the worst teams against left-handed pitching, owning a .264 wOBA with a .279 OBP and a .330 SLG. Tie that together with their 23.6 K% and this is quite the matchup for Ray. I think Ray is in line for a solid score tonight.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Michael Saunders – TOR vs. COL (Jon Gray) – $4,900 – Saunders at $4,900 at Coors Field feels good to me. I was honestly expecting it to be much higher, so I was pleasantly surprised to see he was a hair under the $5K price tag. Saunders against a right-handed pitcher at Coors Field gets me all the feels for this start. Against righties, Saunders owns a .389 wOBA with a .546 SLG with nine of his 15 home runs this season. Batting in the heart of this Blue Jays lineup makes this a great spot for him that I feel like he would be a tough fade, even if you weren’t going the Coors Field route tonight. Gray has allowed a .384 wOBA to lefties at Coors Field this season with four of his nine home runs allowed.
Save Big by Drafting…
Stephen Vogt – OAK vs. SFG (Jeff Samardzjia) – $3,200 – Finding value on the slate tonight is tough to come by. I think I went through the list numerous times before landing on Vogt. He faces off against Jeff Samardzija, who has really struggled on the mound lately; averaging 7.4 FPPG in his last five starts. Lefties have been tagging him especially hard, as he owns a .337 wOBA against them with a .477 SLG and seven of his 13 home runs allowed. It gets even worse for Samardzija on the road, as these numbers jump up to a .358 wOBA with a .535 SLG.