MLB IN 90 SECONDS JOSE PIRELA


Friday night brings us a huge 15-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

Stephen Strasburg vs. Cincinnati Reds – Stephen Strasburg ($12,300) – The Nationals are huge favorites tonight as they begin their series against the Reds. Stephen Strasburg will be on the hill for the Nationals as he takes on this Reds team for this first time this season. Strasburg has been his best on the road, averaging 23.7 fantasy points in eight road starts with a .257 wOBA, a .317 SLG and a K/9 of 9.9. Over his last two starts, Strasburg has been hittable, allowing eight runs on 13 hits in 10.1 innings with three home runs. It’s a bit concerning since these two games came against the Braves and Mets, and now tonight he takes on a good hitting Reds club at home. They’re currently posting a .341 wOBA with a .470 SLG and a .337 OBP. Personally, I’m not a huge fan of Strasburg tonight, as his mediocre performances lately coupled with his high salary doesn’t exactly bode well0. On a full 15-game slate like tonight, I feel as though you have safer routes to take than this matchup.

Highest Totals

L.A. Angels vs. Boston Red Sox – 10.5 projected runs – This game owns the highest projected run total of the night, with the Red Sox owning the highest team total. At 5.9 runs, Boston is expected to do some serious damage against Angels starter Alex Meyer. On the surface, it looks as if Meyer has been solid all around, but his road numbers have been the killer here. In four road starts, Meyer is posting a .355 wOBA with a .405 SLG and a .394 OBP. His upside comes regarding his strikeout abilities, as he owns a fantastic 12.1 K/9 on the road. For what it’s worth, the Red Sox have been average at best at Fenway this year, sporting a .330 wOBA with a .406 SLG.

Weather Concerns

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves (SunTrust Park) – Nothing overly major here, but we could see a delay midway through this matchup.

L.A. Angels vs. Boston Red Sox (Fenway Park) – Fenway Park could start in a delay, but once they officially start, it should be smooth sailing from that point on.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field – Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Chase Field has been one of the best ballparks for offense this season. Heading into tonight, all offensive categories get the nod here.
  • Yankee Stadium – Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees – Yankee Stadium is our second most favorable ballpark for hitters on the night. Runs, home runs and doubles are all favored.
  • AT&T Park – New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants – As always, AT&T Park is home to the pitchers. No offensive categories get the nod at this stadium.
  • Busch Stadium – Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Busch Stadium is another ballpark that heavily favors pitchers. Triples are the only category that gets the nod for hitters.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Ubaldo Jimenez1.012.279Ty Blach.522.200
Mike Foltynewicz.941.348Alex Wood.536.211
John Lackey.896.281Jose Urena.562.182

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Joe Musgrove.896.299Alex Wood.481.178
Patrick Corbin.896.317Chris Archer.572.194
Adam Wainwright.890.321Alex Meyer.589.189

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Brett GardnerYu Darvish114.63
Mike NapoliMasahiro Tanaka134.07
Kenny VargasTrevor Bauer182.72

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Alex Wood – LAD vs. COL – $9,600 – I’m shocked that Wood is still under $10K in salary, even if it’s by the slightest amount. Wood has truly been fantastic all season long and faces off against the Rockies for the second time. His first matchup took place AT Coors Field, and he turned in a gem, tossing six shutout innings with five hits and a 10:1 K:BB ratio. The Rockies aren’t the greatest hitting club on the road and sport just a .312 wOBA with a .406 SLG and a 23.5 K%. At Dodger Stadium, Wood owns a .209 wOBA with a .207 SLG with a K/9 of 11.3.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Justin Bour – MIA vs. CHC – $4,500 – John Lackey has been blasted by lefties all season long, so why not get Bour on your roster? Averaging 9.2 fantasy points in 34 home games, Bour owns a .398 wOBA against righties at home with a .594 SLG with eight of his 18 total home runs. Lackey has been no stranger to giving up home runs this year, as lefties have 11 of his 20 total with five of those coming on the road.

Save Big by Drafting…

Aaron Altherr – PHI vs. ARI – $3,700 – Altherr is a sneaky play in the outfield tonight as he sets to take on Patrick Corbin. Altherr has been flashing some power as of late, hitting three home runs over his last 10 games with a double and six RBIs. On the road against lefties, Altherr is posting a .451 wOBA with a 677 SLG and .417 OBP. As you’d expect, Corbin hasn’t been strong at home against righties, owning a .345 wOBA with five of his 15 home runs allowed.

Stack Em Up

Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees (Masahiro Tanaka) – Tanaka has been a nightmare for the Yankees and has a very unfavorable matchup tonight, at home, against the Texas Rangers. Even with the Rangers posting some of the worst road numbers in the league, I still have no doubt they’ll be able to handle Tanaka. At home, Tanaka is posting a .365 wOBA with a .578 SLG with 10 of his 21 total home runs allowed. A Rangers stack would be very cheap on the night, leaving you plenty of flexibility to fit in some high priced players.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.