Saturday comes with a split slate. The early action offers six games including a likely high-scoring affair at Coors Field. The late games come with nine games and nice variety of players to choose from. Play them both with help from today’s MLB Cheat Sheet!
Heaviest Pitcher Favorites
1) Max Scherzer vs. PIT (-130), 6.5 Over/Under ($12,600) – Scherzer is coming off of a huge start where he racked up over 60 DraftKings fantasy points. The biggest concern here is that he’s thrown 119 and 116 pitches in his last two starts, so we could be looking at a slightly reduced workload for the Nationals ace today. Besides that, the matchup is really strong and he obviously has the metrics to merit rostering him in the early slate.
2) Jesse Hahn vs. LAA (-129), 7.5 Over/Under ($6,200) – Hahn isn’t quite the stud that Scherzer is, but he’s less than half the price and faces an Angels offense that has been far from impressive this year. He has a pair of 20 fantasy point efforts in his last three games, with a negative effort sandwiched in between. He isn’t the lock that Scherzer is but he makes for a nice tournament play on Saturday.
1) John Lackey vs. PHI (-183), 7.5 Over/Under ($7900) – The biggest risk for Lackey here is the weather. There are some early thunderstorm concerns in Philly for right around game time so be sure to check back on that before locking him into your teams. Besides that, he gets the worst offense in baseball and is a huge road favorite. I like his price point and his chances on Saturday.
2) Corey Kluber vs. TBR (-178), 7 Over/Under ($10400) – He’s the best pitcher on the slate and the moneyline on this game reflects that. Kluber is a huge home favorite against a pretty soft Rays lineup. The Rays don’t strikeout a ton so there’s some concern here but not a whole lot for Kluber, who can get K’s against pretty much anyone.
Top Overall Game Over/Unders
1) Milwaukee at Colorado (10.5 Over/Under) – No surprise here, the game at Coors has a huge over/under. 10.5 runs is pretty much par for the course at Coors though and you should approach the match up accordingly. DK salaries are a bit inflated for the hitters here but with Chad Bettis and Kyle Lohse, a pair of fly ball pitchers, taking the bump you can pencil in a number of HRs today.
2) Baltimore at Toronto (9 Over/Under) – If you’re looking to avoid an all-out Coors stack, there are actually a trio of games between 8.5 and 9 runs in terms of O/U but this one looks especially tasty. Mark Buehrle is on the bump for Toronto and right handed bats like Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Manny Machado and JJ Hardy could get after him at the Rogers Centre. Kevin Gausman, a highly lauded prospect, makes his return from the DL for the Orioles as well and was shaky at best before missing time.
1) Miami at Cincinnati (9 Over/Under) – Tom Koehler vs. Anthony Desclafani is a ripe matchup for high scoring contests. I love the Cincy lefties here (Votto and Bruce specifically) but also like some of the stud RHBs on both sides (Stanton and Frazier).
2) San Diego at Arizona (8.5 Over/Under) – This game could have some fireworks. Given the right hand-heavy lineup for the Padres and the struggles of Robbie Ray vs. RHBs, I expect San Diego to score in bunches on Saturday. I love the likes of Upton, Kemp, Norris and Middlebrooks for an under the radar Saturday stack.
Best Left/Right Matchups
Easiest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
1) Trevor May vs. CHC – .346 wOBA vs. lefties over the past two years.
2) Chad Bettis vs. MIL – .345 wOBA vs. lefties over the past two years.
3) Mark Buehrle vs. BAL – .339 wOBA vs. lefties over the past two years.
4) Nick Martinez vs. CHW – .338 wOBA vs. lefties over the past two years.
1) Carlos Frias vs. SFG – .379 wOBA vs. lefties over the past two years.
2) Nathan Eovaldi vs. DET – .355 wOBA vs. lefties over the past two years.
3) Rick Porcello vs. KCR – .342 wOBA vs. lefties over the past two years.
Easiest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
1) Chad Bettis vs. MIL – .402 wOBA vs. righties over the past two years.
2) Trevor May vs. CHC – .365 wOBA vs. righties over the past two years.
3) Nick Martinez vs. CHW – .362 wOBA vs. righties over the past two years.
4) Carlos Rodon vs. TEX – .354 wOBA vs. righties over the past two years.
1) Erasmo Ramirez vs. CLE – .372 wOBA vs. righties over the past two years.
2) Robbie Ray vs. SDP – .361 wOBA vs. righties over the past two years.
3) Noah Syndergaard vs. NYM – .359 wOBA vs. righties over the past two years.
1) Miguel Cabrera ($5200 vs. Eovaldi) – .650 wOBA over the last 7 days and a great matchup with Nathan Eovaldi on Saturday.
2) Bryce Harper ($5400 vs. Liriano) – Given the lefty/lefty matchup and the hammy injury for Bryce, he seems worth avoiding despite the tear he’s been on.
3) Todd Frazier ($5500 vs. Koehler) – Frazier is blazing hot and as long as he’s at home in that hitter-friendly park, he’s in play. I’d prefer the matchup against a lefty but this is still a decent spot.
4) Giancarlo Stanton ($5600 vs. Desclafani) – He has a .573 wOBA over the last 7 days, but the matchup isn’t ideal. Desclafani struggles more with lefties than righties, but Giancarlo can go deep any given night.
5) Manny Machado ($5100 vs. Buehrle) – Averaging 14.9 FPPG over his last ten games and facing a below average pitcher in a hitter’s park? Yep, Machado is in play again on Saturday.
Best Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
1) Adam Jones vs. Mark Buehrle ($4700) – Jones is 16-39 with a 1.132 OPS lifetime against Buehrle including a pair of home runs.
2) Torii Hunter vs. Jon Lester ($3500) – He’s a discounted play on Saturday but in 28 ABs against Lester, Hunter has 14 hits for a .500 average and a 1.107 OPS.
3) Troy Tulowitzki vs. Kyle Lohse ($4700) – 10 hits in 26 at bats off Lohse for a 1.198 OPS is pretty good. But the Coors Factor is even better for Tulo.
1) Eric Hosmer vs. Rick Porcello ($4100) – This makes sense given Porcello’s struggles vs. LHBs, but Hosmer has a pair of HRs in 24 ABs vs. the Sox righty and a 1.074 OPS.
2) Yasiel Puig vs. Tim Hudson ($4700) – It’s a smaller sample but in 11 at bats Puig has 5 hits and 2 HRs off the aging right-hander.
3) Mark Teixeira vs. Alfredo Simon ($4700) – Tex is mashing this season and has owned Simon over his career. In 17 ABs he has 2 HRs and a 1.235 OPS against.
Chicago at Minnesota – About 30% chance of rain during the game and potential thunderstorms.
St Louis at Philadelphia – Some lingering thunderstorms in Philly, with 40%ish chances of rain.
Detroit at NY Yankees – Rain is expected late, so we could see some issues with the tail end of the game but it should be good to start.
As always, these are just early looks. Be sure to double check the weather before setting your lineups
One Pitcher To Build Lineups Around
Max Scherzer vs. PIT ($12600) – The guy is just an innings and strikeout machine. My concern, as noted above, is his recent workload but he is a lock to throw at least 100 pitches and he’s been on an incredible tear on the bump. Look for Scherzer to add to his recent dominance against a subpar Pirates lineup.
Corey Kluber vs. TBR ($10400) – Another most expensive pitcher isn’t the most contrarian play but Kluber has a great matchup against a below average Rays lineup. Kluber has a really impressive K-rate and his advanced metrics show his overall numbers should be slightly better than they actually are.
Superstar Worth Paying For…
Corey Dickerson vs. Lohse ($4700) – Lohse’s power numbers allowed to lefties are somehow worse than his wOBA metrics, giving Dickerson a terrific matchup to take advantage of on Saturday. This game has a huge O/U and I expect Dickerson to have his first big game since coming off the DL against the Brew Crew.
Justin Upton vs. Ray ($4800) – Ray has really struggled against right-handed bats in his time in the majors, with a .361 wOBA allowed over his career. Upton mashes left handed pitching and gets the added bonus of playing this game in the hitter friendly Chase Field. I love Upton’s upside, especially for tournaments, on Saturday.
Save Big Bucks By Drafting…
Ben Paulsen vs. Lohse ($3300) – It’s a rare discount for a Coors Field play, but Paulsen gets the nod. He’s been mashing, especially at home, and draws a tasty matchup against Lohse.
Other Options: Kyle Blanks vs. Rodon ($3800), Adam LaRoche vs. Martinez ($3500), Justin Smoak vs. Gausman ($2800)
Anthony Gose vs. Eovaldi ($3500) – I mentioned Eovaldi’s struggles earlier, and that all plays into Gose’s matchup, but I really like the upside of a guy leading off for one of the highest scoring teams of the night. He should get on base, steal bags and score a few runs tonight.
Other Options: Brock Holt vs. Volquez ($3500), Kolten Wong vs. Harang ($3900)