Thursday night brings us a short four-game slate. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins – Zack Greinke ($12,700) – The Diamondbacks are a heavy favorite tonight. Zack Greinke will take the mound against the Marlins in Miami. Greinke hasn’t nearly been as sharp on the road as he has been at home, averaging 16.1 FPPG with a .304 wOBA and a .404 SLG. The Marlins aren’t exactly striking fear in opposing pitchers with their home numbers, posting a .311 wOBA with a with a .318 OBP and a .405 SLG, but Greinke is awfully expensive tonight. In the end, Greinke should be able to handle this lineup in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, and he’ll likely be popular despite his high price tag.
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays – 9 projected runs – All of these game tonight are between 8.5-9 projected runs, so I wanted to showcase the Blue Jays with the highest projected run total of the night. At 4.9 runs, the Jays will face off against CC Sabathia. He’s been better on the road than at home, but he’ll matchup against a very right-handed heavy lineup. Sabathia has allowed all eight of his home runs to righties with a .323 wOBA allowed. At the Rogers Centre, the Blue Jays own a .427 SLG and a .324 wOBA, but I expect those numbers to climb now that they have their lineup back to full health. This could be a popular stack on the night, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they exceeded their projected run total.
No weather concerns!
Now that we’ve entered the month of June, I’ll be switching over to the 2017 Park Factor stats.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.
- Angel Stadium of Anaheim – Minnesota Twins vs. L.A. Angels – Angel Stadium is our number one ballpark for hitters tonight. Thus far in the 2017 season, all offensive categories except doubles and walks have been favored here.
- Marlins Park – Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins – Marlins Park is our number two ballpark tonight as the Marlins host the Diamondbacks. Triples and walks get the nod here in the early going.
- Camden Yards – Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox – Camden Yards is ranked as our worst ballpark on this slate. As we enter tonight, only walks have been favored for hitters this season.
- Rogers Centre – New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays – The Rogers Centre hasn’t been the home for good offense thus far in 2017. Only singles and doubles have favored hitters.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Alex Meyer||.877||.231||Wade Miley||.536||.161|
|Adalberto Mejia||.875||.375||Marco Estrada||.635||.205|
|Eduardo Rodriguez||.758||.289||Zack Greinke||.640||.227|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Adalberto Mejia||.902||.260||Eduardo Rodriguez||.626||.190|
|Wade Miley||.767||.262||Zack Greinke||.636||.210|
|CC Sabathia||.739||.251||Alex Meyer||.687||.239|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Didi Gregorius||Marco Estrada||24||2|
*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)
Pitcher to Build Around
Eduardo Rodriguez – BOS vs. BAL – $8,900 – I fully expect Greinke to be at least highly owned across the board, so I’m going with who I like for SP2. Rodriguez has been pitching very well this season, and tonight he faces off against his former team, the Baltimore Orioles. Rodriguez pitched against them in April at Camden Yards and posted 27.9 fantasy points, tossing six innings allowing no runs on one hit, with a 7:5 K: BB ratio. It is a bit worrisome that Rodriguez allows a ton of fly balls and in his last three games is averaging a batted ball distance of 235 ft. His strikeout upside is very high though, making this a boom-or-bust type play.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Mookie Betts – BOS vs. BAL – $5,300 – Betts is the second most expensive hitter on the night but someone I’m certainly paying up for. On the road, Betts is averaging 13 FPPG with eight of his nine home runs and nine doubles. Miley has been decent at home against righties, but I’ll chalk that one up to only pitching 19.2 innings in those matchups. Betts should be an excellent play against him tonight.
Save Big by Drafting…
Kevin Pillar – TOR vs. NYY – $3,500 – You may not realize it, but Pillar is having himself quite a season. He’s averaging nine FPPG at home with four of his seven home runs and 10 doubles. Pillar has been mashing left-handed pitching, so his matchup against Sabathia is a very positive one. Pillar is sporting a .559 wOBA at home against lefties with a .920 SLG and a .483 OBP. At $3,500, you have to consider him.
Stack Em Up
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles (Wade Miley) – Maybe I should call today’s article MLB Cheat Sheet: Red Sox Edition. After a very hot start to the season, Miley has come back down to earth, averaging eight fantasy points over his last four starts. The home run ball has been a problem lately as well, as Miley has allowed four over his last three starts. As a team, the Red Sox own a .343 wOBA against lefties with a .357 OBP and a .432 SLG. I can’t imagine this team not handling Miley.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.