Yesterday brought us quite the slate, with the Rockies putting up a football score. Let’s get into today and as always, you can find me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

WAS (-199) vs. PHI –Max Scherzer – Scherzer’s first start against the Phillies was fantastic. He pitched seven innings allowing one run on five hits alongside a 7:1 K:BB ratio. Things didn’t go as well in his second start, as he pitched seven innings allowing three runs on seven hits with a 7:4 K:BB ratio. So what can we expect tonight? The Phillies are one of the worst offensive teams against righties, owning a .285 wOBA against RHP with a .366 SLG and they strike out at a decent clip with a 21.5 K%. At $13,200, he’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate. I have no doubt that Scherzer could come away with a fantastic game here tonight, I just don’t know how ecstatic I am to pay up for it.

COL (-179) vs. CIN –Tyler Chatwood – After putting up 17 runs against the Reds last night, how could Vegas not love this spot for Colorado? If this game was away from Coors, I wouldn’t hate this spot for Chatwood by any means. But with it at Coors, I can’t say I’m big on taking a chance with him. Pitching at home this season, Chatwood owns a .400 wOBA against righties and a .327 wOBA against lefties. I have no doubt that the Rockies should be able to beat on John Lamb tonight with his 1.82 WHIP that jumps even higher to 2.87 on the road in two starts. The Rockies will be another big favorite tonight as we don’t have ANY weather concerns like last night, so have at it.

Biggest Over/Unders

CIN  vs COL – 11 runs- I just essentially gave a quick run down on this game tonight, but I think this is the perfect time to reiterate how important it is to monitor weather concerns, especially when it comes to Coors Field. About an hour before game time last night, weather reports were coming out that Coors was clearing up and they would be able to get the game in. By the time this game locked in, I believe the highest I saw a Rockies player owned in any particular event was 17%.

Last night, the Rockies ended up putting 17 runs on the board and that just goes to show how Coors Field can make or break your night. It’s a fickle beast to try and figure out how to handle Coors on a nightly basis but believe me, this is not a game you’ll want to fade with Lamb on the mound. Just be warned, EVERYBODY will be on this game tonight.

Weather Concerns

WAS vs PHI (Citizens Bank Park)- This game isn’t in any danger of being postponed, but it does have some rain lingering around first pitch. I wouldn’t worry too much and everyone in this game should be good to go.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. If an offensive category has a rating of 1.000 or higher, it favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 favors pitching.

  • Coors Field – CIN vs COL – We’ve switched over to the 2016 ratings for ball parks and guess which park is at number one?  No surprise that Coors Field remains the number one ballpark for hitters, owning a plus rating in every offensive category.
  • Rogers Centre – NYY vs TOR – In the early going of the 2016 season, Rogers Centre has quite a few favorable categories for hitters thus far. Just like Coors Field, Rogers has a favorable rating in every offensive category.
  • Wrigley Field – LAD vs CHC – This one took me be surprise, as Wrigley Field is currently ranked as an unfavorable park for hitters. So far this season, it only has favorable rating in triples and walks
  • Minute Maid Park – ARI  vs HOU – Minute Maid Park checks in as the second least favorable park for hitters on this slate. It currently only favors triples, and is ranked 27th overall.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Adam Conley.983.400Danny Duffy.399.185
Max Scherzer.975.291Tyler Chatwood.557.217
Mike Wright.968.354Mashiro Tanaka.566.213

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
John Lamb.985.338Max Scherzer.468.150
Joe Kelly.941.316Williams Perez.550.217
Mike Fiers.935.201Aaron Sanchez.581.225

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Kendrys MoralesChris Archer113.81
Giancarlo StantonJon Niese292.96
Edwin EncarnacionMashiro Tanaka162.37

  • I’m truly amazed at times seeing which hitters hit particular pitchers well. Morales is a great example against Chris Archer. Morales is 7-11 with three doubles, a home run and four RBIs.
  • If you’re looking to jump on this Stanton BvP, make sure he’s in the lineup tonight as he’s currently listed as DTD. If he’s in, Stanton faces Niese, against whom he’s gone 12-29 against with a double, four home runs and eight RBIs.
  • To wrap our BvP section up, we have Encarnacion against Tanaka. Edwin has gone 7-16 with two doubles, a home run and two RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Editor’s Note: Felix Hernandez has been scratched from his start tonight. James Paxton will start in his place.

Felix Hernandez – SEA vs. SDP – $11,000 – Taking Hernandez over Scherzer tonight will net you a $2,200 discount and what I think is a better matchup. The Padres are downright pathetic at this point and Hernandez is someone that should be able to continue that trend for them. Against right-handed pitchers, the Padres own the fourth highest K% in the league at 24.2% with a .272 wOBA and .352 SLG. Granted, Hernandez hasn’t had his strongest strikeout pitches this season, but he still owns a respectable 7.5 K/9 on the year and a very good chance to build on that here tonight. It isn’t at Safeco Field, but Petco Park is no Fenway either, so the extra cushion further has me on Hernandez in this spot. I believe he’s going to be very popular tonight, but this is the type of matchup I’d have a hard time getting away from. The discount off of Scherzer alone is worth it in my opinion.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Marcell Ozuna – MIA vs PIT (Jon Niese) – $5,100 – I swear I don’t have a man-crush on Ozuna. That only happens when he’s facing a left-handed pitcher. Oh, that’s tonight. Going up against Niese, Ozuna will bring his .580 wOBA with a .925 SLG and .475 ISO to the plate. Five of his 10 home runs have come against a left-handed pitcher and Niese has no problem with giving them up. With 12 home runs total allowed by Niese, 10 of those have come off the bat of a right-handed hitter. Until Ozuna cools off against lefties, he’s been an automatic in my lineup when this type of match up pops up.

Save Big by Drafting…

Ryan Raburn – COL vs CIN (John Lamb) – $3,600 – So here’s the irony of all of this- Raburn is actually hitting righties better than lefties. That’s completely backwards and not what the Rockies were looking for I’m sure. But I’m going to guess everything will balance out and Raburn will have better numbers against lefties by the time the season wraps up. So I’ll slot him in here as a cheap way to get some exposure to Coors. Raburn owns a career .358 wOBA against lefties along with a .490 SLG and .227 ISO. With Lamb fully expected to implode tonight, this is a good spot for Raburn. Normally this might not be as enticing because if Lamb is pulled early (good possibility) the Reds could throw a right-handed pitcher on the mound and Raburn would be pinch-hit for. However, with how well he’s hitting righties, that may not be the case which makes this pick even more valuable.

Stack Em Up

WAS vs. PHI (Adam Morgan) – We all know who people will be stacking tonight, so I like to take a bit of a different approach with a stack that could go overlooked. Tonight, I think that might be the Nationals. They face Adam Morgan tonight, who has been getting killed on the mound this season. The Nationals are one of the best hitting team against left-handed pitching this season, owning a team .350 wOBA with a .474 SLG and a .206 ISO.