We only have 7 games going tonight, so every pick is really going to matter in this slate. Let’s take a look at what tonight has to offer, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
LAD (-175) vs. MIL – Scott Kazmir – Kazmir has been one of my personal frustrations this season. Just when you think you can trust him, he snatches all hope away from you. The left-handed pitcher will be taking on the Brewers today at Dodgers Stadium, which is listed as the worst hitting ballpark this season. At home, Kazmir has compiled a 3.82 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP, averaging 18.2 FPPG in six starts. The Brewers continue to struggle against lefties this season, owning a .314 wOBA with a .388 SLG and 22.5 K%, which ranks 12th in the league. I do feel like this is a good spot for Kazmir, especially with it being played at home. His $8,500 price tag certainly won’t break the bank either, so he could be someone to certainly look at for tonight.
WAS (-158) vs. SDP – Tanner Roark – When I saw that Roark was the second highest priced pitcher for tonight, I’ll admit I gave a bewildered look to my computer screen. After it didn’t reciprocate one back, I took a look at what Roark has done this season and failed to realize how good of a season he’s putting together. Coming into tonight, Roark owns a 2.93 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP, averaging 17.7 FPPG. Both his home and road splits are good, as he isn’t really showing an advantage one spot or the other. Even with the Padres hitting better as of late, they still rank last in wOBA against righties this season at .278 with a .279 OBP and a .363 SLG. They continue to strike out a ton as well, owning a 24.2 K%, which ranks fourth in the league. Roark currently owns an overall K/9 of 8.1, but does dip down to 6.7 on the road. Overall, this is a great spot for Roark, and one that I’m sure will be popular across the board tonight.
BAL vs. BOS – 9.5 runs – – Yesterday I stated that I didn’t think this game would be as high of a run total as we initially thought. Just like yesterday, this game is tabbed as the highest run total of the night at 9.5. Well, they scored 10 runs, so I guess I messed that one up. Tonight it once again grabs the highest run total and this one I can get behind a bit more. Tyler Wilson takes the mound for the Orioles as he opposes Eduardo Rodriguez. Both of these pitchers have been struggling so far this season and both of these pitchers are facing the opposing team for the second time. The Orioles are struggling against lefties this season, owning a .301 wOBA with a .291 OBP, but did manage two runs on six hits off Rodriguez just a couple of weeks ago in his return to the majors. I think it will certainly be worth grabbing some exposure to this one tonight.
Even on a seven game slate, we don’t have any weather or wind issues.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.
- Fenway Park – BAL vs BOS – Fenway Park checks in as our most favorable park for tonight. So far this season, it has a favorable rating in runs, singles, doubles and walks.
- Kauffman Stadium – DET vs KCR – We had to go way down the list for tonight to grab our second most favorable ballpark for tonight. Kauffman Stadium gets the nod with favorable rating in runs, singles, doubles and triples.
- Dodger Stadium – MIL vs LAD – Dodger Stadium and Tropicana Field keep switching places as the overall worst park for hitters this season, with Dodger Stadium currently holding the lead. It currently does not favor hitters in any category.
- Citizens Bank Park – TOR vs PHI – Citizens Bank Park remains one of the worst for hitters this season, only carrying a favorable rating in triples and walks.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Kyle Gibson||1.056||.366||Danny Duffy||.466||.189|
|Juan Nicasio||.961||.313||Eduardo Rodriguez||.473||.200|
|CC Sabathia||.709||.192||Tanner Roark||.555||.187|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Eduardo Rodriguez||.954||.269||Aaron Nola||.582||.234|
|Tyler Wilson||.769||.264||CC Sabathia||.588||.225|
|J.A. Happ||.743||.246||Juan Nicasio||.651||.216|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Salavdor Perez||Justin Verlander||44||2.65|
|Kendrys Morales||Justin Verlander||34||2.29|
- BvP is not looking so hot tonight, as we only have two guys worth profiling. Coincidently, they both are facing Justin Verlander tonight. We start off with Perez who has gone 21-44 against Verlander with seven doubles, two home runs and 13 RBIs.
- Next up is Morales against Verlander. Morales has gone 12-34 with four doubles, two home runs and 10 RBIs.
Pitcher to Build Around
Scott Kazmir – MIL vs LAD – $8,500 Ok Kazmir, this is your time to shine here, you can’t let me down again. As I stated earlier, I think this is a really good spot for Kazmir being at Dodger Stadium and all. With the Brewers not really doing much against lefties and the potential for a good amount of strikeouts, Kazmir at $8,500 feels like quite the play here. Even with a poor outing against the Padres earlier this season, where Kazmir went 5.2 innings, allowing five runs on three hits, Kazmir walked a TON of guys in this with with seven. This start could have looked A LOT different if he had more command, as he still struck out five during that outing. Kazmir certainly has the ability to lose control of the ball and that can be his downfall, but when he’s on, he can have a hell of a game. I’m hoping for some of that tonight.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Bryce Harper – WAS vs. SDP (Erik Johnson) – $5,100 – I know Harper hasn’t been doing much at the plate lately, his overall numbers will certainly show that, but damn, I can’t help but love this matchup tonight. If you haven’t heard about Erik Johnson, let me clue you in on what this guy has been doing. In three starts this season, Johnson has allowed SEVEN home runs. Seven! Three to right-handed batters and four to left-handed batters. Johnson currently owns a .523 wOBA against lefties this season with a .818 SLG. We all know what Harper is capable of, so I can’t help but think he can’t take advantage of this extremely good matchup for himself.
Save Big by Drafting…
Andrew McCutchen – PIT vs. NYM (Bartolo Colon) – $3,300 – Yup, you’re reading this right, Andrew McCutchen is currently $3,300 on DraftKings right now. You may ask yourself, “Steve, what has caused this incredible price drop?” Well, a 0-17 skid will certainly help that cause. McCutchen is currently in a horrific slump that has destroyed his lackluster seasons numbers to begin with. McCutchen currently is hitting .234 with nine home runs, 25 RBIs and averaging only 7.4 FPPG. However, they’re moving McCutchen back to his normal 3rd spot in the lineup and he doesn’t have the toughest matchup on tap against Bartolo Colon. I can’t promise anything fantastic will happen here, but I’d be more than willing to take a shot on McCutchen at such a low price. He won’t be slumping forever, so if you’re on board when he comes out of it, you’ll benefit immensely.
Stack Em Up
WAS vs. SDP (Erik Johnson) – I mean, what more can I say other than how horrible Johnson has looked in his three starts this season. Aside from the seven home runs he’s allowed, his command has been a bit shaky, owning a 14:8 K:BB ratio. Against right-handed pitching this season, the Nationals own a .314 wOBA with a .411 SLG with 68 home runs, which ranks 4th in the league. I’m having a hard time seeing Johnson coming out and smoking this Nationals lineup, so I’m going to do the next sensible thing and stack these hitters.