WATCH: MLB IN 90 SECONDS SALVADOR PEREZ


Thursday night brings us a seven-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Chris Sale ($14,100) – As you’d expect, Sale is the favorite on the slate tonight. He’ll take on the Phillies in Philadelphia, where they own a .325 wOBA with a .323 OBP and a  K% of 20.3. The concern I have here is the salary that Sale will command tonight at $14,100. He’s by far the most expensive pitcher, as he’ll run you for $5,100 more than Gio Gonzalez. Sale carries tremendous upside and his strikeout capabilities are almost unmatched but is he worth such a high salary? Over his last five starts, Sale is averaging 22.7 FPPG and a 7.8 K/9. While those aren’t bad numbers by any means, they aren’t exactly numbers I’m looking for when rostering someone as expensive as he is. He’ll likely be super popular, and if you’re taking him, I can’t blame you, but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t end up reaching his value.

Highest Totals

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies – 11 projected runs – As if Sale at a high salary tonight didn’t make it hard enough, we have a game at Coors Field to deal with as well. As always, this game carries the highest projected run total at 11, with the Rockies projected at 6.1 runs. Matt Moore has been downright awful on the road this season, averaging just 3.8 fantasy points in seven road starts with a .433 wOBA and a .655 SLG. He’s pitched at Coors once already this season, and naturally, that went horribly. Moore lasted just four innings allowing six runs on nine hits with a 4:3 K:BB ratio. The Rockies should be able to handle him no problem, as Moore will be facing them for the third time overall, posting a whopping three fantasy points in those starts.

Weather Concerns

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers (Comerica Park) – This game could end up in a delay at some point, but it shouldn’t be enough to PPD. Keep an eye out closer to first pitch.

Park Factors

Now that we’ve entered the month of June, I’ll be switching over to the 2017 Park Factor stats.

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies – As always, Coors tops our most favorable place for hitters. All offensive categories get the nod here.
  • Citizens Bank Park – Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Citizens Bank Park is our second most favorable ballpark tonight for offensive production. So far this season, doubles and triples have been the only categories that aren’t favored here
  • Citi Field – Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets – Citi Field checks in as our least favorable ballpark for hitters on the night. So far in 2017, walks are the only offensive category favored here.
  • Busch Stadium – Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Busch Stadium is our second least favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. Busch Stadium has only favored triples in 2017.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Matt Moore1.177.366Jeff Hoffman.421.163
Nick Pivetta.858.298Gio Gonzalez.518.200
Zach Davies.846.262Robert Gsellman.582.204

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Nick Pivetta1.027.319Chris Sale.562.210
Robert Gsellman.918.333Jeff Hoffman.637.188
Ricky Nolasco.909.290Michael Wacha.713.274

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Jedd GyorkoZach Davies133.53
Matt CarpenterZach Davies153.46
Nolan ArenadoMatt Moore143.21

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Michael Wacha – STL vs. MIL – $6,300 – Tonight is a real boom-or-bust type night for pitchers, so I’m rolling with Wacha on this slate. You can read my blurb on Chris Sale at the beginning of this article, and Justin Verlander I can’t trust at this point. Wacha is dirt cheap at $6,300 tonight and has had tremendous success at Busch Stadium this season. In seven home starts, he’s averaging 15.6 FPPG with a .289 wOBA and a .380 SLG. He’ll take on a strikeout prone Brewers team, who’s posting a 24.4 K% against righties, which would rank as the fourth-highest on the slate. At his price point, he’s easily affordable and could help you squeeze in some Coors Field bats.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

J.D. Martinez – DET vs. TB – $4,400 – Martinez will take on Alex Cobb tonight, as Martinez continues to crush it at Comerica Park. Cobb has been struggling on the road, owning a .357 wOBA with a .463 SLG with five of his 10 home runs allowed. As for Martinez, he’s posting a cool .509 wOBA at home with a .860 SLG with seven of his 11 home runs.

Save Big by Drafting…

Wilmer Flores – NYM vs. WAS – $2,900 – Such a small price to pay for someone who owns left-handed pitching. On a night that includes Chris Sale and Coors Field, Flores at $2,900 is a beautiful sight to see. If you aren’t up to speed, Flores is posting a .379 wOBA against lefties with a .550 SLG and a .357 OBP. Gio Gonzalez has struggled on the road against righties, allowing six of his 10 home runs with a .365 wOBA.

Stack Em Up

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Zach Davies) – The Rockies are my top stack of the night, but I’m fairly sure you knew that already. The other stack I like a lot is the Cardinals against Zach Davies. If you’re a BvP guy, you’ll love the Cardinals’ numbers against him in the past. Matt Carpenter and Jedd Gyorko have gone a combined 15-28 against Davies with three home runs. Besides that, Davies owns a .349 wOBA on the road with six of his 11 home runs allowed.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.