WATCH: MLB TODAY MINNESOTA TWINS


Wednesday night brings us an 11-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

Cleveland Indians vs. L.A. Dodgers – Corey Kluber ($12,500) – The Indians and Kluber are big favorites tonight taking on the Dodgers at Progressive Field. The Dodgers are projected for 3.7 runs, which is the lowest on this slate. In his two starts since returning from the disabled list, Kluber has pitched 12 innings allowing three runs on nine hits with an 18:3 K:BB ratio. Granted, those two starts were against the White Sox and Oakland A’s, but Kluber has been inducing plenty of ground balls, and his hard hit rate is sitting at 16% in that span. When we bundle all this together with the fact that the Dodgers are currently seventh in the league in K% against righties at 23.3%, it’s hard not to love this matchup for the Indians’ ace.

Highest Total

Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins – 10.5 projected runs – After going off for 20 runs last night, the Twins are tabbed for another big night. With a 5.8 run projection, the Twins will face Sam Gaviglio at Target Field tonight. Gaviglio hasn’t been all that bad in his five starts, but home runs have been a big problem for him. In 29 innings of work, he’s allowed six home runs with four of those coming on the road. His 48% hard over his last three starts is a reason for concern, especially with how well the Twins are hitting. I fully expect more eyes than usual on this Twins stack, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they end up being the highest owned on the night.

Weather Concerns

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Busch Stadium) – Keep an eye on this one as this game has a chance of some pop-up storms. We won’t fully grasp the severity of these storms until closer to game time.
h3. Park Factors

Now that we’ve entered the month of June, I’ll be switching over to the 2017 Park Factor stats.

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Target Field – Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins – Target Field is our number one ballpark for hitters. So far this season, every offensive category has been favored here.
  • Angel Stadium of Anaheim – New York Yankees vs. L.A. Angels – Angel Stadium has been home to some serious offensive numbers so far in 2017. Thus far, every offensive category except doubles and walks are favored here.
  • Minute Maid Park – Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros – As always, Houston is home to one of the worst ballparks for hitters. No offensive categories get the nod here in 2017.
  • Citi Field – Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets – Citi Field checks in as our second least favorable ballpark for hitters on the night. So far in 2017, walks are the only offensive category favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Chad Kuhl1.066.340Ervin Santana.466.142
Jordan Zimmermann.966.339Francisco Liriano.534.207
Miguel Gonzalez.869.293Brandon McCarthy.592.237

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Francisco Liriano.911.285Ervin Santana.587.167
Jordan Zimmermann.862.277Mike Leake.619.217
Jeremy Hellickson.832.273Brandon McCarthy.626.229

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Josh DonaldsonJake Odorizzi203.05
Robinson CanoErvin Santana422.88
Evan LongoriaFrancisco Liriano252.44

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Corey Kluber – CLE vs. LAD – $12,500 – I don’t see any reason to be off of Kluber tonight as he takes on the Dodgers. With Kluber looking like his old self and the strikeout potential the Dodgers bring to this matchup, I’m more than willing to roll with him here tonight. The Dodgers have been average at best on the road this season, posting a .310 wOBA with a .326 OBP and a .386 SLG, which ranks as one of the lowest in the league. With pitching fairly weak tonight, I expect Kluber to be quite popular.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Anthony Rizzo – CHC vs. NYM – $4,600 – I don’t think we talk enough about the Cubs taking on Matt Harvey tonight. The Dark Knight is pitching like he still has a broken back from Bane, posting a .337 wOBA on the season with 13 home runs allowed. His numbers have been better lately, but his last four games have seen him face the Braves, Pirates twice and Padres. Rizzo is mashing the ball as of late, averaging 12.2 fantasy points over his last 10 games.

Save Big by Drafting…

Miguel Cabrera – DET vs. ARI – $3,400 – When was the last time you saw Miguel Cabrera at $3,400 on DraftKings? He takes on Taijuan Walker, who is fresh off the disabled list and will be making his first start since May 19th. Walker was no stranger to giving up home runs, as he allowed 27 last season with 12 of them on the road while with the Mariners. Cabrera certainly isn’t having the kind of season we are used to seeing, but it’s hard to keep him on the board at such a low salary and a good matchup to boot.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.