Last night left a lot to be desired on the pitching end. Tonight brings us a good overall mix of solid pitching and some great hitting match ups. Let’s just into all the information for tonight, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
SFG (-245) vs. MIL – Madison Bumgarner – Bumgarner and the Giants get the nod as the heavy favorites for tonight as they take on the Brewers and the returning Matt Garza. Bumgarner checks in as the most expensive pitcher on the slate, costing you $2,500 more than John Lackey. Bumgarner has been worth almost every penny this season, especially when pitching at home. In seven starts, he owns a 1.71 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP and averaging 24.7 FPPG. Facing the Brewers tonight, who own a .317 wOBA against lefties with a 22.2 K%, Bumgarner should once again be a popular choice. In his one start against the Brewers this season, Bumgarner lasted only five innings allowing three runs on five hits with a 6:5 K:BB ratio. I would chalk that game up as an uncharacteristic one for Bumgarner, as he hasn’t walked five in a start since then.
NYM (-173) vs. PIT – Jacob deGrom – deGrom feels a bit cheap tonight, even in a tough matchup against the Pirates. This will be the second time deGrom will be taking on the Pirates, as he just faced them a week ago today at PNC Park. In that start, deGrom went six innings, allowing three runs on six hits but did have a 9:0 K:BB ratio. The Pirates are still hitting right-handed pitching well this season, owning a .330 wOBA with a .412 SLG. However, we can’t fail to mention how well deGrom has looked at Citi Field either. In five starts, deGrom owns a 2.03 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP with a K/9 of 10.6. Even though the Pirates are hitting well, I’d be comfortable taking deGrom in this spot. He’s been pitching well enough to trust again and his strikeouts are certainly back in his arsenal. At $10,100, I don’t think this is a bad spot to grab deGrom here.
NYY vs. COL – 11.5 runs – Ah yes, here we are again with some Coors Field action. The Yankees visit the Rockies at Coors Field in what should be another high scoring affair tonight. Nathan Eovaldi and Jorge De La Rosa take the mound in this one. The appeal here off the bat is the Yankees bats taking on De La Rosa, who is having a REAL rough go of it this season. In six home starts, De La Rosa owns a 6.23 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and seven of his eight home runs allowed. Even with the Yankees not hitting lefties well this season, you have to think they can make something happen here against De La Rosa. As always, you should be looking to grab some exposure to this one, as the ball should be flying out of the park.
1) CIN vs. ATL (Turner Field) – We have a chance of thunderstorms all throughout the night at this one, but it will be all about if these storms make it over the stadium or not.
2) DET vs CHW (U.S. Cellular Field)– This game features a chance of thunderstorms that gets worse as the night progresses. This one feels like the most likely to see it getting PPD, so make sure to watch this one closely.
3) CLE vs KCR (Kauffman Stadium)– Finally, this will feature only a small chance of storms throughout the night, but of course, this can change dramatically one way or another.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.
- Coors Field – NYY vs COL – We have some Coors Field action back in our lives, so be prepared to have this occupy the top of the list for the near future. Every offensive category is favored here so as always, have at it.
- Chase Field – LAD vs ARI – Chase Field is ranked 5th overall in all of baseball right now and number two on our list for today. Coming into this game, Chase Field currently favors hitters in every offensive category except doubles
- Tropicana Field – SEA vs TBR – As of today, Tropicana Field is the worst ranked ballpark for hitters this season. All offensive categories get the thumbs down here in 2016.
- Oakland Coliseum – TEX vs OAK – The Oakland Coliseum is currently ranked the third worst ballpark in all of baseball just behind Dodger Stadium and Tropicana Field. Triples are the only category favored for hitters here.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Chris Young||1.264||.338||Madison Bumgarner||.440||.152|
|Jorge De La Rosa||1.039||.333||Martin Perez||.470||.164|
|Eric Surkamp||.948||.323||Jake Odorizzi||.490||.173|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Eric Surkamp||.957||.321||Drew Pomeranz||.553||.182|
|Jorge De la Rosa||.921||.303||Julio Teheran||.538||.194|
|Ervin Santana||.884||.318||Kenta Maeda||.561||.223|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Salvador Perez||Josh Tomlin||20||3.50|
|Dexter Fowler||Gio Gonzalez||17||2.88|
|Mark Trumbo||David Price||22||2.54|
- We have some good BvP to feature in this slate tonight and we start off with Perez taking on Tomlin. Perez has gone 13-20 with six doubles, a home run and six RBIs in their 20 match ups.
- Next we have Dexter Fowler taking on Gio Gonzalez. The switch-hitting lead off man is 8-17 against Gonzalez with a double, triple, home run and three RBIs.
- Finally we go to the red hot Mark Trumbo taking on David Price. In his career, Trumbo is 8-22 against Price with two doubles, two home runs and 7 RBIs.
Pitcher to Build Around
Drew Pomeranz – SDP vs MIA – $10,400 We all know that everyone like Bumgarner tonight, so what good is it if I just reiterate that fact? I like deGrom and Pomeranz tonight, so I thought I’d talk about my man, Drew. Pomeranz has been quietly putting together a solid season, posting a 2.44 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and a 10.6 K/9. Even better, is how well he is pitching at home at Petco Park. In that span, Pomeranz has started five games owning a 1.52 ERA with a 11.05 WHIP with a 10.3 K/9. The Marlins are hitting decent against lefties, owning a .319 wOBA with a .413 SLG, but they are also striking out a good chunk with a 22.7 K%. I think Pomeranz is another fantastic option tonight and one that I think won’t be as popular as you may be lead to believe.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Carlos Gonzalez – COL vs. NYY (Nathan Eovaldi) – $5,500 – When you think of what Nathan Eovaldi doesn’t do well, the first thing that comes to my mind is pitch to left-handed batters. I mean, take a look at the numbers. This season against lefties, Eovaldi owns a .384 wOBA with a .543 SLG. Eovaldi has also split the home runs down the middle with the batters he’s faced, as five of his 10 have gone against lefties. Now, with Gonazlez, he’s been feasting on right-handed pitching, especially at Coors Field. At home this season against righties, Gonzalez owns a .476 wOBA with a .740 SLG with six of his 14 home runs. He’s very expensive tonight, but this is a matchup I want a piece of for sure.
Save Big by Drafting…
Salvador Perez – KCR vs. CLE (Josh Tomlin) – $3,400 – This has nothing to do with the BvP against Tomlin that I showcased earlier. Ok, actually, maybe it does, but Perez has been hitting righties well now and Tomlin has his issues against them. Aside from those BvP stats (good ones at that) Perez owns a .364 wOBA against righties this season with a .529 SLG. Tomin has also had his struggles with righties, owning a .320 wOBA with six of his 12 home runs allowed. Perez has really raised his average up quickly over these past few weeks, so grabbing him at just $3,400 tonight feels like a no brainer.
Stack Em Up
NYY vs. COL (Jorge De La Rosa) – I know that it doesn’t feel like this is rocket science, but looking at the prices for the Yankees at Coors Field makes this a doable stack. Usually, a stack at Coors Field isn’t the easiest to make and fill out the rest of your roster. With the exception of outfielders, the majority of these players are priced under $4,200, which is a rarity indeed. Add that in the mix with how poorly De La Rosa is pitching, especially at home, and we suddenly have a viable Coors Field stack. If you’re not a fan, Cleveland is my second option.