WATCH: PITCHER TO CONSIDER – CC SABATHIA


Tuesday night brings us a 14-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies – David Price ($10,100) – The Red Sox are a favorite tonight as they take on the Phillies with David Price on the mound. With a team run total of 3.7, the Phillies will face David Price in his first home start of the season. Since his return, Price has been shaky on the mound, averaging only 13 fantasy points per game, allowing 10 runs on 13 hits in 17 innings with a 15:7 K:BB ratio. While the matchup is certainly a favorable one, it’s hard to fully trust Price at this point, especially with a $10,100 salary. Last season, Price allowed a .317 wOBA at home with a .445 SLG and 17 of his 30 home runs. His strikeout potential always puts him in consideration, but until he becomes more consistent, I’m leaving Price on the board.

Highest Total

Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox – 10.5 runs – Fresh off their 17 run game last night, the Orioles and White Sox are expected to score the most runs again tonight with a 10.5 run projection. The Orioles are slight favorites in this one with a 5.4 projected run total taking on Derek Holland. Holland is coming off back-to-back horrific starts, posting negative scores against the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays. In those games, Holland has lasted seven innings, allowing 15 runs on 17 hits with six home runs and a 4:5 K:BB ratio. Granted, those games came on the road, but it still doesn’t exactly bode well for tonight’s start. The Orioles come into this game with a .317 wOBA against lefties with a .425 SLG and a .312 OBP.

Weather Concerns

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox (Fenway Park) – Boston will feature some thunderstorms all throughout the day that could sneak into game time. However, it looks as if they’ll have plenty of clearing, so a delay looks the worst possible outcome here. Make sure you check the forecast before game time.

Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets (Citi Field) – This game should have no problem starting but New York has a chance at some thunderstorms late tonight, so depending on how this game goes, it could end up being an issue.

Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins (Target Field) – If any game has the highest chance of seeing a thunderstorm today, it’ll be at Target Field. As of this morning, they had the highest chance of a storm rolling through near the middle of the game with the threat lingering all throughout the night.

Park Factors

Now that we’ve entered the month of June, I have switched over to the 2017 Park Factor stats.

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Target Field – Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins – Target Field is our number one ballpark for hitters. So far this season, every offensive category has been favored here.
  • Angel Stadium of Anaheim – New York Yankees vs. L.A. Angels – Angel Stadium has been home to some serious offensive numbers so far in 2017. Every offensive category except doubles and walks are favored here.
  • Minute Maid Park – Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros – As always, Houston is home to one of the worst ballparks for hitters. No offensive categories get the nod here in 2017.
  • Citi Field – Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets – Citi Field checks in as our second least favorable ballpark for hitters on the night. So far in 2017, walks are the only offensive category favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Jason Vargas.987.383Ty Blach.482.175
Joe Ross.975.324Derek Holland.510.200
Kyle Gibson.921.317CC Sabathia.609.250

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Christian Bergman.956.321Clayton Kershaw.534.189
Jose Urena.939.291Jason Vargas.540.199
Derek Holland.903.274Zack Greinke.617.209

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Mark TrumboDerek Holland472.51
Justin UptonZack Greinke272.44
Yunel EscobarCC Sabathia412.31

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jason Vargas – KC vs. SFG – $8,300 – I’m going bold here today, and I’m ignoring Kershaw, Greinke and Price tonight. Vargas is in a fantastic spot against a weak offense against lefties in the San Francisco Giants. Against lefties this season the Giants own one of the lowest wOBAs in the league at .284 to go with a .301 OBP and a .351 SLG. Admittedly, Vargas doesn’t possess a ton of strikeout potential, so averaging 19.6 FPPG is quite impressive since his K/9 sits at 7.1 on the year. At $8,300, Vargas brings you a cheap option at pitcher with enough potential to make it worth your while.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Bryce Harper – WAS vs. ATL – $5,300R.A. Dickey pitched a very impressive game his last time out against the Phillies, scoring 32 fantasy points in seven innings of work. Impressive, right? Well before that, Dickey averaged 3.2 fantasy points in his previous five starts. Not so impressive, right? Dickey is allowing a .346 wOBA to lefties this season with a .466 SLG with five of his 12 home runs allowed, which makes for an appetizing matchup for Bryce Harper. With three pitchers with a salary of at least $10K tonight, we could see lower than usual ownership on Harper.

Save Big by Drafting…

Trey Mancini – BAL vs. CWS – $3,300 – If Derek Holland is going to struggle like I think he will, Mancini at $3,300 could be a steal. Hitting his 10th home run of the season last night, Mancini will matchup against Holland with a .334 wOBA against lefties and a .480 SLG with four of his 10 home runs. It will be interesting to see where he lands in the lineup tonight as Chris Davis could be out with an oblique strain. Nonetheless, in the highest projected run total of the night, Mancini will provide nice salary savings.

Stack Em Up

Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins (Kyle Gibson) – Kyle Gibson has been downright brutal at home this season, so a matchup against the Mariners could continue to spell trouble. In 22.1 innings at Target Field this season, Gibson is allowing a .433 wOBA with a .577 SLG and a .441 OBP. Amazingly, Gibson has done a decent job at keeping the ball in the park despite all this offense, allowing just four of his seven home runs to leave the park at home. Nonetheless, this Mariners’ offense posted 14 runs last night and are in a great spot to put up some crooked numbers again tonight.

Also, between you and I, I think a Mets stack against Jon Lester could be a sneaky one tonight.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.