Tonight brings us a full 15 game slate to kick off our weekend. With a game at Coors Field and a TON of solid pitchers going tonight, this is going to be quite the night of baseball. Let’s get you set for tonight, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

CHW (-290) vs. ATL – Chris Sale – Sale and the White Sox check in as the heavy favorites in this game against the Braves. Sale is barely the most expensive pitcher on this slate tonight, as he’s $100 more than Jose Fernandez at $13,500. Sale has been fantastic over his last four starts, averaging 27.1 FPPG while facing four legitimate teams. During that span, Sale faced the Tigers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Astros. While Sale may be pitching more to contact rather than grabbing strikeouts, it’s been working wonders for him. Sale owns an 8.8 K/9 on the season, which on a normal basis would be fine, but this is down from his career 10.1 that he normally owns. With the Braves being one of the worst offenses in the league against lefties, Sale has to be one of the top options for tonight. Coming into this game, the Braves owns a .273 wOBA against lefties with a .293 OBP and a .325 SLG. Their K% has been going up against lefties as well with a 21.1 K%, making this start for Sale about as enticing as it gets.

MIA (-263) vs. CIN – Jose Fernandez – As I mentioned, Fernandez will be the second highest priced pitcher of the night at $13,400. Going against a Reds team that owns a 22.3 K% against righties plays right into the wheelhouse of Fernandez tonight. If you haven’t heard, I’ll clue you in on a little secret; Fernandez strikes guys out, and he does it A LOT. Coming into this start, Fernandez owns a 13.1 K/9 on the season, which is two strikeouts higher than his career average. Fernandez is coming off the worst start of the season, against the Braves of all teams. In that start, he went five innings, allowing nine runs (six earned) on eight hits with a 8:1 K:BB ratio. While I can’t give a good reason for that poor start, Fernandez has been fantastic the majority of the season, averaging 25.5 FPPG. With the strikeout potential he possesses in this game, I would be hard pressed to fade him tonight.

Highest Totals

PHI vs COL – 11.5 runs – This game is going to be very interesting game DFS wise, as it will be tough getting exposure to Coors with the plethora of top pitching options available for tonight. Six pitchers tonight are at least $10,000, which will make fading them all quite difficult. For what it’s worth though, both of these teams will be trotting their stronger options to the mound tonight with Vince Velasquez for the Phillies and Jon Gray for the Rockies. Am I saying this is going to be a 1-0 game tonight? Absolutely not. But I think a case can be made that this game does have a bit of fade potential. It’s not like last night’s gas can where Adam Morgan was taking the mound and his numbers against righties were atrocious, making the bottom half of the Rockies lineup a fine play. On a night like tonight though, you’re going to have to make a decision, are you going with the big time pitchers or a potentially low owned Coors Field game?

Weather Concerns

CHC vs. PIT (PNC Park) – A fairly small chance of thunderstorms will threaten this game later in the night. It doesn’t look to be a major concern, but it’s certainly worth monitoring if you’re taking any pitchers from this one.

NYY vs. CLE (Progressive Field) – Same situation as at PNC Park, thunderstorms will potentially roll in later on in the game. Percentage wise, this has the better chance of actually getting these storms, so be aware, as we get closer to first pitch.

WAS vs. NYM (Citi Field) – Once again, rain can roll into this game as they play later into the night. This is clearly one to watch as the pitchers going in this one will be vastly popular.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – PHI vs COL – I don’t think I really need to explain why Coors checks in as the best hitting ballpark for hitters so far this season, but in case you were wondering, it still has a favorable rating in every offensive category.
  • Kauffman Stadium – SEA vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium currently ranks number two overall for hitters this season. Coming into this game, it has a favorable rating for all offensive categories except home runs.
  • Dodger Stadium – SD vs LAD – Dodger Stadium ranks last in all of baseball as the Padres visit the Dodgers for this series. Coming into tonight, it does not have a favorable rating in any offensive category.
  • Minute Maid Park – OAK vs HOU – From one unfavorable park to another, the A’s visit the Astros tonight. Minute Maid Park currently favors only triples this season.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Ubaldo Jimenez.997.342Stephen Strasburg.557.185
Mike Pelfrey.906.347Chris Sale.591.207
Hisashi Iwakuma.876.325Cole Hamels.610.209

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Andrew Cashner.903.302Jose Fernandez.458.166
Jon Gray.878.283Jake Arrieta.463.169
Francisco Liriano.852.286Daniel Mengden.503.197

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
David OrtizChris Archer313.09
Adrian GonzalezAndrew Cashner322.65
Danny ValenciaCollin McHugh142.42

  • It feels as if everyone is hitting Chris Archer well this season, but at least David Ortiz can back it up with some numbers. Ortiz is 12-31 lifetime against Archer with four doubles, two home runs, 15 RBIs and four walks.
  • I almost feel inclined to remove all mentions of Adrian Gonzalez in BvP conversations simply because he’s not the same hitter he once was. Nonetheless, he’s had good numbers against Andrew Cashner in the past. Gonzalez is 11-32 with a double, four home runs, six RBIs and five walks.
  • Our last BvP showcase for tonight features Valencia against McHugh. Valencia is 5-14 against McHugh with two doubles, a home run and three RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jose Fernandez – MIA vs CIN – $13,400 The sky is the limit when it comes to the upside for Fernandez. With the amount of strikeouts he’s racking up this season going against a Reds team that certainly has their fair share of them, I love Fernandez in this spot. This season, he’s faced five teams that are currently in the Top 10 in K% against righties. Those teams are the Brewers, Rays, Diamondbacks, Tigers and Mets, who he’s faced twice. In those six games, Fernandez owns a 19.1 K/9. Nope, that wasn’t a typo, a 19.1 K/9. The Red currently rank 11th in K% this season against righties, so I think it’s fairly easy to figure out where this start could go.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Wil Myers – SDP vs. LAD (Scott Kazmir) – $5,500 – It will most likely be a stretch to fit Myers into your lineups for tonight, but if you can make it happen, make it happen. He faces off against Scott Kazmir tonight, who owns a .327 wOBA against righties with a .433 SLG and 10 of his 14 home runs allowed. Aside from the ridiculous tear that Myers has been on, his strong point has been lefties this season. Myers owns a .382 wOBA with a .533 SLG against them this season with six of his 19 home runs. Getting him could come with low ownership because of his price, making him all the more valuable.

Save Big by Drafting…

Grant Green – SFG vs. ARZ (Patrick Corbin) – $2,500 You’ll most certainly need to be saving some money tonight, so what a more perfect way to do so than filling the second base position with a starter at just $2,500 with a good matchup to boot? Green joined the Giants recently to fill the void of Joe Panik on the disabled list. Green has seen himself near the top of the Giants lineup and takes on Patrick Corbin tonight. Corbin continues to have his struggles against righties, owning a .346 wOBA with a .464 SLG and 13 of his 17 home runs allowed. On a night like tonight, Green is a welcome addition to your lineup.

Stack Em Up

TBR vs. BOS (Sean O’Sullivan) – I have a couple of stacks that I like for tonight, but with the amount of salary that’s going to be thrown at the pitchers and potentially Coors Field tonight, I figured I’d showcase a stack that could very well be overlooked tonight. The Rays will take on Sean O’Sullivan at Fenway Park tonight, making it extremely easy to save some salary with an upside stack. Even though the Rays aren’t exactly crushing the ball at this point, O’Sullivan hasn’t been helping his cause on the mound this season. In four starts, O’Sullivan owns a 6.61 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP in games against the Yankees, A’s, Astros and Angels.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.