WATCH: PITCHER TO CONSIDER ZACK GREINKE


Friday night brings us a huge 13-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

Max Scherzer vs. Atlanta Braves – Washington Nationals ($13,200) – Scherzer and the Nationals are favored tonight as they take on R.A. Dickey and the Braves. Scherzer has been on fire lately, averaging 33.5 fantasy points in his last 10 starts and posting a.176 wOBA with a .195 SLG and a .187 OBP in June. His salary will make it difficult to fill out the rest of your roster, but truly, no one has been as good as Scherzer these past two months.

Highest Total

Chicago White Sox vs. Colorado Rockies – 12.5 projected runs – Coors Field is the home of the highest projected run total tonight, with the Rockies opening at a massive seven-run projection. Derek Holland will be taking the hill for the White Sox, and he will likely be heavily targeted against. Holland has allowed a 40% hard hit contact over his last three starts en route to allowing 13 runs in 14 innings with three home runs. The Rockies total has dropped half a run since this morning, but they still own a 6.5 projection in this game. As expected, the Rockies are one of the best hitting clubs at home, sporting a .347 wOBA with a .480 SLG and a .340 OBP.

Weather Concerns

Overall, weather shouldn’t pose much of an issue tonight. As always though, make sure to check before first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – Chicago White Sox vs. Colorado Rockies – As always, Coors Field is home to the top offensive ballpark for hitters tonight. As you’d expect, every offensive category is favored here.
  • Chase Field – Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Chase Field has also been one of the best offensive parks for hitters this season. Just like Coors, all offensive categories have been favored here as well.
  • AT&T Park – Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants – The Marlins play in one of the worst offensive parks in all of baseball, but tonight they’ll be visiting the park ranked 30th for hitters. AT&T Park has no offensive categories favoring hitters.
  • Busch Stadium – New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Busch Stadium is our second worst ballpark for hitters on this 13-game slate. Triples have been the only category favoring hitters.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Matt Moore1.143.375Cole Hamels.437.179
Drew Pomeranz.951.344James Paxton.437.167
Jordan Zimmermann.876.304Sean Manaea.451.154

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Derek Holland.902.282Max Scherzer.378.119
Ricky Nolasco.899.305Carlos Martinez.530.177
Kevin Gausman.896.336Carlos Carrasco.614.218

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Joey VottoZack Greinke292.89
Ryan ZimmermanR.A. Dickey392.33
Dustin PedroiaJake Odorizzi272.29

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jacob deGrom – NYM vs. STL – $11,800 – deGrom has been pitching extremely well as of late and lines up in a matchup with the Cardinals. Over his last four starts, deGrom is averaging 33.2 fantasy points with a 31:8 K:BB ratio. He’ll take on a Cardinals club that owns just a .314 wOBA at home with a decent 21.2 K%. deGrom is the second most expensive pitcher on this slate but gives you a $1,400 discount from Max Scherzer.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Carlos Gomez – TEX vs. LAA – $4,400 – I’m sure Gomez wasn’t a name you figured to see in this spot, but I’m digging his matchup with Ricky Nolasco. Gomez has been crushing it at home this season, posting a .439 wOBA with a 673 SLG with nine of his 12 home runs. Nolasco has struggled on the road and as you’d expect, he has allowed plenty of home runs. On the road against righties, Nolasco owns a .394 wOBA with a .606 SLG.

Save Big by Drafting…

Brian Goodwin – WAS vs. ATL – $3,400 – Goodwin continues to hover in the mid $3K range, making him one of my favorite value plays recently. This evening he’ll take on R.A. Dickey, who’s allowed a .328 wOBA to lefties with a .438 SLG. Goodwin has been productive at home against righties, posting a .468 wOBA with a .706 SLG with five of his seven home runs. 

Stack Em Up

New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Junior Guerra) – I think this is a terrible spot for Guerra against the Yankees. As if the matchup wasn’t bad enough, the fact that it’s in New York was the cherry on top for me. Guerra has been allowing a ton of hard contact as of late, sporting a 48% hard contact rate over his last three starts, which is 16% jump from his season average of 32%. With the Yankees being one of the best hitting teams at home this season, I can’t envision a scenario with Guerra coming out unscathed.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.