We have an eight game slate tonight to follow up on the six games from this afternoon. Let’s get you set for tonight, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

SFG (-210) vs. COL – Johnny Cueto – Cuteto will take on the Rockies for the third time this season at AT&T Park tonight. Cueto has been a thorn in the Rockies side this year, as he’s pitched fantastic in both of these starts, even with one of them coming at Coors Field. In total, Cueto has gone 14.1 against the Rockies allowing one run on 14 hits with a 8:3 K:BB ratio. Cueto may be the most expensive pitcher of the night, but he’s hardly an issue salary wise, as he’ll run you for only $11,800. Besides his awful start against the Phillies recently, Cueto has been as automatic as you can get this season. I personally will be grabbing him in all formats tonight, as he should be worth the price of admission.

Highest Totals

TEX vs. BOS – 10.5 runs – This is a huge number for a game not taking place at Coors Field. 10.5 runs is almost unheard of in normal conditions. I think the weather is playing a huge factor in this one, as it will be over 90 degrees in Boston today, “cooling” down to the mid 80’s for game time. That is some prime hitter’s weather right there folks. Steven Wright and Martin Perez will do their best to stifle these lineups, but it’s hard to see that happening on either side. The Red Sox remain one of the best against left-handed pitching this season, owning a .345 wOBA with a .358 OBP and a .441 SLG. Wright has faced this Rangers team once already this season and lasted 4.2 allowing eight runs (three earned) on seven hits with a 4:2 K:BB ratio. Let the runs pile up in this one.

Weather Concerns

NYY vs. CHW (Yankee Stadium) – Thunderstorms will be rolling their way through in this game, which gives it a legitimate chance of being postponed. Without any signs of clearing as the night progresses, I would keep an eye on this one closer to first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Any category that favors hitters has a rating of 1.000 or higher, anything below 1.000 favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field – SFG vs ARZ – Chase Field checks in as the most favored ballpark for hitters tonight. It has a favorable rating in runs, home runs, singles and doubles.
  • Rogers Centre – KCR vs TOR – Rogers Centre has been a popular hot spot for hitters this season. Coming into this game, it has a favorable rating every offensive category except triples.
  • Tropicana Field – LAA vs TBR – Tropicana Field continues to dwell near the bottom of the rankings for hitters this season. Currently, it does not favor any offensive category.
  • Busch Stadium – PIT vs STL – Busch Stadium checks in ranked 25th overall for hitters so far this season. Like Tropicana, it does not favor hitters in any category.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Shelby Miller.992.333Martin Perez.434.141
Jered Weaver.853.288Steven Wright.545.190
Michael Pineda.823.279Johnny Cueto.671.257

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Jered Weaver.883.311Johnny Cueto.547.208
Jorge De La Rosa.879.287Steven Wright.658.235
Mike Fiers.845.285Jaime Garcia.693.252

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

It’s a shorter than usual slate tonight and sadly, we don’t really have anything notable for BvP splits. I know, it’s upsetting to me as well. Tomorrow is a new day, and I promise we’ll get through this tough night together.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Michael Pineda – NYY vs CHW – $10,600 – I think it’s fairly safe to say that Cueto will be the most popular pitcher on the slate tonight, and rightfully so. Instead of repeating everything I said earlier, I can make a case for Pineda tonight as well. If you don’t pay attention to the Yankees, you very easily could have missed that Pineda has really straightened his act out lately. In the month of June, Pineda amassed a 2.75 ERA with a .256 wOBA against opposing hitters. On top of that, he saw his K/9 jump to 12.2 that month, after averaging 9.9 in the first two months of the season. The White Sox strikeout at a decent clip with a 21.3 K% against righties and own just a .306 wOBA against them. I think Pineda could be a nice pivot off of Cueto tonight or even pairing them together.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Xander Bogaerts – BOS vs. TEX (Martin Perez) – $4,900 – We like when Bogaerts faces left-handed pitchers this season. We also like when Bogaerts faces left-handed pitchers at Fenway Park this season. Bogaerts is coming into this game against Martin Perez owning a .403 wOBA with a .500 SLG and a .429 OBP. In what is slated to be the highest projected run total of the night, having exposure to this game is going to be key tonight in my opinion. While Bogaerts may not be the big power bat in the Sox lineup, his ability to do a little bit of everything makes him vastly attractive on any given night, let alone against a lefty.

Save Big by Drafting…

Justin Smoak – TOR vs. KCR (Ian Kennedy) – $3,200 – I usually am not a fan of where Smoak is in the lineup. He’s been batting around 7th for the most part which brings down his value on a nightly basis. However, I like this matchup for him tonight going up against Ian Kennedy. Kennedy is always a popular option to pick on as he has trouble keeping the ball in the park, allowing 20 home runs on the season. Smoak is a nice cheap option with power that has had success against righties at Rogers Centre. Smoak has hit five of his nine home runs at home against righties this season with a .351 wOBA. Hard to argue those numbers when he comes so cheap.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.