Ah yes, the dreaded beginning of the week has arrived. To help cure those Monday woes, we have a solid 11 game slate on tap for tonight. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

 

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

TOR (-225) vs. SDP – Aaron Sanchez – I mean, it’s at the point now that I didn’t even have to check the odds anymore, all I have to do is see whose pitching against the Padres and there you have it. Aaron Sanchez and the Blue Jays get the nod for tonight as the heavy favorites in an inter-league series at home. Sanchez comes into this contest with his struggling numbers at the Rogers Centre. This season at home, Sanchez owns a 4.07 ERA with a .317 wOBA and a K/9 of 7.2. On the other hand, Sanchez has been pitching his best this month, with a 1.80 ERA in 20 innings allowing just four runs on 14 hits with a .240 wOBA. The strikeout potential is a bit hard to predict here, but for what it’s worth, Sanchez has only faced one team in the top five for K% and owns a 10.6 K/9 in two starts against the Orioles. Personally, I think Sanchez is a bit overpriced for this start, but grabbing a score in the mid 20’s would do the trick.

CHC (-190) vs. CHW – Jake Arrieta – Man, it’s been rough for Arrieta lately and fantasy player alike. In the midst of his worst month this season, Arrieta currently possesses a .332 wOBA with a 5.40 ERA with a K/9 of 8.8 in 18.1 innings. He gets a matchup with their hometown rivals the White Sox tonight at U.S. Cellular Field. Immediately I see the $12,400 price tag for Arrieta and I scoff at the thought of taking him tonight. Maybe it’s a bit crazy, but I have a hard time trusting a pitcher that is averaging just 12.8 FPPG over his last five starts. Believe me, the White Sox don’t strike the fear of God in anyone, but strictly going off the “value” of Arrieta is enough to keep me away. If you’re fine with going YOLO, Arrieta does indeed have a good matchup on tap against a White Sox team that owns a .305 wOBA against righties with a .310 OBP and a .390 SLG. If Arrieta is the reason I lose tonight, I’ll happy go down because I took pitchers with better value tonight than just taking Arrieta because he’s “Jake Arrieta.”

Biggest Over/Unders

OAK vs. TEX – 10.5 runs – The A’s visit the Rangers tonight in what is the highest projected run total of the night. Daniel Mengden takes on Martin Perez in a matchup of two pitchers that have completely fallen off the rails lately. After four straight starts with score in the double digits (included the Rangers) Mengden is averaging just 3.6 FPPG over his last four. Mengden isn’t getting deep into games at all, having not seen the sixth inning since June 22nd and throwing an average of 94 pitches per start. The walks have been a killer for him, as he owns a 18:14 K:BB ratio in those last four games. In the Texas heat included, this is a fantastic spot for the Rangers.

Believe me; Perez is getting off the hook here either, as he’s been about as bad as it gets lately. In four starts this month, Perez is averaging 0.25 FPPG. Yup, you read that correctly. Perez is coming off a stretch of three starts where he’s been in the negative against the Angels, Cubs and Red Sox. Perez has and never will be a fantasy relevant pitcher with his lack of K upside, but he will certainly be useful for Oakland hitters tonight. I think the A’s could be a decent GPP stack tonight.

Weather Concerns

COL vs BAL (Camden Yards)- Camden Yards will feature a chance of thunderstorms during the later innings of the game, although I highly doubt you’ll be looking at pitchers in this one. A delay is most certainly in play, but I don’t think it will be enough to PPD.

STL vs NYM (Citi Field)- This game could be in serious danger of getting postponed, which will dramatically change how this slate is approached. As the lowest run total of the night, Citi Field will be dealing with thunderstorms the entire night. Keep a close eye on this one.

DET vs BOS (Fenway Park)- Same situation as Citi Field, Fenway will have thunderstorms lingering the entire night.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Kauffman Stadium – LAA vs KCR Kauffman Stadium checks in as the number one ballpark for hitters as the host the LA Angels. Coming into this series, Kauffman favors hitters in every offensive category except home runs.
  • Globe Life Park – OAK vs TEX – The A’s visit the number two ballpark for hitters tonight in the highest projected run total of the night. Globe Life park favors hitters in every offensive category.
  • Minute Maid Park – NYY vs HOU – Minute Maid Park checks in as the worst hitting ballpark of the night with the Yankees in town. Coming into tonight, only triples are favored here.
  • AT&T Park  – CIN vs SFGAT&T Park ranks as the second worst ballpark on the night even with singles, doubles triples and walks favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Yovani Gallardo.943.308Martin Perez.536.170
Jake Peavy.884.301Jake Arrieta.605.205
Anthony DeSclafani.883.333Drew Pomeranz.611.227

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Chase Anderson1.104.326Carlos Martinez.430.180
Jorge De La Rosa.871.293Anthony DeSclafani.500.192
Colin Rea.816.267Jake Arrieta.521.190

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterPitcherABFP/AB
Albert PujolsIan Kennedy104.5
David OrtizJustin Verlander292.44
Carlos GonzalezYovani Gallardo172.11

  • Albert Pujols kicks off our BvP section tonight with a short but sweet sample against Ian Kennedy. Pujols is 4-10 off Kennedy with a double, three home runs and four RBIs.
  • Next in line is David Ortiz, who has always shown success against Justin Verlander. Ortiz is 11-29 with four doubles, two home runs, four RBIs and four walks.
  • Finally we have Carlos Gonzalez taking on Yovani Gallardo at Camden Yards. Gonzalez is 7-17 with two doubles, a home run and two RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Dallas Keuchel – HOU vs NYY – $12,600 – It’s been quite some time since I was rolling with Keuchel in any format, let alone my top pitcher on the night. Now, overall, I love Carlos Martinez, but that weather is scaring me off at the time I’m writing this. At just $8,000, Keuchel faces a Yankees team that has struggled against lefties all season. Keuchel has been his best at Minute Maid Park this season, owning a 3.86 ERA in eight starts with a 1.19 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.7. The Yankees are near the cellar offensively against lefties this season, owning a .304 wOBA with a .316 OBP and a .383 SLG. They don’t strike out a ton, with a 17.1 K%, but Keuchel was able to register five K’s in his only start against them this season. I think he could be a solid SP2 if the Mets/Cardinals game clears up.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ vs. MIL (Chase Anderson) – $4,700 – On a night where we have so many players priced at $5K or above, I LOVE this spot for Goldy at $4,700. It’s true that Goldy has been fantastic against lefties this season, but Anderson is an absolute gas can when facing righties. On the season, Anderson owns a .430 wOBA with a .640 SLG with 12 of his 18 home runs allowed. Goldy owns a .365 wOBA against righties with 13 of his 17 home runs on the season. As one of the “cheaper” elite options tonight, Goldy is a must in my opinion.

Save Big by Drafting…

Mitch Moreland – TEX vs. OAK (Daniel Mengden) – $3,400 – This game has the highest projected run total of the night and Moreland is an intriguing option to get some cheap exposure to this game. Moreland has been playing first base since the injury to Prince Fielder and batting 7th in the lineup. While his lineup spot isn’t ideal, he will most certainly be left off the Rangers stack tonight, hopefully giving you a one up on everyone else. On the season, he owns a .311 wOBA against righties with nine of his 13 home runs.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.