Monday evening brings us a 12-game slate of baseball. Let’s jump right into all the information for tonight and start off the second-half with a bang. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Pitcher Favorite

Zack Greinke vs. Atlanta Braves ($11,900) – The Diamondbacks and Zack Greinke are heavy favorites tonight as they take on the Braves in Arizona. Fresh off one of his worst starts of the season, Greinke is allowing a 22% hard hit rate over his last three starts, which is down 12% over his yearly average of 34%. The Braves are projected on the low side of run production at 3.8, despite being one of the better hitting clubs on the road. Heading into this matchup, the Braves sport a .323 wOBA with a .429 SLG and a .333 OBP. If I had to guess, we could see lower than normal ownership for Greinke, as Jacob deGrom, who is $1,500 more expensive, takes on the strikeout prone San Diego Padres.

Highest Total

Miami Marlins vs. Texas Rangers– 11 runs – One of the highest totals you’ll see for a game that’s away from Coors Field, the Marlins and Rangers are projected for a whopping 11 runs tonight. The Rangers are the favorites in this one with a 6.1 run projection as they take on Adam Conley. Conley’s home and road splits are night and day, but he’s been fantastic on the road in 16.1 innings. In that span, Conley owns a .280 wOBA with a .350 SLG and a .290 OBP. It’s far too small of a sample size, as his home numbers reveal a .404 wOBA with a .532 SLG in 18.1 innings. For as good as his road numbers are, Conley has faced the Mets, Padres and Rays. The Rangers are one of the best hitting clubs at home, sporting a .344 wOBA with a .465 SLG and a .342 OBP. I wouldn’t let that small sample size fool you tonight.

Weather Concerns

Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Citizens Bank Park) – The Astros and Phillies will be under a thunderstorm threat that diminishes as the night progresses. As of this afternoon, it looks like if they can start this game on time, they could be safe for the remainder of the evening. Keep an eye out closer to first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

Chase Field- Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -Chase Field is our most favorable ballpark tonight where all offensive categories are favored.

Globe Life Park- Miami Marlins vs. Texas Rangers -Home to the highest projected run total of the night, Globe Life Park is our second most favorable ballpark. All offensive categories with the exception of triples are favored here.

AT&T Park -Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants – AT&T Park is the worst out of all these ballparks tonight. No offensive categories are favored here.

Busch Stadium – Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Moving from the best offensive ballpark to one of the worst, the Rockies visit Busch Stadium starting tonight. Triples and walks are the only categories favored here.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Brad Peacock – Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies- $11,500 – Peacock continues to impress on the mound, and tonight he’s set to take on the Phillies in Philadelphia. On the road, Peacock sports a .269 wOBA with a .297 SLG and a .299 OBP to go with his K/9 of 11.2. The Phillies remain one of the worst hitting clubs in their home ballpark this season, posting just a .313 wOBA with a K% of 21.1. Peacock is a bit expensive tonight at $11,500, but he’s almost a $2K savings from Jacob deGrom and a $400 savings from Greinke. I can see Peacock being the lowest owned of the studs tonight, making him one of my top plays.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Giancarlo Stanton – Miami Marlins vs. Texas Rangers – $5,500 – I will happily pay up for the most expensive hitter on this slate tonight in Giancarlo Stanton. I love his matchup in the humid weather against Martin Perez, who is allowing a .381 wOBA to righties at home with a .500 SLG and seven of his 11 home runs on the season. Stanton has crushed lefties on this road this season, owning a .446 wOBA with a .750 SLG.

Save Big by Drafting…

Yoenis Cespedes – New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres- $3,600 – Cespedes has been struggling at the plate as of late, but I’m digging his matchup against Clayton Richard tonight. Over his last ten games, Cespedes is only averaging 5.5 fantasy points hitting two doubles with three RBIs. However, on the road against lefties, Cespedes is posting a .412 wOBA with a .750 SLG. Richard has allowed all 16 of his home runs against righties with six of them happening at home.

Stack Em Up

L.A. Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins (Bartolo Colon) – Bartolo Colon doesn’t have much left in the tank, as evidenced by his four inning debut for the Twins where he allowed four runs on eight hits with a 3:0 K: BB ratio against the Yankees. Tonight, it doesn’t get much easier against this high-powered Dodgers offense that owns a .351 wOBA at home with a .484 SLG and a .348 SLG. I can’t imagine Colon shutting this offense down and certainly can see a quick exit for the Twins’ newest starter. I will say though if you’re stacking this Dodgers club, be prepared to go cheap on pitching.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.