Well, no one likes Mondays, but at least we have a solid 11 game slate to look forward to. As always, I’ll get you ready for this slate. Feel free to get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

MIA (-200) vs. PHI – Jose Fernandez – Well, this one could be ugly. Fernandez and the Marlins get the nod for the heaviest favorites tonight against the Phillies in Philadelphia. It’s no surprise that Fernandez is the most expensive pitcher on this slate tonight at $13,800, which is $1,600 more than Chris Sale. The upside for Fernandez is always the huge strikeout appeal here, as his 12.9 K/9 on the season, which dips ever so slightly on the road to 12.

If you’ve read this Cheat Sheet before, you know how poorly this Phillies team is, especially at home, which is just putrid to think about. At Citizens Bank Park this season, the Phillies own a .268 wOBA with a .279 ONP and a .348 SLG. The cherry on top of all of this, is the 25.1 K%, which ranks 4th in the league. To say that Fernandez has tremendous upside in this matchup may be an understatement, as he could easily walk out of this start with over 30 points.

STL (-178) vs. SD –Mike Leake – Leake is coming off the best start of the season in a seven inning effort against the Brewers. Leake allowed one run on six hits with a 10:0 K:BB ratio. The 10 strikeouts were by far a season high, as his previous was six, which he had done three times. Leake is not usually a big strikeout guy, as he owns a 6.1 K/9 on the season and has reached double digit strikeouts just three times in his six year career. However, the intriguing aspect we have here is that the Padres are another team that strikes out a ton. Against righties, the Padres own a 27.1 K% on the season.

Highest Totals

TBR vs. COL – 12 runs – Ah yes, another homestead for the Rockies which means another few days about talking about how these games are the highest run total of the night. We have a high 12 runs projected for this game that features Drew Smyly and Tyler Anderson. Smyly has been horrible on the road this season and just in general. Owning a 6.02 ERA in nine road starts with a 1.51 WHIP will certainly be a cause for concern in this matchup tonight. Even if the Rockies were horrible against lefties, which they aren’t, facing Smyly in this matchup tonight should bring nothing but crooked numbers for the Rockies.

Anderson is an interesting situation here tonight as he’s pitched his best baseball in Coors this season. In five home games, Anderson owns a 2.63 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP allowing seven runs in 24 innings. On the other hand, the Rays are one of the best hitting clubs against lefties this season, with a .338 wOBA and a .451 SLG.

Weather Concerns

ATL vs CIN (Great American Ballpark) – This game features thunderstorms all throughout the night with no clearing in sight. Obviously the track of these storms will be crucial, so make sure to keep a close eye on this one as it gets closer to first pitch.

TBR vs COL (Coors Field) – This game has a chance of rain all throughout the day that will end up clearing up completely after first pitch. We could see a delay here, but shouldn’t be anything more than that.

Check out today’s full weather forecast here

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. If an offensive category has a rating of 1.000 or higher, it favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 favors pitching.

  • Coors Field – TBR vs COL – The Rays go from one of the worst ballparks in all of baseball to one of the best at Coors Field. As always, Coors favors hitters in every offensive category.
  • Kauffman Stadium – CLE vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium is currently listed as third in the league in terms of favorable parks for hitters. Coming into this game, it has a favorable rating in runs, singles, doubles and triples.
  • Citizens Bank Park – MIA vs PHI – Quite mind boggling that Citizens Bank Park is currently listed as the worst park for hitters right now. Citizens Bank Park only has a favorable rating in home runs and triples.
  • Wrigley Field – NYM vs CHC – Also a bit shocking to see Wrigley ranked so low this season, as it’s 28th overall. Triples and walks are the only categories that have favorable ratings here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Ivan Nova.882.288Tyler Anderson.527.233
Kendall Graveman.831.294Jon Lester.578.207
A.J. Griffin.835262Corey Kluber.622.221

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Mike Fiers.862.288Jose Fernandez.467.172
Ricky Nolasco.857.320Corey Kluber.573.211
Kevin Gausman.853.296A.J. Griffin.576.200

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Mark TrumboIvan Nova193.42
Nelson CruzChris Sale162.93
Matt WietersIvan Nova372.72

  • Ivan Nova has not had an easy going with the Orioles in his career, as we have multiple players with good BvP against him. Trumbo is one of them, as he’s 10-19 with a double, three home runs and five RBIs.
  • Nelson Cruz has historically hit lefties well in his career, so it should come as no surprise that he’s done well against someone like Chris Sale. Cruz is 7-16 with two home runs, four RBIs and two walks.
  • Finally, we have another another Orioles hitter in Wieters taking on Nova. Wieters is 13-37 with three doubles, four home runs, seven RBIs and seven walks.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jose Fernandez – MIA vs. PHI – $13,800 It just has to be Fernandez tonight. I always mention that I don’t like recommending the top priced pitcher of the night because well, no kidding. As I stated earlier, the strikeout potential for Fernandez is always immensely high, and the Phillies do it a ton against right-handed pitchers with a 25.1 K%. His price tag is high, and a lot of people fear that a player won’t be able to return the value on that price. While I tend to agree, I feel like this is one of those matchups where it can happen.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Mark Trumbo – BAL vs NYY (Ivan Nova) – $5,000 – I just love Trumbo, this guy has been a beast the entire season and gets to play in Yankee Stadium tonight. Besides his solid BvP line against Ivan Nova, Trumbo has been a force against right-handed pitching all season. Coming into this game, Trumbo owns a .404 wOBA against them with a .587 SLG and a .370 OBP.

Save Big by Drafting…

Carlos Beltran – NYY vs BAL (Kevin Gausman) – $3,200 – This is going to be a hard slate to find some value on tonight, so be prepared for that as you dive down into the basement for hitters. Beltran feels like one of the few values we have on the board tonight with his matchup against Kevin Gausman. Against righties at Yankee Stadium, Beltran owns a .364 wOBA with a .534 SLG. Gausman has had the majority of his struggles on the road against righties, owning a .382 wOBA with six of his 15 home runs allowed.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.