We have 10 games going today that are split down the middle. Five in the afternoon slate and five tonight. The pitching is going to be tough to roster, so lets help you navigate through this. Let’s jump right into it and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Heaviest Pitcher Favorites
Zack Greinke vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-236) – Chances of Greinke being 100% owned this afternoon? It’s going to be close. Greinke is having one hell of a year, as we stare in amazement at his 1.42 ERA to go with a 0.83 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.9. He gets those sad Phillies, who are still firing up the ranks in batting average, now ranking 13th in the league. However, the rest of thier offensive stats have yet to catch up. They rank 27th in runs scored, 26th in OPS and 29th in home runs. They do however, have the highest wOBA in all of baseball in the last two weeks. At this point though, it’s almost crazy to give anyone a chance against Greinke. Averaging 24.1 points per start, Greinke is by far the most expensive pitcher on the day/night. You’ll certainly be safe with rostering him today, it’s just matter of if you’re ok with him being rostered by 80% of the field.
Mark Buehrle vs. Minnesota Twins (-180)- It boggles my mind that Mark Buehrle, yes THE Mark Buehrle, is going to run you for almost $9000 tonight if you roster him. But, this isn’t an insult, it’s well deserved. Buehrle has found the fountain of youth and comes into tonight with a 3.32 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and a low 4.5 K/9. Has Buehrle been pitching well? Absolutely. Is he worth the $8900 price tag? I’m not so sure about that. Averaging only 14.7 points per start, Buehrle is clearly not a strikeout guy, as evident by his really low K/9. If you aren’t getting points from strikeouts, well, where is it going to come from? He’d have to have clean innings tonight to really get his point total up. That’s honestly asking for a bit much. In his last three starts, Buehrle hasn’t exceeded three strikeouts against Oakland, Seattle, and Kansas City. Granted, Oakland and Kansas City aren’t easy teams to strike out, but Seattle is. Overall, is Buerhle a bad pick on a short slate? Not exactly, but just be aware that it might be tough for him to reach value.
CC Sabathia vs. Boston Red Sox (-156) – Ohhhhhh, burnnnnnn! Sorry Red Sox, even Vegas thinks you guys suck. I mean, you have a pitcher who owns a 5.54 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP going against you, and you can’t even get some love from Vegas. Sabathia has not been good this season. Scoring a whopping 3.5 points in his last TWO starts. He’s not someone I would even consider going for. But, if you’re a big Vegas person, he’s one of your guys tonight. Sabathia continues to really struggle against right handed batters, which has been one of his biggest downfalls in the past couple of years. He’s allowing a ton of home runs, 24, and just doesn’t seem to have the zip on his fastball anymore. Even against a weak Red Sox offense, he’s tough to roster tonight.
Top Overall Game Over/Unders
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (Yankee Stadium) – 9 Over/Under- No Rockies game, so we have the Sox and Yankess projected as the highest run total of the night. Eduardo Rodriguez going up against CC Sabathia in this one. We’ve touched on Sabathia just a minute ago, so let’s take a look at Rodriguez. He enters tonights start with 4.34 ERA to go with a 1.25 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.6. Rodriguez has had quite the rollar coaster season. He comes out and throws pure fire against the Tigers, scoring 27.4 points, then faces the Tampa Bay Rays his last time out, and only manages 7.3. Going against one of the best offenses in the league, it’s truly tough to figure out which Rodriguez shows up. He’s had a lot of problems this season tipping pitches, a big enough factor that it’s been discussed many times as being the reason he’s getting hit so hard. With this, combined with Sabathia struggling this year, this is a clear cut favorite to get some of these hitters in your lineup.
Toughest Left/Right Matchups
Toughest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
Zack Greinke vs. Philadelpia Phillies – Of course Greinke is going to be here. It would almost be insulting if he wasn’t On the season, Greinke is holding lefties to a .185 avearge.
Michael Wacha vs. Cincinnati Reds- Wacha get the Reds tonight on the road. Against lefties this season, Wacha is holding them to a .200 avearge.
Toughest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Joe Ross vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Since getting the call to the majors, Ross has been very impressive. He’s only allowing a .165 avearge when facing righties.
Zack Greinke vs. Philadelphia Phillies- Greinke isn’t allowing anything from anyone at this point. Even righties can only muster a .187 avearge against him.
Best Left/Right Matchups
Easiest Pitcher vs. Left Handed Batters.
David Buchanan vs. LA Dodgers – David is not doing a good job in keeping the legacy of the Buchanan’s alive. When facing lefties, they’re crushing him to a .333 average. His invitation to our family reunion has been disposed.
Mike Lorenzen vs. St. Louis Cardinals- Lorenzen had high hopes coming into the 2015 season. To answer those hopes, he has a .326 avearge against lefties to show for it.
Easiest Pitcher vs. Right Handed Batters
CC Sabathia vs. Boston Red Sox- I told you, Sabathia is just a machine of struggles when it comes to righties. They’re whacking him around all season to a tune of .331. I think his work horse years are catching up to him. Or, he’s just old. Both?
Jose Urena vs. Atlanta Braves – Making his second start since being recalled from Triple A, his hopes of having his average against righties reset were dashed. He still owns the .330 average against right handed batters.
Mark Teixeria ($5400) – Tex, man, batting cleanup for the Yankees and making the most of it lately. He’s 10 for his last 24 with five home runs, 11 RBIs and seven runs scored.
Josh Donaldson ($6200) – It’s almost unfair how good the Toronto lineup is. They’re like the bully in elementary school, no one is going to try and mess with them. The Blue Jays will take your lunch money and then turn around and buy something with it just to throw it away. Why? Because they can. Donaldson is 10 for his last 28 with five home runs, 12 RBIs, and seven runs scored.
Matt Carpenter ($4800) – Carpenter is a really solid hitter. It surprises me a bit that I haven’t featured him here yet this season. Coming into tonight, Carpenter is 10 for his last 25 with five home runs, eight RBIs, and eight runs scored.
Best Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
Josh Reddick vs. Scott Feldman- As always, make sure Reddick is actually in the lineup tonight. If he is, he’s got some good numbers against Feldman. Reddick is 7-23 against Feldman with five extra base hits, three of them being home runs and a 1.167 OPS.
Joey Votto vs. Michael Wacha – Votto hasn’t seen a ton of Wacha, but in the short time he’s had, he’s made it count. Votto is 6-15 against Wacha with three extra base hits, one of those being a home run and a 1.204 OPS. It’s a REALLY weak BvP day so you only get two. All refunds can be redeemed at the front ticket booth.
Two games have a threat of rain. The Cardinals and Reds are the biggest threat while the Marlins and Braves also have some in their forecast. Watch these ones closely.
One Pitcher To Build Lineups Around
Zack Greinke ($13,500) – Anyone who’s read this article before, knows I’m not a big fan of taking the obvious choices here. If you already knew the picks, you wouldn’t read this section. But, I would be grasping at straws if I tried to go elsewhere picking a pitcher. Greinke as the top pick today/tonight is the clear cut winner here. As I mentioned earlier, the Phillies are hitting much better lately. They have the top wOBA in all of baseball in the last two weeks, but a lot of that has to do with their success against lefties, not so much righties. Even though he going to be highly owned in your matchups this afternoon, is it really worth trying to fade him? I’d rather be running with the pack here and trying to gain the advantage with a couple of value hitters then hoping for an implosion that most likely won’t come.
Superstar Worth Paying For
Adrian Gonzalez ($4700) –Gonzalez gets a tasty matchup against David Buchanan this afternoon. Yes, I’m fully aware that I’m putting the Buchanan name out for more scrunity, but we’re trying to get that money today! Buchanan enters with an atricious 6.44 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He’s averaging just under a home run a start and Gonzlaez is prime for one. Besides the fact righties are hitting .292 off of him, Gonzalez is hitting .292 himself with 19 home runs and a .927 OPS. Gonzalez, along with the Dodgers, are great targets this afternoon.
Save Big Bucks By Drafting…
Chris Young ($3300) – We have a left hander Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound for the Red Sox tonight, so that only means one thing, Chris Young! Young is a monster when he faces left handed pitching, hitting .371 with seven home runs and a 1.127 OPS. He’s been on fire the second half of the season as well, hitting .389 with three home runs and a 1.230 OPS. At just $3300 at Yankee Stadium, he’s worth the price.