After a six game slate this afternoon, we have nine games going tonight. Let’s get you set for this slate, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

CLE (-270) vs MIN – Corey Kluber – Kluber and the Indians are the heavy favorites on this slate tonight as they take on the Twins at Progressive Field. This will be the second time that Kluber has faced the Twins. In the first game he pitched 6.2 innings allowing four runs on seven hits with a 7:3 K:BB ratio. That game was played at Progressive Field, but it was also during a time that Kluber was having some issues on the mound. Since the All-Star break, Kluber has been fantastic, posting a .292 wOBA with a 1.83 ERA with a K/9 of 9.3. The Twins don’t strikeout a ton, owning a 19.9 K% against right-handed batters, but Kluber is always a candidate to grab strikeouts in bunches, as he’s induced double-digit swings and misses in all but four of his 26 starts this season.

Highest Totals

TOR vs. BAL – 9.5 runs – – So it should be noted that the Dodgers/Rockies game is NOT included in this slate tonight, as the slate was released before it was postponed. With that being the case, the Blue Jays and Orioles check in as our highest projected run total for tonight. Aaron Sanchez and Yovani Gallardo will take the mound in this one. Gallardo is fresh off one of his worst performances of all time, where he allowed eight runs (seven earned) on six hits in just 1.1 innings to the Yankees. In case you’re curious, that amounts to a 47.25 ERA. Gallardo has been decent at home, but in no way shape or form can he be trusted. Even with being “decent” at home, he’s still allowing a .337 wOBA at Camden Yards.

For Sanchez, he faces the Orioles for the fourth time this season where he hasn’t come away with very good results. In 18 innings, Sanchez has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) on 20 hits with a 16:7 K:BB ratio. Sanchez has been better on the road than he has at home, but the Orioles still remain near the top of the league when it comes to offensive numbers at home. As of tonight, the Orioles own a .348 wOBA with a .486 SLG.

Weather Concerns

TOR vs. BAL (Camden Yards) – This game should start off with no issues, but thunderstorms could roll in later in the game causing some disruption.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Progressive Field – MIN vs CLE – Progressive Field gets the nod as our number one ballpark for hitting tonight. Coming into this game with the Twins, every offensive category with the exception of triples gets the nod here.
  • Kauffman Stadium – NYY vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium checks in as our number two favorable ballpark for hitters. Every offensive category except home runs is favored here.
  • Citizen Bank Park – WAS vs PHI – Citizen Bank Park has been near the bottom of the league in terms of ballparks almost the entire season. As of tonight, only triples get the nod here.
  • Wrigley Field – PIT vs CHC – Wrigley Field is number two for parks in the red as they host the Pirates. Only walks have a favorable ratings for hitters.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Matt Garza.877.313Gio Gonzalez.575.202
Ryan Vogelsong.865.294Pat Dean.604.225
Yovani Gallardo.845.281Brandon Finnegan.626.220

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Paul Clemens1.003.316David Phelps.464.174
Adam Morgan.997.328Aaron Sanchez.565.224
Pat Dean.978.335Corey Kluber.609.214

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Chris DavisAaron Sanchez144.21
Edwin EncarnacionYovani Gallardo203.55
Brandon MossMatt Garza152.47

  • Another night that has a ton of BvP stats. We start off with Chris Davis taking on Aaron Sanchez. Davis has gone 6-14 with a double, three home runs, four RBIs and five walks.
  • Next we have Edwin Encarnacion taking on Yovani Gallardo. Encarnacion has gone 8-20 with a double, three home runs, seven RBIs and five walks.
  • Last but not least we showcase Brandon Moss and Matt Garza. Moss is 7-15 with a solo home run.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Luke Weaver – STL vs MIL – $4,500 – I’m going to focus on the SP2 for tonight in this section. Weaver is a very nice value on this slate tonight as he matches up against the Brewers. Weaver has made only three starts in the Bigs and has come away with some impressive results. Facing the Cubs, Phillies and Athletics, Weaver owns a 3.60 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.6. Facing a Brewers team that leads the league in K% against righties at an insane 27.1%, Weaver possesses some great swing and miss stuff to grab at least a handful of K’s in this one. Again, at his price, you really can’t beat the value you’ll get here.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Anthony Rizzo – CHC vs. PIT (Ryan Vogelsong) – $5,300 – Give credit where credit is due, Vogelsong has actually looked decent at times this season with the Pirates. However, I don’t like him in this matchup at all against the Cubs. Left-handed batters have always haunted Vogelsong all throughout his career, as he owns a lifetime .341 wOBA against them with a .440 SLG. In the short sample size this year, it’s more of the same with his .376 wOBA and .471 SLG. At home against righties, Rizzo owns a .389 wOBA with a .532 SLG with seven home runs.

Save Big by Drafting…

Yangervis Solarte – SDP vs. ATL (Matt Wisler) – $3,100 – Solarte is always so cheap, and it’s a bargain when you figure he’s usually batting 3rd in the order. He faces off against Matt Wisler tonight, who at home allows a .374 wOBA to left-handed batters with a .436 SLG. Wisler is no stranger to letting a few bombs up with 22 on the season and 11 of those coming at home. Solarte owns a .367 wOBA on the road against right-handed pitchers with seven of his 13 home runs allowed. Hard to pass up the price of Solarte in such a prime spot of the lineup.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.