After a six game slate this afternoon, we have nine games going tonight. Let’s get you set for this slate, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
CLE (-270) vs MIN – Corey Kluber – Kluber and the Indians are the heavy favorites on this slate tonight as they take on the Twins at Progressive Field. This will be the second time that Kluber has faced the Twins. In the first game he pitched 6.2 innings allowing four runs on seven hits with a 7:3 K:BB ratio. That game was played at Progressive Field, but it was also during a time that Kluber was having some issues on the mound. Since the All-Star break, Kluber has been fantastic, posting a .292 wOBA with a 1.83 ERA with a K/9 of 9.3. The Twins don’t strikeout a ton, owning a 19.9 K% against right-handed batters, but Kluber is always a candidate to grab strikeouts in bunches, as he’s induced double-digit swings and misses in all but four of his 26 starts this season.
TOR vs. BAL – 9.5 runs – – So it should be noted that the Dodgers/Rockies game is NOT included in this slate tonight, as the slate was released before it was postponed. With that being the case, the Blue Jays and Orioles check in as our highest projected run total for tonight. Aaron Sanchez and Yovani Gallardo will take the mound in this one. Gallardo is fresh off one of his worst performances of all time, where he allowed eight runs (seven earned) on six hits in just 1.1 innings to the Yankees. In case you’re curious, that amounts to a 47.25 ERA. Gallardo has been decent at home, but in no way shape or form can he be trusted. Even with being “decent” at home, he’s still allowing a .337 wOBA at Camden Yards.
For Sanchez, he faces the Orioles for the fourth time this season where he hasn’t come away with very good results. In 18 innings, Sanchez has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) on 20 hits with a 16:7 K:BB ratio. Sanchez has been better on the road than he has at home, but the Orioles still remain near the top of the league when it comes to offensive numbers at home. As of tonight, the Orioles own a .348 wOBA with a .486 SLG.
TOR vs. BAL (Camden Yards) – This game should start off with no issues, but thunderstorms could roll in later in the game causing some disruption.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.
- Progressive Field – MIN vs CLE – Progressive Field gets the nod as our number one ballpark for hitting tonight. Coming into this game with the Twins, every offensive category with the exception of triples gets the nod here.
- Kauffman Stadium – NYY vs KCR – Kauffman Stadium checks in as our number two favorable ballpark for hitters. Every offensive category except home runs is favored here.
- Citizen Bank Park – WAS vs PHI – Citizen Bank Park has been near the bottom of the league in terms of ballparks almost the entire season. As of tonight, only triples get the nod here.
- Wrigley Field – PIT vs CHC – Wrigley Field is number two for parks in the red as they host the Pirates. Only walks have a favorable ratings for hitters.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Matt Garza||.877||.313||Gio Gonzalez||.575||.202|
|Ryan Vogelsong||.865||.294||Pat Dean||.604||.225|
|Yovani Gallardo||.845||.281||Brandon Finnegan||.626||.220|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Paul Clemens||1.003||.316||David Phelps||.464||.174|
|Adam Morgan||.997||.328||Aaron Sanchez||.565||.224|
|Pat Dean||.978||.335||Corey Kluber||.609||.214|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Chris Davis||Aaron Sanchez||14||4.21|
|Edwin Encarnacion||Yovani Gallardo||20||3.55|
|Brandon Moss||Matt Garza||15||2.47|
- Another night that has a ton of BvP stats. We start off with Chris Davis taking on Aaron Sanchez. Davis has gone 6-14 with a double, three home runs, four RBIs and five walks.
- Next we have Edwin Encarnacion taking on Yovani Gallardo. Encarnacion has gone 8-20 with a double, three home runs, seven RBIs and five walks.
- Last but not least we showcase Brandon Moss and Matt Garza. Moss is 7-15 with a solo home run.
Pitcher to Build Around
Luke Weaver – STL vs MIL – $4,500 – I’m going to focus on the SP2 for tonight in this section. Weaver is a very nice value on this slate tonight as he matches up against the Brewers. Weaver has made only three starts in the Bigs and has come away with some impressive results. Facing the Cubs, Phillies and Athletics, Weaver owns a 3.60 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.6. Facing a Brewers team that leads the league in K% against righties at an insane 27.1%, Weaver possesses some great swing and miss stuff to grab at least a handful of K’s in this one. Again, at his price, you really can’t beat the value you’ll get here.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Anthony Rizzo – CHC vs. PIT (Ryan Vogelsong) – $5,300 – Give credit where credit is due, Vogelsong has actually looked decent at times this season with the Pirates. However, I don’t like him in this matchup at all against the Cubs. Left-handed batters have always haunted Vogelsong all throughout his career, as he owns a lifetime .341 wOBA against them with a .440 SLG. In the short sample size this year, it’s more of the same with his .376 wOBA and .471 SLG. At home against righties, Rizzo owns a .389 wOBA with a .532 SLG with seven home runs.
Save Big by Drafting…
Yangervis Solarte – SDP vs. ATL (Matt Wisler) – $3,100 – Solarte is always so cheap, and it’s a bargain when you figure he’s usually batting 3rd in the order. He faces off against Matt Wisler tonight, who at home allows a .374 wOBA to left-handed batters with a .436 SLG. Wisler is no stranger to letting a few bombs up with 22 on the season and 11 of those coming at home. Solarte owns a .367 wOBA on the road against right-handed pitchers with seven of his 13 home runs allowed. Hard to pass up the price of Solarte in such a prime spot of the lineup.
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