We have an eight game slate going tonight with only four pitchers priced at $10K or above. Let’s get you set for tonight, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

CHC (-205) vs SDP– Jon Lester – Jon Lester and the Cubs are tapped as the heavy favorites for tonight as they take on the Padres. Lester will face the Padres for the second time this season. In the first game, he pitched six innings allowing three runs on four hits with a 4:1 K:BB ratio. Lester looks to continue a solid month of August, as he’s held opposing hitters to a .231 wOBA with a .306 SLG, a .227 OBP and a 9.6 K/9. The Padres remain one of the favorite teams to target against when facing a left-handed pitcher, as they own just a .317 wOBA with a 25.3 K%, which ranks third in the league. Since the All-Star Break, the Padres have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league, owning a .303 wOBA with a 25.8 K%.

Highest Totals

ATL vs. ARZ – 9.5 runs – The Braves visit the Arizona Diamondbacks for a series at Chase Field starting tonight and carry with it the highest projected run total of the night. Mike Foltynewicz takes on Zack Godley in this one where runs will certainly be present. Folty pitched one of his best games of the season against Arizona, allowing just two runs in seven innings of work with a 8:0 K:BB ratio. However, that game took place at Turner Field, and now he faces them on the road, where he’s been his worst. Allowing a .370 wOBA with a .537 SLG on the road, Folty has allowed 11 of his 14 home runs, averaging out to almost two per start. Lefties have especially hit him hard on the road, allowing a .389 wOBA with a .578 SLG.

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns for tonight!

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field – ARZ vs ATL – Another reason for the highest projected run total for this game is the favorable ballpark. Coming into this game, Chase Field favors every offensive category except walks.
  • Petco Park – CHC vs SDP – Petco Park actually has some offensive categories that favor hitters, if you believe that or not. Coming into today, runs, singles and doubles all get the nod here.
  • Oakland Coliseum – CLE vs OAK – The Indians visit one of the worst ballparks for hitters today and number one on our list. As of tonight, only triples are favored here.
  • Tropicana Field – BOS vs TBR – Another black hole of a ballpark for hitters, the Red Sox visit the Rays for a series. Tropicana does not have a single category favoring hitters.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Doug Fister.868.294Jon Lester.596.210
Mike Foltynewicz.850.262Blake Snell.608.232
Jimmy Nelson.798.247Stephen Strasburg.624.203

Editor’s Note: Stephen Strasburg has been placed on the DL and will not start tonight. A.J. Cole has been recalled and will start in his place, per Mark Zuckerman

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Edwin Jackson.825.280Doug Fister.571.208
Michael Pineda.792.273Jameson Taillon.612.223
Jimmy Nelson.787.283Jon Lester.642.220

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Adam LindMichael Pineda142.92
Billy ButlerCarlos Carrasco252

  • Even on an eight game slate, I was hoping for a bit more in terms of BvP tonight, but alas, we only have two worth mentioning. Adam Lind has gone 5-14 off of Michael Pineda with two doubles, two home runs and four RBIs.
  • The other BvP worth mentioning is Billy Butler taking on Carlos Carrasco. Butler has gone 8-25 with two home runs, four RBIs and two walks.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

David Price – BOS vs TBR – $11,000 – David Price takes on his former team tonight at Tropicana Field where, on paper, this matchup is as good as it gets for Price. We all know the ups and downs of Price in 2016, as he comes into this start with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, topped off with a K/9 of 9.1. This will be the fourth time that Price will be facing the Rays this season with one good start coupled with two bad ones. In the most recent, Price went eight shutout innings, allowing four hits with 10 strikeouts. Again, on paper, this should be a no-brainer start for Price against a team that owns .298 wOBA against lefties with a .386 SLG and a 25.7 K%. It’s been tough to trust Price, but he has a lot of factors in his favor tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Jake Lamb – ARZ vs. ATL (Mike Foltynewicz) – $4,300 – Lamb is extremely cheap tonight and it makes him all the more attractive in this matchup against Mike Foltynewicz. Coming into this game, Folty owns a .389 wOBA against lefties on the road with a .578 SLG and a .366 OBP. Lamb has been slumping pretty hard as of late, and, thus, is why his price has gone down so much. Nonetheless, the matchup is certainly in his favor with the park factor as well. Lamb still owns a .418 wOBA at home with a .650 SLG.

Save Big by Drafting…

Sandy Leon – BOS vs. TBR  (Blake Snell) – $3,300 – At first, it was a bit of a ha-ha kind of joke, Sandy Leon is hitting extremely well, but we all know it wont last. Well guess what, it’s still lasting. Leon is hitting an insane .386 on the season with seven home runs, 25 RBIs and averaging 8.4 FPPG. Against lefties, Leon owns a .535 wOBA with a .783 SLG and a 1.309 OPS.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.