We have eight games going tonight on the non-waiver trade deadline day! Make sure to keep an eye on any trades that take place today, as those players would not be available in games tonight. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

CLE (-225) vs. MIN – Danny Salazar – Salazar and the Indians are the heavy favorites tonight, as they play the Twins at home. Salazar will face the Twins for the second time this season where he came away with a very odd start that game. Salazar lasted just 4.2 innings while allowing three runs on three hits with a 4:3 K:BB ratio. Salazar has been better on the road than he has at Progressive Field, but that is to be expected in such a hitter friendly ballpark. Also, when we talk about pitching “worse” at home, Salazar still owns a .275 wOBA with a .361 SLG. The look of the Twins has changed drastically since the trade of Eduardo Nunez and not for the better, as the Twins own a .317 wOBA against righties with a .324 OBP. Salazar should be a fine play tonight against this Twins offense.

Highest Totals

BOS vs. SEA – 8.5 runs – – I don’t think I’ve seen the highest projected run total sit at 8.5 all season. This is by far the lowest projected run scoring slate of the season. I landed on this Red Sox/Seattle game because I truly think this has the potential for some runs with the pitchers we have going on the mound here. Both pitchers, Eduardo Rodriguez for the Red Sox and James Paxton for the Mariners, have been having their fair share of issues thus far. Rodriguez is entering this game with a 6.51 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP and an ERA just over 7 on the road. Even pitching in a park like Safeco Field may not completely save him here, as he hasn’t really shown any signs of life on that mound.

Weather Concerns

NYY vs NYM (Citi Field) – This game will feature a chance of thunderstorms the entire night without much of a chance of clearing. Obviously a lot can change between now and tonight, but this is certainly worth watching.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Progressive Field – MIN vs CLE Progressive Field checks in as our numbers one ballpark on this Monday night. Coming into this game, Progressive has a favorable rating in every offensive category except triples.
  • Chase Field – WAS vs ARZ Chase Field for the Diamondbacks is our second most favorable ballpark and number four overall in baseball. As of tonight, it has a favorable rating in every offensive category except doubles and walks.
  • Wrigley Field – MIA vs CHC – Still seems crazy to me that Wrigley is ranked so low in 2016. Coming into this game against the Marlins, Wrigley Field only favors walks.
  • Tropicana Field – KCR vs TBR – Tropicana Field has been ranked near the bottom of the league all season, although they’ve jumped up a few spots as of late. Nonetheless, Tropicana does not have a favorable category for hitters.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Jose Berrios1.007.375Danny Duffy.524.208
Archie Bradley.922.299Stephen Strasburg.550.182
Doug Fister.870.284Danny Salazar.562.191

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Jose Berrios1.205.276Doug Fister.546.201
Eduardo Rodriguez.936.299Kyle Hendricks.564.200
Logan Verrett .866.267Stephen Strasburg.591.209

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Kendrys MoralesChris Archer133.76
Brian DozierDanny Salazar213.33
Jose BautistaDoug Fister132.46

  • For a slate like tonight, we actually have a few impressive BvP numbers to showcase. We start off with Kendrys Morales, who has had some huge success against Chris Archer. Morales is 8-13 with three doubles, a home run and five RBIs.
  • To say that Dozier has owned Salazar in their matchups may be an understatement. Dozier is 10-21 with five doubles, two home runs, six RBIs and two walks.
  • Last but not least, Jose Bautista has faced Doug Fister a handful of times and seen some decent success. Bautista is 6-13 with three doubles, two RBIs and two walks.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jimmy Nelson – MIL vs SDP – $7,800 – Not what you expected, was it? Now, Stephen Strasburg is most certainly your top option tonight, although I’m not thrilled with that matchup taking place at Chase Field. Other than that, Nelson intrigues me a lot tonight, and I think he could be in line for a solid start. If you look at his 10-game log, it doesn’t look very appealing, as he’s hasn’t been scoring in the double digits very often. However, this is a seriously depleted Padres team that strikes out a ton against righties and has lost the majority of their big bats. With the team that remains (at least at the time of writing which is early this morning) the Padres have a K% of 24.6%, ranked second in the league. Add that in with their .290 wOBA against righties and a .380 SLG. I truly don’t have anything that scares me here. Nelson is a sneaky play tonight in my opinion.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Kris Bryant – CHC vs. MIA (Adam Conley) – $4,900 – Kris Bryant takes on Adam Conley tonight, who isn’t horrible against righties, but the way Bryant is swinging the bat lately, it’s hard to pass him up. At home against lefties, Bryant owns a .432 wOBA with a .650 SLG and a .383 ISO. Conley has allowed 10 home runs this season, and all of them off come of the bat of a right-hander, seven of those on the road. With Bryant being eligible at third base and the outfield, I think you’d should do your best to get him in your lineup.

Save Big by Drafting…

Colby Rasmus- HOU vs. TOR (Marcus Stroman) – $3,200 – If I’m being completely honest, I’m not thrilled with having Rasmus here. He’s a boom-or-bust type player. He certainly has a chance here tonight taking on Marcus Stroman, who is allowing a .348 wOBA to lefties with nine of his 15 home runs allowed. Rasmus certainly doesn’t have pretty numbers, but 5 of his 12 home runs have come at home against righties. Thankfully, a $3,200 hit on your salary isn’t that bad.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.