We have 10 games going tonight after a five game afternoon slate took place. I’ll get you ready for tonight, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

CHC (-250) vs MIL – Jon Lester – Jon Lester and the Cubs are the heavy favorites tonight as they take on the Brewers at Wrigley Field. This will be the second time that Lester has faced this Brewers club where he had a very underwhelming start. Lester pitched only four innings, allowing four runs on four hits with a 7:5 K:BB ratio for a whopping 9.6 fantasy points. Since then, Lester has been back to form on the mound, going 19 innings allowing four runs on 15 hits with a 21:3 K:BB ratio. As for tonight, the Brewers do hit left-handed pitchers extremely well, owning a .342 wOBA with a .358 OBP and of course, carry the extremely high 26.5 K%, which is the highest in the league against lefties.

Higheat Totals

NYM vs. ARZ – 9.5 runs – The Diamondbacks and Mets take the honor for the highest projected run total of the night as Jon Niese and Zack Godley take the mound. Niese is coming off a stint on the DL and brings his .395 wOBA on the road with him. Niese has been brutal in these road starts (and home if we’re just being blunt) where he’s allowing an absurd .433 wOBA to lefties and .382 against righties. Home runs have also certainly been a problem with 14 of his 23 coming on the road. The Diamondbacks aren’t a great offensive team, but they’ve crushed lefties all season.

Godley hasn’t exactly been the poster child for great pitching either, as his short time up in the majors hasn’t exactly been overly successful. Godley owns a .368 wOBA at home with righties crushing him to a .380 wOBA. The Mets don’t exactly excite me on a nightly basis, but tonight make them an intriguing stack, even with their lackluster numbers on the road.

Weather Concerns

BOS vs BAL (Camden Yards) – This game should start off without any issues; however, as we get near the middle of the game, thunderstorms could roll in. Keep an eye on this one.

MIA vs CIN (Great American Ballpark) – We could see a delay here to kick off the game, but should clear up soon after first pitch was scheduled.

MIL vs CHC (Wrigley Field) – Wrigley Field looks like it will be the trouble spot for tonight, as they have a chance of rain all throughout the night and not clearing until late. This is certainly one to monitor as we get closer to first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Progressive Field – CWS vs CLE – With Coors Field playing a game this afternoon, Progressive Field takes the honors as the most favored park on the night. As of today, Progressive favors all offensive categories except triples.
  • Globe Life Park – OAK vs TEX – Globe Life Park is number two on our list tonight as they Rangers host the Athletics. All offensive categories are favored here.
  • Wrigley Field – MIL  vs CHC – Wrigley Field is our worst ballpark for hitters tonight, as they host the Brewers. As of today, only triples have a favorable rating for hitters.
  • Citizens Bank Park – LAD vs PHI – Citizens Bank Park checks in as our second worst park for hitters tonight. Coming into this matchup, only home runs and triples have a favorable rating here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Kyle Gibson.888.330Sean Manaea.530.173
Mike Foltynewicz.883.271Scott Kazmir.601.200
Andrew Cashner.887.285Jon Lester.611.216

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Anibal Sanchez.913.323Carlos Carrasco.637.205
Jon Niese.885.299Jon Lester.656.223
Sean Manaea.843.292Yu Darvish.667.226

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Melky CabreraCarlos Carrasco213.23
Coco CrispYu Darvish242.75
Mark TrumboDavid Price252.36

  • All of our BvP stats for tonight come with a good amount of at-bats, so we can at least feel good about that. We start off with Cabrera taking on Carrasco. Cabrera has gone 9-21 with a double, two home runs, eight RBIs and three walks.
  • Next, we have Coco Crisp taking on Yu Darvish. I was surprised at how much Crisp has done against Darvish. Crisp is 8-24 with two triples, a home run, eight RBIs, and three walks.
  • Finally, we have Mark Trumbo doing some damage against David Price. Trumbo has gone 9-25 with two doubles, two home runs and seven RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Carlos Carrasco – CLE vs CHW – $8,700 – Overall, this slate isn’t loaded with pitching by any means. Darvish is certainly a nice name, and he’s starting to go deeper into games, but the lack of K upside has me iffy on him with his $11,400 price tag. Yes, he grabbed six before against Oakland, but I’m looking for more than six for his price. Carrasco is pitching at home, where he hasn’t been that great, but it was encouraging to see him have a solid outing last time out against another mediocre team in the Angels. Since the All-Star break, the White Sox own just a .303 wOBA with a .308 OBP and a 19.9 K%. Carrasco being so cheap certainly makes this decision a lot easier and I think he’s in line for another good start.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ vs. NYM (Jon Niese) – $5,500 – I wouldn’t care if Goldy was the most expensive player on this slate, pitchers included, he’ll be on my roster tonight. Goldy against a left-handed pitcher is one thing, Goldy against a pitcher named Jon Niese AT HOME!?!? Oh my, where do I send my condolences to the baseball that will feel Goldy’s wrath? At home against lefties, Goldschmidt owns a .526 wOBA with a .763 SLG and a .542 OBP.

Save Big by Drafting…

Maikel Franco – PHI vs. LAD (Scott Kazmir) – $3,300 – I’ll admit that Franco isn’t fantastic at home against lefties, but overall, he’s been solid. For the price that he’s at tonight, I think it’s worth the look. Overall against left-handed pitching, Franco owns a .345 wOBA with a .510 SLG and a .327 OBP. Franco has hit just six of his 21 home runs against lefties, but again, the overall numbers against lefties are solid. Facing Scott Kazmir tonight, who is always one pitch away from destruction, Franco is worth a peek.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.