Not only is it Friday, we also have 14 games that will be kicking off our weekend. I’ll get you set for this huge slate, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

WAS (-280) vs ATL– Stephen Strasburg – Tonight will be the third time Strasburg has faced the Braves this season. He’s pitched 13.2 innings against them, allowing three runs on 10 hits with an 11:5 K:BB ratio. His 7.2 K/9 in those two games is certainly a surprise, as it’s his lowest K/9 against any team that he’s faced at least twice this season. While that’s way below his season K/9 of 11, the Braves are a tough team to strike out, owning a 18.4 K% since the All-Star Break. Stras is a bit expensive at $12,400, so I find it a bit tough for him to return value, but the matchup is certainly in his favor.

Highest Totals

ARZ vs. BOS – 9.5 runs – – The Red Sox host the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight in a game that features Patrick Corbin and David Price. Corbin has done better on the road than he has at home, but that’s coming with an ERA of 4 and a .325 wOBA. The Red Sox as a team have hit left-handed pitching extremely well this season with a .345 wOBA to go with a .445 SLG and a .356 OBP. The Red Sox have certainly had their fair share of struggles at the plate lately, as over the past 14 days they have obtained only a .302 wOBA with a .315 OBP and a .379 SLG. At just $4,000, Corbin could be considered a GPP play tonight, but he’s certainly not safe.

David Price has been one of the most frustrating pitchers to roster this season, as prime matchups for him have been anything but that. Unfortunately, his price is still a bit high for my liking at $10,300 tonight. At Fenway this season, Price owns a 4.33 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP, averaging 20.6 FPPG, thanks in large part to his 10.1 K/9 at home. The Diamondbacks have been one of the best hitting clubs against left-handed pitching this season, owning a .346 wOBA with a .346 OBP and a .469 SLG. Fenway Park is extremely hitter-friendly, so I have no doubt the Diamondbacks can put some runs on the board tonight.

Weather Concerns

ARZ vs BOS (Fenway Park) – Boston will have a chance of thunderstorms all throughout the night, so keep an eye on this one

LAA vs CLE (Progressive Field) – Same forecast as Boston, as thunderstorms have a chance of rolling in at any time tonight. The probability of one gets higher as the night goes on, so this is certainly one to watch.

SDP vs NYM (Citi Field) – New York has an on and off chance of some storms here. The likelihood of one seems to be a bit low, but lots can change between now and first pitch.

TBR vs NYY (Yankee Stadium) – Same as the Mets game, as the hourly outlook for storms is on again, off again.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Progressive Field – LAA vs CLE – Progressive Field ranks as the number two ballpark overall for hitters and number one on our list tonight. As of tonight, every offensive category is favored here except triples. 
  • Fenway Park – ARZ vs BOS – With 9.5 projected runs at Fenway tonight, we could most certainly see a boost in the favorable park factor. Coming into tonight, Fenway has a favorable rating in every category except home runs and walks.
  • Oakland Coliseum – SEA vs OAK – No real difference between these two teams playing at the Coliseum tonight. As of this morning, Oakland only favored triples.
  • Dodger Stadium – PIT vs LAD – Dodger Stadium checks in as our second worst park for hitters tonight. Coming into this game, we don’t have a single offensive category favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Matt Cain.898.326Sean Manaea.512.176
Mike Foltynewicz.886.267Carlos Rodon.530.261
Kyle Gibson.870.325Stephen Strasburg.545.181

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Paul Clemens1.089.300Yu Darvish.610.213
Anibal Sanchez.880.314Stephen Strasburg.623.221
Carlos Rodon.878.313Carlos Carrasco.657.202

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Evan LongoriaCC Sabathia673.04
Freddie FreemanStephen Strasburg312.93
Ryan BraunHomer Bailey342.23

  • Just when you start to get down on BvP stats, you have a night like tonight and all is right in the world. First we start off with one of my favorites, Evan Longoria taking on CC Sabathia. Longoria is 26-67 with nine doubles, six home runs, 14 RBIs and 13 walks.
  • Next we have a BvP that always makes my head scratch, but is a great example of how good of a hitter Freddie Freeman is. Against Strasburg, Freeman is 12-31 with two doubles, three home runs, nine RBIs and six walks.
  • Finally we have Ryan Braun taking on Homer Bailey. Braun has gone 12-34 with four doubles, two home runs and seven RBIs.  


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jon Gray – COL vs PHI – $8,900 – Maybe this comes as a bit of a surprise, but I think the mid-tier priced pitchers are in a MUCH better position than the high priced guys tonight. I love this matchup for Gray, going up against one of the worst offenses in the league at a very friendly $8,900 price tag. Gray had a stretch last month where he faced really weak teams and his schedule was a cakewalk. It went Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, Braves; I mean you couldn’t ask for any better. In those four games, Gray averaged 22.05 FPPG with a 28:9 K:BB ratio. The Phillies game saw Gray go 6.1 allowing two runs on three hits with a 8:2 K:BB ratio. Aside from his last start against Miami, Gray really seems like he’s back on track, and I think he’ll have a fantastic start against these Phillies, a team he had 14 swings and misses against just a few weeks ago.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ vs. BOS (David Price) – $4,700 – I’m predicting Price is in for another disappointing start tonight against the Diamondbacks. This is a team that has dominated left-handed pitching all season, and tonight they play in the ever so friendly Fenway Park. Goldy has been a force against lefties all season, coming into this game with a .457 wOBA with a .812 SLG and 1.107 OPS. Goldy may not have a ton of home runs against lefties (5), but Fenway Park will certainly play to his strengths. At $4,700, I think he’s priced perfectly for this matchup and his potential.

Save Big by Drafting…

Chase Utley – LAD vs. PIT (Ivan Nova) – $3,500 – I was having some struggles figuring out who should fall in this spot. I ended up landing on Chase Utley. He faces Ivan Nova, who is allowing a .355 wOBA to left handed batters this season with a .516 SLG. Utley is a decent under the radar type play tonight.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.