Yesterday was quite a strange slate. I think overall it went the complete opposite of what myself and many others expected. It isn’t the first time thats happened and it won’t be the last. That’s baseball folks. The best we can do now is move on and look to perform better during tonight’s slate. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
NYM (-210) vs. PHI – Bartolo Colon – The man they call “Big Sexy” gets the nod as the favorite pitcher on the night slate. Somehow, someway, Colon is still pitching well as he gets closer to 43 years old. Colon pitched well against the Phillies last season, which could be a good indication as to why he’s such a big favorite tonight. In five starts against the Phils last season, Colon pitched 32 innings allowing 10 runs on 32 hits with a 32:5 K:BB ratio. He’s a huge value on the slate tonight as he’ll only run you $6,100.
COL (-155) vs. SDP – Jorge De La Rosa – Well, this is quite the pairing of pitchers for favorites on the slate, isn’t it? We have Colon and now De La Rosa. I was a little surprised by this, as De La Rosa doesn’t pitch as well at home as he does on the road. I mean, when Coors Field is your home field, you usually don’t have much success to look forward to. De La Rosa also was lit up by the Padres last season, which further questions why he’s favored here. In four starts last season, he pitched 17 innings, allowing 18 runs (15 earned) with a 23:10 K:BB ratio. I think this may be one of those times where we go against the favorite.
COL vs. SD – 10.5 runs – Get ready for a slew of Coors Field high run totals! Coors Field is without a doubt the best stadium for hitters. With the great hitting conditions comes the high run totals. 10.5 runs actually feels a bit low, especially with who we have going on the mound with De La Rosa for the Rockies and Drew Pomeranz for the Padres. As always, this will be a heavily targeted game and one that is usually smart to have some exposure to.
HOU vs. MIL – 9 runs – The immediate appeal here is a team going against Wily Peralta. In his first start this season, he performed like, well, Wily Peralta. He went four innings, giving up five runs (four earned) on six hits with a 2:2 K:BB ratio against the San Francisco Giants. Even with the potential to rack up some strikeouts against the Astros, Peralta is essentially impossible to trust in any format. Doug Fister goes for the Astros in his first start for this team. Fister had a very uncharacteristic 2015 and looks to bounce back with his new team. He’s also a huge value on the night, running you only $5,800.
1) TBR vs. BAL (Camden Yards) -This game may actually feature some snow in the first hour or so of play. After that point though, it should be clear enough to play. With the snow, we have some cold weather to deal with as temperatures will hover in the mid 20’s. Awesome baseball weather, right?
2) PHI vs. NYM (Citi Field) – The Phillies and Mets will feature a chance of rain in the early going. Like the Orioles game, this should clear up after the first hour, and they should be good to go. This game will feature a fairly strong wind blowing in from right field around 19-21 mph.
3) TEX vs. LAA (Angel Stadium) – Only a chance of rain in this one, but it lasts the entire night. Just annoying enough to potentially disrupt this game once or even twice, depending on how heavy it gets. Watch this one closely.
Park factors are rated by a 1.000 scale. If a category receives a rating of 1.000 or above, it favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 favors the pitchers.
- Coors Field – SD vs. COL – The ultimate hitters park, Coors Field will be ranked at the top for the next few days. It has a favorable rating for hitters in every offensive category. Coors Field even has the highest rating I’ve seen for triples, which came in at 2.000. No other category even comes close.
- Camden Yards – TBR vs. BAL – Camden Yards is another one that will be on the list quite frequently. With plus ratings for hitters in runs, home runs and singles, this is always a great park to target hitters.
- Angel Stadium of Anaheim – TEX vs. LAA – Angel Stadium was ranked one of the worst park for hitters in 2015. The only offensive category it favored hitters in was walks. I mean, really, big deal.
- Citi Field – PHI vs. NYM – Citi Field doesn’t have a single offensive category that favored hitters in 2015. The only categories that came close were singles and walks.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||AVG||OPS||Best vs. LHB||AVG||OPS|
|Mike Wright||0.322||0.919||Rich Hill||0.158||0.358|
|Julio Teheran||0.3||0.893||Drew Pomeranz||0.152||0.438|
|Wily Peralta||0.309||0.889||Drew Smyly||0.157||0.507|
- Mike Wright ends up being the worst overall pitcher against LHB, even though his sample size was a bit smaller than the others. Wright started in nine games last season while pitching in 12 overall. His K:BB ratio was one of the worst last season, sitting at 26:18.
- Quite the list for the three best against lefties isn’t it? Rich Hill has fantastic numbers, as those came with four games started. I won’t include a pitcher in these stats if they have less than three. For what it’s worth though, Hill was truly fantastic in that span, owning a 36:5 K:BB ratio in 29 innings.
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||AVG||OPS||Best vs. RHB||AVG||OPS|
|Doug Fister||0.327||0.86||Rich Hill||0.138||0.432|
|Mike Wright||0.258||0.855||Zack Greinke||0.182||0.482|
|Wily Peralta||0.295||0.796||Kyle Hendricks||0.225||0.58|
- Doug Fister owns some extreme splits when it comes to facing right-handed batters and left-handed batters in 2015. Aside from what he’s shown against righties, last season against lefties he owned a .738 OPS with a .265 average allowed. His K upside is always capped, however, sitting at 5.5 from last season.
- Greinke and Hendricks face off against each other tonight, which could certainly spell trouble for opposing right handed batters. Both pitchers are very similar with their K/9 abilities as well. Hendricks owned an 8.4 and Greinke racked up an 8.1.
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Matt Kemp||Jorge De La Rosa||48||3.16|
|Lorenzo Cain||Tommy Milone||23||1.91|
|Miguel Montero||Zack Greinke||26||1.88|
- It’s pretty evident that we don’t have a stellar group of guys in our BvP section. Montero is a sneaky one, and I would guess that it’s not very well known that Montero has hit Greinke well.
- The numbers of Kemp against Jorge De La Rosa are insane. In his career, Kemp is 22-48 with six doubles, a triple, five home runs, 18 RBIs, and four walks. I guess that 1.428 OPS is good as well.
Pitcher to Build Around
Carlos Martinez – STL vs. ATL – $10,000 – We have another slate of games where finding a solid pitching option is going to be tough overall. We may have to go with some match ups that are a bit less than ideal. I wouldn’t say Martinez against the Braves isn’t ideal, but the K upside is usually capped when facing the Braves. Last season, the Braves ended 2015 as the toughest team to strikeout. Martinez only faced the Braves once last season and pitched eight innings, allowing no runs on six hits, while striking out six. His price tag is high, which also makes this a bit of a tough pick, but truly, this is a tough slate to find good value on. Bartolo Colon and Doug Fister are potential candidates for value on this slate if you don’t want to go the route of Martinez.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Matt Kemp – SD vs. COL (Jorge De La Rosa) – $5,200 – I know we have some people in this world that don’t believe in BvP. That’s fine, (not really) but it’s hard to ignore how well Kemp performs against De La Rosa. As shown above, his numbers are truly through the roof. If we want to take it a step further, over his career, Kemp has performed extremely well at Coors Field. He owns an overall .335 average going 94-281 with 43 extra base hits, 17 of them being home runs. His salary is inflated because of playing in Coors, but I think he will be well worth the high price tag.
Save Big by Drafting…
Cesar Hernandez vs. NYM (Bartolo Colon) – $3,100 – Get used to this guys, Hernandez is going to be in this section many more times this season. He’s ALWAYS underpriced and ALWAYS produces. Hernandez doesn’t own a lot of power at all, but he has the ability to get on base, and when that happens, he’s always a threat to steal. He’s been batting leadoff which always is a boost to his value and allows him to nab an early base. With 19 steals on the 2015 season and the low ownership he should have, I will always love Hernandez for a sneaky pick.
Stack Em Up
HOU vs. MIL (Wily Peralta) – An Astros stack is one that won’t be hard to fill price wise, and still leaves you room to efficiently fill out the rest of your lineup. Even in Miller Park, I think this is a stack that can produce some big numbers. Peralta struggled almost equally against lefties and righties last season. He gave up 14 home runs on the season with 12 of those coming at home. The Astros are an extreme boom or bust team, but I can’t think of a better pitcher to go boom against then Peralta. Another stack I like tonight that I think will go under the radar is Seattle, just don’t tell anyone.