WATCH: MLB IN 90 SECONDS – J.T. REALMUTO
Tuesday night brings us a 10-game slate that includes a game at Coors Field. With an underwhelming group of pitchers to choose from, this will certainly make for an interesting night. Let’s jump into all the information, and, as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers – J.A. Happ ($8,000) – J.A. Happ and the Blue Jays are the heavy favorites on this 10-game slate. This Brewers lineup is notorious for its strikeout ability as we have five players who have a K% of at least 25% against lefties. Happ isn’t a big strikeout guy, owning a 7.2 K/9 last season, but he did have four games in 2016 of at least nine strikeouts. With his price tag saddled at just $8,000, I think he’s a worthy pitcher to take on a slate that doesn’t have much to offer. As of this afternoon, the Brewers had an implied run total of 3.8 runs.
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies – 12 projected runs – I believe this is the highest run total of the season thus far with 12 projected runs in this game. Jered Weaver will take the mound for the Padres while Antonio Senzatala will be making just his second start in the majors. The Rockies have a massive implied run total of seven as of this afternoon. Jered Weaver is not an effective pitcher by any means, and you can’t help but think he’s going to get lit up tonight.
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox – 9 projected runs – Another projected high scoring game on this slate will feature Dylan Bundy for the Orioles taking on Drew Pomeranz. This is a perfect matchup featuring two powerful offenses going up against two highly volatile pitchers. Bundy was crushed on the road last season, allowing a .372 wOBA with a .511 SLG and a .374 OBP. As for Pomeranz, he ended with a .340 wOBA with a .476 SLG and a .323 OBP since he was traded to the American League on the Red Sox. Both of these teams are currently tabbed for 4.5 runs each.
1) Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (PNC Park) – This game will feature a chance of thunderstorms all throughout the night with a window of clearing late. It looks as if, at worst, they could see a delay.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark, favors pitchers.
- Coors Field – San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies – The mother of all ballparks, Coors Field is and will always be the number ballpark for hitters. Get used to seeing this here until they go back on the road.
- Fenway Park – Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox – Fenway Park has always been friendly to hitters, and 2016 was no exception. All offensive categories were favored here except for walks.
- Marlins Park – Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins – Marlins Park checks in as our most unfavorable park for hitters tonight. Last season, we didn’t have one single category favor hitters.
- Citizens Bank Park – New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies – The Mets and Phillies play at the second ballpark that doesn’t exactly favor hitters. Citizen Bank Park only had a favorable rating in home runs last season.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Wily Peralta||.880||.307||Cole Hamels||.605||.208|
|Matt Harvey||.864||.321||Gio Gonzalez||.633||.241|
|Ariel Miranda||.859||.310||Drew Pomeranz||.643||.240|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Jered Weaver||.866||.296||Jeff Samardzija||.639||.225|
|Wily Peralta||.832||.304||Drew Pomeranz||.663||.209|
|Robbie Ray||.797||.272||Bartolo Colon||.664||.267|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Ryan Braun||J.A. Happ||28||2.71|
|Dexter Fowler||Gio Gonzalez||20||2.55|
|J.T. Realmuto||Bartolo Colon||21||2.19|
*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)
Pitcher to Build Around
Jameson Taillon – PIT vs. CIN – $8,400 – I don’t think we have a single pitcher on this slate tonight that could be considered a “must-play.” With that being said, I think Taillon is the guy I’ll be going for. He had an impressive 2016 and followed it up with an impressive start against the Red Sox this season. Pitching at PNC Park was a huge benefit for him as he owned a .276 wOBA with a .373 SLG and a .267 OBP.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
George Springer – HOU vs. SEA – $4,100 – Springer is hardly an expensive hitter tonight, but I think he’s well suited in this section. He’s been a beast against left-handed pitching, and even though he’s in an unfavorable park tonight, he doesn’t exactly play in one to begin with. In 2016 home games against lefties Springer ended up with a .376 wOBA with a .506 SLG and a .373 OBP.
Save Big by Drafting…
Tony Wolters – COL vs. SD – $3,100 – I think it’s pretty obvious this will be a popular game. However, if you’re looking to get some cheap exposure here, Wolters could be the way to go. At just $3,100, he feels too cheap for a player hitting at Coors Field. Last season, Jered Weaver allowed a .365 wOBA to lefties with a .502 SLG. Wolters doesn’t possess much power, but you can’t beat the price for a team projected to score seven runs.
Stack Em Up
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles (Dylan Bundy) – With so much attention focused on the Rockies game, this is a great opportunity to pounce on some stacks that could go overlooked. The Red Sox fit that bill in my opinion for tonight. As I mentioned, Bundy was rocked on the road last season with a .372 wOBA and a .511 SLG. The Red Sox were the best hitting home team in the majors last season, and with the majority of their lineup back in 2017, they should be able to continue that tonight.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.