Tuesday’s showdown contests feature a choice between three games: Nationals at Orioles (7:05 p.m. ET), Giants at Rockies (8:40 p.m. ET) and Mariners at Athletics (10:07 p.m. ET). This article will focus on the late game. The A’s (-186) are the favorites over the Mariners (+160) on DraftKings Sportsbook in a game that has an over/under of 9.5 runs.
Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.
FIVE BETTING TRENDS
— The Athletics have led after three innings in each of their past four night games at Oakland Coliseum against AL West opponents.
— Each of the Athletics’ past four night games against AL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
— The Mariners have lost the first inning in each of their past three Tuesday games.
— The Mariners have lost each of their past seven road games.
— The inning one OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the past three games between the Mariners and Athletics.
Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Tuesday’s pitching matchup features two pitchers who miss bats at below-average levels but a favorable pitching environment at Oakland gives high contact pitchers a softer landing. For the Oakland Athletics, right-handed pitcher Daniel Mengden ($9,400) takes the hill. Mengden has struck out 18% of batters, below the league average SP strikeout rate of about 22%. Just 6.5% of Mengden’s total pitches have been swings and misses, also an unappealing rate, sitting well below the league average of about 10.6% for SP. Mengden’s lack of strikeouts are fueled by a below-average ability to get batters to chase pitches outside of the strike zone combined with a below-average ability to get swings and misses inside the strike zone. The lack of bat-missing caps his fantasy value. Some of Mengden’s other key peripheral statistics are more mediocre. Mengden has allowed an expected wOBA of .328 based on the exit velocities and angles of his batted balls, a tick worse than the league average of about .322. Mengden’s 4.15 FIP is better than average on the back of a good home run rate, which has contributed to Mengden holding batters to an isolated power of just .139, which indicates that he has been solid at preventing extra-base hits.
Left-handed pitcher Marco Gonzales ($9,600) takes the mound for the Seattle Mariners. Like Mengden, Gonzales sports a low strikeout rate, striking out just 17% of batters. Like Mengden, Gonzales has limited home runs and extra-base hits, posting a better-than-average .157 isolated power allowed to batters with a 4.08 FIP, which has contributed to a 4.24 ERA, a slightly better than average mark. Gonzales’ contact quality allowed also has been mediocre, allowing batters to produce an expected wOBA of .319 based on the exit velocities and angles of their batted balls, which is around league average. Of note, Gonzales and Mengden each pitched in the Mariners-A’s series in their most recent starts. Mariners batters have produced plus contact quality off Mengden in two starts this season, while Gonzales has been excellent at limiting strong contact in three previous games vs. the A’s this season, holding A’s batters to an expected wOBA of just .295 over 85 plate appearances. Because both Mengden and Gonzales have been below average at generating strikeouts, fantasy owners can expect a good chance for the ball to be put into play on both sides. Gonzales has struck out just 15% of the 85 Athletics’ batters he has faced this season, while Mengden struck out just 14% of the 43 Mariners batters he has faced this season.
Gonzales has had success limiting contact quality against the A’s this season, but Oakland has been one of the six best hitting teams against lefties and owns a minuscule 17.5% strikeout rate vs. LHPs, the second lowest in the league. The low strikeouts and top-six production makes the Athletics a potential problem despite Gonzales’ success in three previous starts vs. Oakland. Seattle’s offense has been more mediocre vs. RHPs and has struck out in an elevated 25% of its plate appearances vs. RHPs, seventh highest, although that hasn’t helped Mengden miss more bats in his two starts vs. the Mariners this season.
For Mariners’ batters, 1B Daniel Vogelbach ($7,600) has been the team’s best hitter against right-handed pitchers. Vogelbach’s OPS is a shade under 1.000 vs. righties, and he has produced a big isolated power of .310 vs. RHPs on the back of 19 home runs in just 216 at-bats. In a small sample of five PAs against Mengden this year, Vogelbach has been on base three times, walking twice while hitting a rocket line drive single that left his bat at a strong 103 mph. Vogelbach has been batting cleanup vs. RHPs, giving him a strong lineup slot in addition to his strong production vs. righties and is a highly appealing fantasy hitter to build lineups around. SS J.P Crawford ($7,000) also has had strong success against righties this season both in terms of overall production and power output. Crawford’s .226 isolated power vs. RHPs is plus, and he has been batting second in the order, giving him a premium lineup slot for fantasy production.
On the A’s side, multiple batters have made plus contact quality off LHPs by exit velocity plus batted ball angle this season. Despite batting left-handed, Matt Olson ($9,200) leads the way in both contact quality and power output by isolated power vs. lefties and has hit seven dingers in just 70 at-bats off LHPs this season. Olson’s career numbers vs. LHPs are also better than average. After Olson, Matt Chapman ($10,200), Khris Davis ($6,600) and Ramon Laureano ($9,800) have produced solid contact quality numbers against LHPs, and Olson, Chapman and Davis all have produced plus contact quality in their matchups directly against Gonzales this season. SS Marcus Semien ($8,600) is also a fantasy option given his leadoff slot in the batting order.
Vogelbach’s ($11,400 CP) power-hitting upside against RHPs gives him appeal as the Captain’s Pick, and he’s an affordable play as the Captain’s Pick as the 11th highest priced player in this game.
Despite Gonzales’ success in three previous games vs. the A’s this season, Oakland has been productive against lefties and has a far better run differential, outscoring opponents by 81 runs, sixth best, with Seattle is being outscored by 94 runs by opponents, third worst. The A’s will be in position to get to Gonzales this time around, and the Mariners have had one of the game’s worst bullpens, ranking fourth worst by both FIP (5.09) and ERA (5.06).
Final score: A’s 6, Mariners 4
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