MLB-Cheat-Sheet

Wednesday features a packed 10-game slate with some really appealing pitching options to choose from. Headlined by Gerrit Cole, we have four pitchers with price tags over $10,000, making them premium options. Without any major weather concerns, let’s take a look at all the information for tonight. As always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.


Game Notes

Largest Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Gerrit Cole, $12,000, HOU (-375) vs. CWS (+290) — Did you have trouble paying up for Justin Verlander last night when he was $11,300? Wait until you try rostering Cole at $12K! He and the Astros are massive favorites once again against the White Sox in Houston. Verlander cruised through eight innings last night, allowing just a solo shot to Jose Abreu ($3,800) in the seventh inning, the first and only hit he allowed. Cole is in just as good of a spot and his strikeout upside is even greater than Verlander. Cole has a ridiculous 38.3 K% against righties this season, plus the White Sox have a 25.5 K% against RHPs, the fourth highest in the league. If you can’t pay up for Cole, it’s understandable but I think a genuine effort should be made.

Highest Total

NYY (-245) vs. BAL (+210) 10.5 runs — I could write “Dan Straily ($4,800) is pitching tonight” and everyone would know the Yankees game has the highest implied run total. Straily has been a complete disaster in an Orioles uniform and has a -2.6 DKFP average through four starts at home. Through 18 1/3 innings, Straily has allowed 24 runs on 33 hits, including NINE home runs at Camden Yards. With this in mind, the Yankees sport a 6.5 team total on DraftKings Sportsbook. It’s such a high total but I’d have no problem taking the over. In games in which Straily has pitched, opposing teams have averaged 8.5 runs. Need I say more?

Weather Concerns

COL @ PIT (PNC Park) – We could see some rain roll through later in the evening but it doesn’t look like anything overly concerning. Unless something changes during the day, it should be safe to target this game normally.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBwOBAxFIPBest vs. LHBwOBAxFIP
Ivan Nova.4355.07Cole Hamels.2194.27
Matt Harvey.3964.84Gerrit Cole.2692.43
Dan Straily.3847.45Max Fried.2723.29

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBwOBAxFIPBest vs. RHBwOBAxFIP
Dan Straily.4787.00Jeff Samardzija.2535.13
Ivan Nova.3654.50Max Scherzer.2671.84
Aaron Sanchez.3585.09Martin Perez.2754.22

Top Hard-Hit%

This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.

NameTeamSalaryHard-Hit%
Chad WallachMIA$300077.8%
C.J. CronMIN$470066.7%
Josh BellPIT$550066.7%
Brandon BeltSF$410066.7%
Carlos GomezNYM$330066.7%

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. CWS, $12,000 — I mean, I don’t see how it’s not Cole, right? We went over his start tonight in further detail earlier in the article, so scroll back up to read that. If you take him, pairing him with someone cheap so you can efficiently fill out your roster will be crucial. Cole Irvin ($6,800) against the Cubs allows you an average of $3,900 for batters. It’s not the best average per hitter but you can make it work on a 10-game slate. I think catcher is a position you can go down at and consider the likes of Tyler Flowers ($3,500) and Austin Romine ($3,600).

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Michael Brantley, HOU vs. CWS, $5,200 — Not only is Cole in a good position tonight but the offense is as well against Ivan Nova ($4,400). It’s not confirmed but with the way Nova has been pitching, one has to wonder if he’s actually a ploy by the other team to earn them an easy win. Lefties have tagged him with a .435 wOBA, a 5.07 xFIP and 5-of-10 home runs allowed. With the way Brantley is hitting, averaging 8.1 DKFP over his last 10 games, this should be a big spot for him and the Astros offense as a whole.

Save Big by Drafting…

Max Kepler, MIN vs. LAA, $4,100 — This just feels too cheap for Kepler, who has reached as high as $4,800 on the season. He draws a matchup against Matt Harvey ($5,500), who we love to pick on with lefties. Harvey has a .396 wOBA, 4.84 xFIP and 4-of-7 home runs against lefties. The Twins offense continues to hit their team total and then some almost on a nightly basis and I don’t imagine that trend will stop in a matchup like this one.

Stack Em Up

MIN vs. LAA (Matt Harvey) – – Same as last night, the Twins are one of the ways to go when it comes to stacking. With the Astros and Yankees in such good matchups, the Twins could go a bit overlooked. They currently have a 4.5 team total, which doesn’t exactly pop out. On the road, the Twins average 6.6 runs per game, which is the highest total in the league. At home, Harvey has a .392 wOBA and 4.89 xFIP.


Favorite Prop Bet

Astros to score first and win (+102)

The fact that you’re getting plus-money on this seems absolutely crazy. With Cole being so heavily favored and the Astros drawing a light matchup against Nova, this is a really solid bet with good odds to boot. Let’s not forget, Cole is currently a -375 favorite, which is one of the highest odds I’ve seen this season. Essentially, getting the Astros’ money line with the only caveat being that the ‘Stros have to score first for plus money feels like a no-brainer.

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