Almost every team is in action tonight as Friday features a really solid 14-game slate. Weather is a non-factor for a change and the pitching selection boasts some big names in really enticing matchups. Let’s jump into all the information you’ll need and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chris Sale, $12,000, BOS (-385) vs. TOR (+320) — I’m fairly positive this is the biggest favorite I’ve seen this season. The Red Sox, who’ll be sending Sale to the mound, are massive favorites at home against the Blue Jays. In the midst of Sale having a really rough start of the season, this Blue Jays team was able to get to him, tagging him for four runs on seven hits through six innings. This helped contribute to a .358 wOBA and a 4.44 xFIP during the month of April. Since the calendar turned to May, it’s been back to being Chris Sale. This month especially has been a dominant one, as he’s posted a .165 wOBA with a 1.59 xFIP with a ridiculous K% of 41%. With the Blue Jays owning the eighth highest K% against lefties in the league, this is going to be a very popular spot for Sale.
Highest TotalCHW (+133) vs. TEX (-152) 11.5 runs — Simply a massive run total for a game that isn’t taking place at Coors Field. The Rangers are big favorites here and own an implied team total of 6.5 runs against Reynaldo Lopez ($5,800). He’s been atrocious on the road and through 29 2/3 innings has a .401 wOBA, a 5.85 xFIP and six of his 19 home runs allowed. When it comes to hitting righties at home, the Rangers rank amongst the best in the league with a .341 wOBA and a .214 ISO. With Lopez pitching poorly to both sides of the plate, you can’t really go wrong with a stack of any kind against him. Lefties have hit him slightly harder than righties, which bodes well for a Rangers lineup that ran out six players that can hit from that side.
Weather ConcernsLAA @ STL (Busch Stadium) – Looks like a really ugly night of weather in St. Louis. Late start is very likely with the potential to be postponed.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Reynaldo Lopez, .386, 6.57,
Taylor Clarke, .380, 6.42,
Aaron Nola, .379, 4.12,
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Sonny Gray, .218, 2.58
Walker Buehler, .225, 3.53
Chase Anderson, .240, 4.44
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Michael Wacha, .422, 4.92,
Chase Anderson, .416, 4.63,
Ariel Jurado, .385, 3.62,
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Brad Peacock, .213, 3.54
Trevor Bauer, .245, 3.76
Walker Buehler, .263, 3.36
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Kyle Garlick, LAD, $3,000, 66.7%
Jose Martinez, STL, $3,600, 66.7%
Max Kepler, MIN, $5,000, 66.7%
Austin Hedges, SDP, $2,700, 66.7%
Cesar Hernandez, PHI, $3,700, 64.7%
Pitcher to Build AroundChris Sale, BOS vs. TOR, $12,000 — If you’re fading Sale because of his salary, I totally understand. It’s tough to pay up for a $12,000 priced pitched when you realized that 30 hitters are priced at $5,000 or above. However, if you CAN afford him, it’s hard to fade a guy who is striking out 41% of the hitters he’s faced through 22 innings in the month of June. Especially when you consider that the Blue Jays have one of the highest K% in the league against lefties, this would be a really tough fade.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForMax Kepler, MIN vs. KC, $5,000 — Kepler is back on a hot streak and is averaging 12.8 DKFP over his last 10 games. In that span, he has four home runs, three doubles and 10 RBI over 40 at-bats. Tonight he’ll face Jakob Junis ($6,300), who is allowing a .370 wOBA with a 4.44 xFIP and seven of his 15 home runs allowed against lefties. Kepler has done some of his best hitting on the road against righties and has a .386 wOBA with a .301 ISO with eight of his 19 home runs.
Save Big by Drafting…Ronald Guzman, TEX vs. CWS, $3,700 — One of the cheaper ways to get exposure to the Rangers would be with Guzman. While he’s not usually talked about, he has some surprising power against righties, sporting a .248 ISO with five of his six home runs against them. As I mentioned, Lopez has been absolutely atrocious against lefties, making Guzman a cheap option at first base to consider.
Stack Em UpARI vs SF (Jeff Samardzija) — Targeting Samardzija ($6,900) on the road is always the best Samardzija to go against. This season away from Oracle Park, Samardzija sports a .324 wOBA with a 5.36 xFIP and eight of his 12 home runs allowed. Lefties have tagged him the hardest, giving him a .335 wOBA and a 5.72 xFIP. On top of that, the usually reliable Giants bullpen has been struggling as of late, posting a 4.71 xFIP and a 1.8 HR/9 over the past week.
Favorite Prop Bet
Los Angeles Angels OVER 4.5 runs (-124)Another good night of offense for the Angels last night, as they posted five runs on 12 hits against the Blue Jays. Tonight they’re once again in a good spot do the same against Michael Wacha. Through 22 innings at Busch Stadium, Wacha has a .405 wOBA with a 5.16 xFIP with five of his 14 home runs allowed. On the year, the Angels are now averaging just over five runs per game on the road and 6.3 over their last three games.
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