MLB-Cheat-Sheet

Thursday is usually a quiet day for night baseball but we have a large nine-game slate ahead, starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Pitching is very good at the top but quickly drops off after that, making this a likely offense-heavy slate. Let’s get into all the information you’ll need and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Largest Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

David Price, $9,700, BOS (-225) vs. TEX (+195) — The Red Sox are massive favorites as they wrap up their series against the Rangers this evening. Price quietly is putting together an excellent season for the Red Sox, particularly when he’s pitching at Fenway Park. Through 25 innings, Price has compiled a .212 wOBA with a 3.01 xFIP and only one of his seven home runs allowed. The Rangers have not been a good team against lefties and sport a .302 wOBA (24th) with a .162 ISO (22nd) and a 24.5 K% (ninth). This feels like an excellent spot to use Price, and he doesn’t feel overly expensive seeing as we have three other pitchers priced above him.

Highest Total

SD (+138) at COL (-157) 11.5 runs — The Padres head to Coors Field for a four-game series that will feature Matt Strahm ($9,200), who is expected to be activated off the injured list ,and Jon Gray ($8,300). Strahm is REALLY expensive for a lefty pitching at Coors Field, figuring the Rockies have a team .367 wOBA with a .210 ISO within the split. Making his first start since June 2, I can’t imagine Strahm is in this game very long to begin with, and he’ll turn it over to a solid Padres bullpen, which has a 3.13 xFIP over the past week. To be honest, I’m not crazy about this game and think it has the potential to go under its 11.5 total.

Weather Concerns

TOR at BAL (Camden Yards) — It looks as if this game could start in a delay but should play once it concludes. I would target this game normally as long as nothing changes later this afternoon.

TEX at BOS (Fenway Park) — Gross night of baseball ahead as some rain will move in but nothing that should cause many issues. It’s going to be chilly with temperatures in the low-50s.

STL at NYM (Citi Field) — There’s a potential of a delay during the late innings of this game. As of this morning, starting pitchers should be safe, but it would be worth checking later on.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Ivan Nova, .407, 4.73,
Erick Fedde, .346, 3.55
Jack Flaherty, .345, 5.04

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
David Price, .141, 2.19
Zack Greinke, .221, 2.64
Matthew Boyd, .254, 2.53

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Gabriel Ynoa, .382, 4.19
Adrian Sampson, .359, 5.21
Ivan Nova, .357, 4.51

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jacob deGrom, .254, 2.66
Erick Fedde, .262, 5.51
Marcus Stroman, .265, 3.97

Top Hard-Hit%

This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.

Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Logan Forsythe, TEX, $3800, 100%
Justin Turner, LAD, $4100, 75%
Paul Goldschmidt, STL, $3600, 72.7%
Luke Maile, TOR, $2600, 71.4%
Max Muncy, LAD, $4700, 69.2%


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Matthew Boyd, DET at KC, $10,700 — He’s the most expensive pitcher on this slate, but it’s hard to fade him in a favorable matchup against the Royals. They’re struggling against lefties and enter this game with a .299 wOBA, a .150 ISO and a K% of 24, which is the 10th highest in the league. Boyd also has been extremely effective on the road, where he has a .255 wOBA and a 2.71 xFIP. Truly, there isn’t much to hate about this start for Boyd, so paying up for him makes a lot of sense.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Aaron Hicks, NYY at CWS, $4,800 — Hicks is rolling right now and has posted at least 14 DKFP in four of his eight games in the month of June. He draws an extremely favorable matchup against Ivan Nova ($4,400), who against lefties has a .407 wOBA with a 4.33 xFIP and seven of his 13 home runs allowed. Despite missing a good chunk of the season thus far, Hicks has a .415 wOBA and a .310 ISO against righties on the road with three of his four home runs.

Save Big by Drafting…

Albert Pujols, LAA at TB, $4,000 — At the age of 39, I didn’t think I’d be playing Pujols as much as I have this season. He’s not an everyday option, but when he’s facing lefties, he’s produced. On the road against lefties, Pujols has an impressive .359 wOBA with a .395 ISO and five of his 11 home runs. He’ll be taking on Ryan Yarbrough ($6,800), who at home against righties has a .388 wOBA with a 5.24 xFIP and two of his four home runs allowed.

Stack Em Up

TB vs. LAA (Tyler Skaggs) — Skaggs has struggled on the road this season and travels to Tropicana Park for this start against the Rays. Sure, this isn’t exactly a hitter-friendly ballpark, but the Rays have hit well here against righties. On the road, Skaggs has a .358 wOBA with a 4.73 xFIP and all eight of his home runs allowed. With so much focus likely on Coors Field, I think the Rays are in a good position to go off at potential low ownership.


Favorite Prop Bet

SD at COL UNDER 11.5 runs (-118)

I touched on this earlier, but I do think this has a legitimate chance of going under. Yes, the Rockies could rough up Strahm, but after that, the Padres have a good bullpen behind him. Gray has been nothing special for the Rockies, but you could say that for the Padres offense against righties. With all this in mind, 12 runs seem like a lot in this game.


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