Another huge fantasy baseball slate for tonight as 14-games will be played starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Unlike yesterday, pitching is going to be a really tough place to navigate with a number of options priced under $8,000. Let’s jump into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine@SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Walker Buehler, $10,900, LAD (-250) vs. ARI (+220) — Buehler and the Dodgers are huge favorites tonight as they host the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. This will be the third time Buehler faces this club, having gone a combined 11 innings allowing six runs on seven hits with 11 strikeouts. Buehler is fresh off his worst start of the season but it came at Coors Field, where he was rocked for seven runs on 13 hits through 5 2/3 innings.
Personally, I’m a bit on the fence with Buehler in this spot. While he’s been great at home with a .221 wOBA and a 3.20 xFIP, the D-Backs are not a team you can easily write off. They’ve been an excellent team on the road with a .349 wOBA and .214 ISO, and they don’t supply a ton of strikeout upside. Buehler could end up being popular by default with a lackluster batch of pitching to choose from but I’ll find myself digging a bit deeper on this slate for another option.
Highest TotalHOU (-134) vs. COL (+118) 13.5 runs — These teams went to town last night combining for 17 runs, which blew their 13 run projection out of the water. Now they generate a 13.5 run total with the Astros getting the nod here with a team total of 7.5!
This is the second time in recent memory we’ve seen a total this large and it comes against Peter Lambert ($5,300), who will be starting for the Rockies. It’s a short sample size but Lambert has been wrecked at Coors Field thus far. Through 12 2/3 innings, Lambert has a .478 wOBA with a 5.51 xFIP and six of the seven home runs he’s allowed. Lefties have been having a field day against him overall, tagging him with a .469 wOBA and 4.59 xFIP.
It’s also worth mentioning Wade Miley ($7,200) will be on the mound for the Astros. He’s a lefty, so you know attention will be given to the Rockies bats even more so. At home against lefties, the Rockies are currently sporting a .398 wOBA with a .231 ISO. While Miley has been serviceable as of late, this is not a spot you’re looking for some of that magic again.
Weather ConcernsNo weather concerns for tonight!
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Peter Lambert, .469, 4.59
Cal Quantrill, .410, 5.56
Adam Wainwright, .405, 5.04
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Wade Miley, .230, 3.05
Sonny Gray, .243, 2.90
John Means, .245, 3.84
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Nick Pivetta, .405, 4.31
Jhoulys Chacin, .356, 4.83
Chris Archer, .353, 4.35
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Tanner Anderson, .174, 3.09
Cal Quantrill, .214, 2.99
Walker Buehler, .269, 3.23
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Christian Yelich, MIL, $5700, 76.5%
Hunter Dozier, KC, $4400, 75%
David Peralta, ARI, $3700, 70.6%
Scott Kingery, PHI, $4600, 70.6%
Yasmani Grandal, MIL, $4600, 69.2%
Pitcher to Build AroundKyle Gibson, MIN vs. OAK, $9,000 — I think this is a really tough slate for pitching. When you look at the top priced guys, at least for me, no one sticks out as a must-play. Chris Sale ($11,800) is the most expensive guy but do you feel good about paying that much for him? The Blue Jays have given him issues twice already this season and while he has 11 strikeouts through nine innings against them, he’s also allowed eight runs on 14 hits. For me, Gibson seems like the option to turn to against an Athletics team at home. I don’t feel great about it but they do sport just a .304 wOBA and a .174 ISO against righties at home this season. I’ll take a shot with Gibson but I won’t be enjoying it (unless he does well).
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForTrevor Story, COL vs. HOU, $4,500 — This salary is laughable for Story, who on a normal basis would be hovering around $5,500 range had he not been hurt. For that reason alone, I’m locking him in as my anchor for bats. At Coors against lefties this season, Story has a .337 wOBA with a .196 ISO. It’s nothing like his numbers last season but those are seemingly impossible to replicate. Regardless, I’m more than happy to take a steep discount on someone who has proven to excel in these type of matchups.
Save Big by Drafting…Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. KC, $3,800 — Going with another Indians bat in this section. Ramirez got off to a pretty slow start this season but looks as if he’s finally coming around. Over his last 10 games, Ramirez is averaging 8.8 DKFP with two doubles, a triple, four RBI and two stolen bases. Tonight, he’ll be facing off against Danny Duffy ($7,100), who has a .380 wOBA with a 5.61 xFIP against lefties. Getting Ramirez on the cheap in this matchup seems like a good way to save some salary while getting a hitter that finally seems like he’s starting to put it together.
Stack Em UpATL vs. PHI (Nick Pivetta) — I don’t know how else to say it. Pivetta ($6,200) has been downright brutal this season. Now, he’ll be on the road against a Braves team that ranks amongst the best hitting clubs on their home turf. Entering this game, the Braves sport a .361 wOBA with a .221 ISO at home. I think this is a great spot to take the Braves and considering how expensive the stack would be makes them an interesting way to pivot off of Coors Field if you’re looking to do so.
Favorite Prop Bet
Angels UNDER 5.5 runs (+110)I’m not a big fan of the Angels offense, which is looking like they’ll be without Tommy La Stella tonight. The Halos draw a matchup against Ariel Jurado, who isn’t exactly someone you would fear on a normal basis. With that said, he’s been quietly putting together a solid season for the Rangers. You might be surprised to know that he’s currently sporting only a .319 wOBA and a 4.30 xFIP at home, a span of 26 1/3 innings. While the bullpen is always a candidate to ruin this team total, six runs feels like a tall task when the team is missing one of their key pieces.
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