All 30 teams will be in action tonight with 15-games on the docket. Tonight features a massive 13-game run projection at Coors Field paired with some really good pitching matchups for the top-tier pitching options. Let’s take a dive into all the information for this slate and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Charlie Morton, $10,600, TB (-265) vs. BAL (+225) — I was surprised that this is the first time Morton will face the Orioles this season. When you figure these two teams are in the same division, you’d imagine they’ve met once already. Nonetheless, Morton is riding a stretch where he’s gone at least six innings in seven straight starts, allowing no more than two runs in five with at least six strikeouts. The Orioles will give him a legitimate chance to keep that streak going, as they the ninth highest K% against righties at 23.8% and just a .306 wOBA and .171 ISO. At home, Morton sports a .263 wOBA with a 3.29 xFIP and only three of his seven home runs allowed. Seeing as there are three pitchers priced above him, I think this is a really good spot to take Morton, especially with a lot of attention going to Patrick Corbin ($11,100), who will be facing the Marlins.
Highest TotalHOU (+128) vs. COL (-139) 13 runs — 13 runs!!!! What a wild OVER/UNDER for this game at Coors Field. As I write this Tuesday morning, the Astros currently don’t have a starter listed but the consensus is it’ll be Jose Urquidy (N/A), who will be making his MLB debut. While he’s not available in tonight’s roster pool, this would be quite the place to roster him to begin with. With a 6.5 total for the Rockies, this wouldn’t be a spot to target him to begin with.
On the mound for the Rockies will be German Marquez ($8,700). Not only has he struggled at home but he’s coming off an overall tough month of June. Through 30 innings, Marquez posted a .366 wOBA with a 4.00 xFIP and six of his 15 home runs allowed on the season. Not exactly stats you want to see when an offense like the Astros are coming to town. Lefties have given Marquez the biggest issues at home this season, tagging him for a .368 wOBA with a 4.52 xFIP. Guys like Michael Brantley ($4,500), Josh Reddick ($4,200) should draw some interest. Overall, for being at Coors Field, the Astros are cheap, which will likely make them uber chalky.
Weather ConcernsThis is one of those slates where a billion (or more like seven) games have a slight chance of some rain at some point. None of them look to be in any real danger of being postponed but for the sake of it, I’ll list them all below. Do yourself a favor and check the weather close to lock to make sure nothing has changed.
MIA @ WAS (Nationals Park)
CHC @ PIT (PNC Park)
NYY @ NYM (Citi Field)
MIL @ CIN (Great American Ball Park)
HOU @ COL (Coors Field)
DET @ CWS (Guaranteed Rate Field)
PHI @ ATL (SunTrust Park)
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Matt Straham, .436, 5.75
Tyler Beede, .421, 6.34
Taylor Clarke, .396, 6.52
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
David Price, .204, 3.00
Patrick Corbin, .239, 3.36
Chase Anderson, .241, 4.62
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Chase Anderson, .389, 4.63
Jose Suarez, .370, 5.18
Taylor Clarke, .358, 4.50
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Tanner Roark, .237, 3.25
Trevor Bauer, .257, 3.77
Mike Minor, .280, 4.26
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Chris Iannetta, COL, $4300, 83.3%
Christian Yelich, MIL, $5800, 76.5%
Hunter Dozier, KC, $4000, 75%
Brad Miller, PHI, $3700, 71.4%
Eric Thames, MIL, $4800, 70%
Pitcher to Build AroundTrevor Bauer, CLE vs. KC, $11,600 — I have no issue paying up for Bauer in this spot against the Royals. These teams just bet in his last start and Bauer tossed 6 2/3 innings allowing just one run on three hits while striking out 12 on 127 pitches, good for 37.4 DKFP. Bauer has been pitching extremely well as of late and ends the month of June with a .297 wOBA and a 3.76 xFIP and a K% of 26.2. The Royals have not been a strong hitting club at home and will enter this game with a .317 wOBA and .158 ISO.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForRafael Devers, BOS vs. TOR, $4,900 — The Red Sox will face off against Trent Thornton ($7,500), who has primarily struggled against lefties. On the season, he has an .347 wOBA with a 4.27 xFIP and eight of the 13 home runs he’s allowed. The numbers take quite the jump when he’s at the Rogers Centre as lefties have tagged him with a .492 wOBA and a 4.00 xFIP with six of those home runs. With the way Devers has been swinging the bat, this feels like a spot I don’t want to miss out on. Over his last 10 games, Devers is averaging 10.4 DKFP.
Save Big by Drafting…Jason Kipnis, CLE vs. KC, $3,600 — The value you’re getting on Kipnis is quite insane. This is someone who was last priced at $4,700 just two days ago. Getting him at $3,600 feels like quite the bargain in a good matchup to boot. He’ll be facing Jakob Junis ($7,300), who was just hit hard by this Indians club to the tune of four runs on nine hits through six innings. Against lefties, Junis is allowing a .376 wOBA with a 4.59 xFIP and nine of his 18 home runs allowed.
Stack Em UpHOU vs. COL (German Marquez) – I truly hate to be the one to state the obvious but I don’t know how you don’t stack the Astros at Coors Field with how the salaries are. They’re truly priced like they’re at a normal ballpark and getting guys like Brantley and Reddick on the cheap in a plus-matchup is a bit crazy. The Rockies bullpen hasn’t been anything special on top of that so I feel like this is just a move you have to take.
Favorite Prop Bet
St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 4.5 runs (+120)As a club, the Cardinals are REALLY struggling as of late. Over the past week they’ve posted only a .234 wOBA with a .071 ISO and 26.2 K%. Tonight, they visit the Mariners and will face Wade LeBlanc, who has been low-key solid as of late. Sure, they have the benefit of a DH but I think their struggles continue as they’ve been weak against lefties on the year.
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