What once was a 15-game slate has now turned into a 14-game slate. Game 2 of the Astros and White Sox have been removed due to a scheduling change. It really changes the landscape of this slate as it removes Gerrit Cole, who had massive strikeout potential against one of the most prone teams in the league. Now, ownership will spread out across the board to some other pitchers. Let’s get into all the information on this slate and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Jeff Hoffman will start in place of Jon Gray (ankle) in tonight’s game vs the Diamondbacks.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Domingo German, $10,000, NYY (-305) vs. BAL (+255) — Welp. We all know what happened last time an opposing team against the Orioles were a massive favorite like the Yankees are tonight. They somehow beat the Astros and Justin Verlander, who started this game as -357 favorites. Is history about to repeat itself?
In all seriousness, German has done quite well against the Orioles this season, making three starts already and tossing 18 innings allowing six runs (five earned) on 13 hits while striking out 16 for an average of 21.2 DKFP. German has been SO much better at Yankee Stadium this season as well, posting a .249 wOBA with a 3.67 xFIP with only seven of the 23 home runs he’s allowed. The home runs have been a problem of late, allowing 10 over 33 innings in the second half but aside from that, he’s been posting some good games overall. He’s also the cheapest $10K pitcher tonight, which we have five in total. One would imagine his ownership would be fairly high but on a full slate, it should be spread out for the most part.
Highest TotalARI (+114) vs. COL (-129) 12.5 runs — As expected, the game at Coors Field carries the highest projected total of the evening with the Rockies favored in this one. They currently sport a 6.5 team total but have a tough matchup as they face Zac Gallen ($7,000). Since being called up to the majors, Gallen hasn’t allowed more than three runs in eight starts. This certainly would be the environment where Gallen could take a step back being in the top hitter’s environment in all of baseball. With that in mind, Gallen’s advanced numbers aren’t terrible either, sporting an overall xFIP of 4.44. This might be one of those situations where I’m not looking to use Gallen but I’m also not crazy about stacking the Rockies. Even on the D-Backs side, they’ll be taking on Jon Gray ($7,300) who has been better at Coors Field than he has on the road.
Overall, I think this could be a night to skip over Coors and look elsewhere. I totally get that some may not agree and I get it, Coors is always a huge spot for offense. I personally think the pitching matchup here is a bit better than the lines indicate and one I’m not looking to target.
Weather ConcernsBAL at NYY (Yankee Stadium) – Potential chance of a late start but aside from that, this game should play without issue.
NYM at ATL (SunTrust Park) – Same as Yankee Stadium, a small chance of a delayed start but the rest of the evening looks ok for them to play.
STL at KCR (Kauffman Stadium) – Rain is going to be in the area but doesn’t look as if it will make its way over the stadium. Looks safe for now but would check before first pitch.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Joe Ross, .408, 7.43
Glenn Sparkman, .375, 6.10
Yusei Kikuchi, .373, 4.51
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Zac Gallen, .199, 3.17
Chase Anderson, .233, 4.93
Madison Bumgarner, .242, 3.61
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Alex Wood, .373, 5.36
Chase Anderson, .358, 4.94
Yusei Kikuchi, .358, 5.29
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jordan Yamamoto, .253, 4.79
Jack Flaherty, .262, 3.05
Lance Lynn, .263, 2.94
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Adam Haseley, PHI, $3,400, 87.5%
Teoscar Hernandez, TOR, $3,700, 81.8%
Jake Cave, MIN, $3,300, 80%
Eugenio Suarez, CIN, $4,700, 75%
Joey Votto, CIN, $4,000, 73.3%
Pitcher to Build Around
Matthew Boyd, DET vs. SEA, $10,300 — After getting lit up by the Royals in his last start, we get a $900 discount for tonight’s matchup against the Mariners. I don’t think Boyd gets enough credit for his strikeout upside but he enters this game with a 31.9 K% on the season. Now he’ll face a Mariners team that currently sports the highest team K% in the league against lefties at 26.5%. The Mariners are nothing special offensively against lefties either with a .314 wOBA, a .173 ISO and a 99 wRC+. Boyd just saw this team recently and struck out 10 through 6 1/3 innings while allowing just one run on three hits. With Gerrit Cole off this slate due to a schedule conflict, Boyd has to have one of the best K upsides on this slate.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForPeter Alonso, NYM vs. ATL, $5,200 — I really like this spot for Alonso going up against Max Fried ($6,700) at SunTrust Park. While the overall numbers for Fried at home have been good, he has struggled with home runs to righties in this spot. Of the 15 home runs he’s allowed overall on the year, six of them have come in this spot. Of course, we know how well Alonso has hit lefties, sporting a .405 wOBA and a .407 ISO against them. Sure, he’s one of the more expensive hitters on this slate but I think he’ll be worth the price of admission.
Save Big by Drafting…Jesse Winker, CIN vs. WAS, $3,800 — Last night I had a Reds player in this section and we’ll do it again tonight. Winker should be back in the starting lineup tonight going against Joe Ross ($5,500). The appeal for this matchup is how poor the numbers are for Ross against lefties. Entering this game, Ross sports a .408 wOBA with a 7.43 xFIP. While Ross hasn’t pitched much this season, he’s consistently struggled against lefties throughout his career. Winker, likely batting leadoff, at this salary simply can’t be ignored.
Stack Em UpWAS vs. CIN (Alex Wood) — Wood will be making his fourth start of the season against the Nationals at Nationals Park. Wood hasn’t looked all that impressive since making his return and has quickly given up four home runs through those starts. Now he faces a Nationals team that has .344 wOBA and a .188 ISO against lefties this season. I think the Nationals will go overlooked in this spot and don’t expect their ownership to be that high, making them one of the more enticing stacks on this slate.
Favorite Prop Bet
Matthew Boyd OVER 8.5 strikeouts (+105)
Doubling down on how much I like Boyd tonight, I think he has a legitimate chance to hit the over on this total. As I mentioned earlier, the Mariners have the highest K% in the league against lefties and Boyd just recently had 10 when he faced them in Seattle. I love that we get plus money on this bet and is one of the few strikeout props I’ve taken over the course of the year.
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