WATCH: MLB IN 90 SECONDS JUSTIN UPTON


Thursday afternoon brings us a four-game slate of baseball. Let’s dive right into all the information for this slate, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Pitcher

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Stud

Michael Wacha – STL vs. MIA – $10,700 – I was a bit surprised to see how expensive Wacha was this afternoon since he’s been incredibly inconsistent. Over his last 10 games, Wacha is averaging just 12.2 fantasy points with a 49:22 K:BB ratio. He’ll take on the Marlins this afternoon at home where he owns a .290 wOBA with a .371 SLG and a K/9 of 8.1. One factor that does concern me about Wacha is his 40% hard hit rate over his last three starts, which is up 10% over his season average. However, regarding expensive pitchers, Wacha is the best of the bunch, in my opinion, this afternoon.

Other Options – Zach Davies ($8,800)

UPDATE: Johnny Cueto has been scratched from his start today against the Tigers.

Value

Mike Montgomery – CHC vs. MIL – $7,800 – Montgomery has been fantastic since transitioning to the starting rotation. In 27.2 innings as a starter, Montgomery is posting a .291 wOBA with a .337 SLG and an 8.4 K/9. He takes on a Brewers club that hits lefties well with a .324 wOBA but also owns the third highest K% in the league at 26%. For his performance as a starter, Montgomery feels on the cheaper side this afternoon, but it’s fair to consider this a boom-or-bust type matchup for him.

Other Options – Anibal Sanchez ($6,500)


Catcher

Stud

Alex Avila – DET vs. SFG – $4,000 – Avila has quite the favorable matchup this afternoon against a struggling Johnny Cueto. Facing lefties on the road, Cueto is posting a .356 wOBA with a .523 SLG and eight of his 18 home runs allowed. Avila continues to crush righties at home to the tune of a .477 wOBA, a .646 SLG and six of his 12 home runs.

Other Options Buster Posey ($4,000)

Value

Tucker Barnhart – CIN vs. COL – $3,400 – With Devin Mesoraco hitting the disabled list, Barnhart will take over the primary catcher duties for the immediate future. He hasn’t been posting big numbers, but grabbing a starter at $3,400 at Coors Field is always enticing. Against righties on the road, Barnhart owns a .366 wOBA with a .507 SLG.

Other Options – Yadier Molina ($3,600)


First Base

Stud

Joey Votto – CIN vs. COL – $5,700 – Votto is the second most expensive hitter on this slate at $5,700, but I like his matchup against Tyler Chatwood. At Coors Field, Chatwood is allowing a .394 wOBA to lefties with a .486 SLG and a .424 OBP. Votto has essentially been hitting well in every matchup and sports a .377 wOBA against righties on the road.

Other Options – Mark Reynolds ($4,800)

Value

Victor Martinez – DET vs. SFG – $3,600 – One reason I love rostering Martinez on a slate stacked at first base is that he’s likely to go overlooked. As I mentioned with Avila, Cueto has struggled against lefties on the road this season, making Martinez a very interesting play. Martinez doesn’t have great overall numbers, but I’m encouraged by his career high hard hit rate against righties which sits at 43.5%.

Other Options – Matt Carpenter ($4,300)


Second Base

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Stud

Scooter Gennett – CIN vs. COL – $4,700 – Gennett has been one of the game’s best hitters as of late, averaging 12.3 fantasy points over his last 10 games. At home against left-handed batters has been one of the biggest trouble spots for Chatwood, as he’s sporting a .394 wOBA with a .486 SLG in these matchups.

Other Options – Ian Kinsler ($4,100)

Value

Joe Panik – SFG vs. DET – $3,900 – Anibal Sanchez has historically had his issues with lefties in the past, so it makes sense to grab the hot hitting Panik. He’s done some of his best work on the road this season, posting a .344 wOBA against righties on the road with a .480 SLG with four of his five home runs. Panik is coming off a fantastic month of June that saw him post a .393 wOBA and a .511 SLG.

Other Options – Jonathan Villar ($3,900)


Third Base

Stud

Nolan Arenado – COL vs. CIN – $5,600 – Arenado will be taking on Sal Romano, who is making just the second major league start of his career. In his debut, Romano allowed three runs on three hits in three innings of work against the Brewers. He did allow two home runs as well and could see a similar result this afternoon. At Coors, Arenado owns a .346 wOBA against righties with a .505 SLG and three home runs.

Other Options – Jedd Gyorko ($4,100)

Value

Hernan Perez – MIL vs. CHC – $3,700 – Overall, I think Mike Montgomery can pull off a solid start against the Brewers, but Perez could be a trouble spot for him. On the road against lefties, Perez is sporting a .361 wOBA with a .469 SLG and a .394 OBP. He’s yet to hit a home run in this split, but he does have 10 on the season.

Other Options Jae-gyun Hwang ($2,700)


Shortstop

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Stud

Trevor Story – COL vs. CIN – $4,000 – Shortstop is quite thin this afternoon, so I’m rolling with Story and his power potential. Overall, Story has been a massive disappointment in comparison to last season, but he still has 11 home runs. As I mentioned, Romano allowed two in his debut against the Brewers and Coors Field isn’t exactly the spot to right the ship.

Other Options – Zack Cozart ($4,700)

Value

Javier Baez – CHC vs. MIL – $3,300 – Baez is a cheap, power option at shortstop this afternoon. At $3,300, you can grab a player that’s hit six of his 10 home runs at home with four of them coming against righties. Baez will take on Zach Davies, who’s allowing a .343 wOBA to righties with a .456 SLG and six of his 14 home runs.

Other Options – Alexi Amarista ($3,300)


Outfield

Stud

J.D. Martinez – DET vs. SFG – $4,600 –  I don’t think Cueto will pull off a successful start at Comerica Park this afternoon, so getting some exposure to Martinez makes sense. At home against righties, Martinez is posting a .376 wOBA with a .532 SLG with five of his 14 home runs on the season.

Other Options – Charlie Blackmon ($5,900), Scott Schebler ($4,100)

Value

Randall Grichuk – STL vs. MIA – ($3,700) –  I think maybe I didn’t give enough love to the Cardinals this afternoon, so Grichuk is my top cheap outfielder. He’ll take on Tom Koehler, who is sporting a .402 wOBA on the road with seven of his 11 home runs allowed. Those 11 home runs are significant when you consider he’s pitched only 40 innings this season. Grichuk only has a .314 wOBA at home this season but he’s hit five of his six home runs at home.

Other Options – Jose Martinez ($3,100) Keon Broxton ($3,100)

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.