Ross Stripling

Tuesday’s Showdown contests feature a choice between two games: Yankees at Mets (7:10 p.m. ET) and Diamondbacks at Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET). This article will focus on the late game.

Corey Seager (hamstring) and A.J. Pollock (elbow) are both getting closer to a return for the Dodgers, but will likely remain out of the lineup until after the All-Star break. For up-to-the-minute news, analysis, and lineups, download the DK Live app. You can also follow DK Live on Twitter at @DKLive.

Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.


BETTING TRENDS

-The D-Backs have lost each of their past eight Tuesday games.

-The first inning UNDER has hit in each of Arizona’s past four games.

-The Dodgers have led after three innings in each of their past seven Tuesday home games.

-Eight of the D-Backs’ past nine games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Los Angeles Dodgers

Ross Stripling ($10,400) takes the mound for the Dodgers. Stripling began the season as a starting pitcher, but has primarily pitched out of the bullpen in 2019. He has excellent numbers through 21 appearances, seven of which were starts, posting a 3.08 ERA and 3.54 FIP, both significantly better than average. He has held batters to an expected wOBA of .303 based on the exit velocities and angles of their batted balls, better than the league average of .322. Stripling has also limited opponent power output, posting a better than average home run rate and holding batters to an isolated power of .162, better than the league average of .177. He has struck out 24% of batters, also slightly better than average. Stripling’s effective pitching in 2019 is in line with his career numbers, and he has a career ERA of 3.46 with a FIP of 3.63, both impressive numbers. Stripling faces a Diamondbacks offense that has been mediocre this season by wOBA and has been below average over the last 30 days.

The issue with Stripling on Tuesday is his stamina, as he is not really built up as a starter yet. Stripling has made just one start since April, throwing three innings and 60 pitches in his most recent appearance, a start on June 25. After throwing only 60 pitches in his most recent outing, it’s difficult to envision Stripling pitching deep into this game, which could limit his fantasy value despite effective pitching due to lower volume.

Dodgers batters have an excellent matchup against Diamondbacks RHP Taylor Clarke ($9.000), who has been ineffective throughout all of 2019, both in Triple-A and in the big leagues. Through nine major league appearances, Clarke has an ugly 6.10 ERA and 6.04 FIP, plus he has been dinger prone, allowing over two home runs per nine innings, contributing to allowing opponents to produce an explosive isolated power of .296, which would be an elite mark for a hitter. Clarke has allowed batters to produce an expected wOBA of .369 based on the exit velocities and angles of their batted balls, also a poor number. Clarke was even less effective in Triple-A in 2019, striking out just 16% of batters while posting a 7.22 ERA and 5.91 FIP. Clarke has pitched against the Dodgers twice this season, and while his 3.60 ERA looks impressive on the surface, he has allowed Dodgers batters to produce an expected wOBA of .368 based on their contact quality, which is almost identical to his overall expected wOBA allowed on the season.

The undisputed top bat for Los Angeles is Cody Bellinger ($10,800). Bellinger ranks as the best hitter in baseball by wOBA (.454) and fourth best power hitter by ISO (.349). Bellinger has done most of his damage against righties, which adds to the matchup, as Clarke is a RHP who has been less effective against left-handed batters. Other high-quality options in the Dodgers’ lineup include Max Muncy ($10,000) and Joc Pederson ($8,400). Alex Verdugo ($8,000), Justin Turner ($7,400) and Matt Beatty ($5,200) are also options.


Arizona Diamondbacks

Clarke is an unappealing fantasy play for reasons listed in the above section. While he has posted 14 DKFP and 12 DKFP against the Dodgers this season, it has been built on shaky ground based on his contact quality metrics allowed to Dodgers’ hitters. Clarke is at high risk to post a poor fantasy outing against a Dodgers offense that has been the second best offense vs. right-handed pitchers this season.

Diamondbacks’ hitters have a matchup vs. Stripling, who has been effective, and will be backed by a Dodgers’ pen that has been better than average by both ERA and FIP. Stripling has reverse platoon splits by career expected wOBA allowed, actual wOBA allowed, and FIP, which means he has had more success vs. left-handed batters than right-handed batters, although his pitch types generally do not reflect those of a reverse splits pitcher. Ketel Marte ($9,400) has been the Arizona’s best hitter and best fantasy producer this season, with Eduardo Escobar ($9,600) not far behind. Adam Jones ($6,600) has been batting leadoff lately, giving him a premium lineup slot for fantasy production, and David Peralta ($7,400) has strong numbers against right-handed pitchers.


THE OUTCOME

With Stripling ($15,600 CP) a candidate to not assume a full starter’s workload with his pitch count, Bellinger ($16,200 CP) is a strong choice as the Captain’s Pick in a very soft matchup against a pitcher who has been highly prone to allowing extra base hits. Muncy ($15,000 CP) and Pederson ($12,600 CP) are also options as the Captain’s Pick with their power hitting upside.

The Dodgers have the substantial edge in the pitching matchup and have had the second best offense in baseball by wOBA against right-handed pitchers, behind only the Yankees. Their power output vs. RHP has been second to only the Twins by isolated power. The Dodgers are well-positioned to win this game with their edge in both pitching and hitting.

Final score: Dodgers 6, Diamondbacks 4


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