The Rockies let us down last night and only put up 1 run. The Pirates gave us 6 runs and made Coors their playground. The Mets stack worked out, but I really wish that I would have hopped on the Diamondback train and benefited from their 12 runs. We have 15 more games to dig through tonight and another Coors game glaring us in the face.
Colorado Rockies vs. Gerrit Cole
Projected Team Total: 5 Runs
Yes, they got us last night, but I can’t see it happening two nights in a row. Coors is the chalkiest of chalk when it comes to ballpark rating and I can’t stay away. Cole had a great outing last game and has a 2.70 ERA in 16 innings. He has allowed a .493 OPS against RHBs and a .586 OPS against LHBs. Carlos Gonzalez has a .434 handedness wOBA and a .652 SLG%. Even though Cole comes in pitching well, I like the team handedness wOBA and will have a Rockies stack tonight. Feel free to roll out Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Gerardo Parra and Ben Paulsen tonight.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Jorge De La Rosa
Projected Team Total: 5.5 Runs
The Pirates did hit for us last night with 6 runs. They get a matchup with Jorge De La Rosa tonight who is coming off of an illness. He has a 9.87 ERA on the season and has allowed a .948 OPS so far. Andrew McCutchen was out last night and may be out again tonight. Most of the Pirates have had success against De La Rosa in the past and I think that we could see even more runs than last night. I will have exposure to Jon Jaso, David Freese, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco tonight.
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New York Yankees vs. A.J. Griffin
Projected Team Total: 4.7 Runs
Vegas has this game at a 9 run total and the Yankees favored at -120. Griffin is 2-0 this season and hasn’t looked bad. He has a 3.18 ERA on the season, but has allowed a .927 OPS against LHBs, which the Yankees have a lot of. Globe Life Park is ranked 3rd for hitters this season and the Yankees are getting hot. Brett Gardner has a .500 BA lifetime against Griffin. I will also have exposure to Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira and Jacoby Ellsbury tonight.
San Francisco Giants vs. James Shields
Projected Team Total: 4.2 Runs
This play is more about Shields than it is about the Giants. AT&T Park has been more neutral this season and doesn’t really favor hitters or pitchers. Shields has a 4.15 ERA and has yet to post a win this season. The Giants are 10-11 this season and will look to tee off on Shields. The Giants have a good history and I like Joe Panik, Denard Span, Brandon Belt, Buster Posey and Trevor Brown tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kyle Hendricks
Projected Team Total: 4 runs
I know it’s hard to pick against the Cubs right now, but that’s why this is a contrarian pick. Ryan Braun has been hot and has a .386 handedness wOBA tonight. The Brewers will hope that Scooter Gennett, Jonathan Lucroy and Chris Carter will use their positive handedness wOBA to make a big impact tonight.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Carlos Martinez
Projected Team Total: 4 Runs
Chase Field has been one of the best of the best for hitting this season. The Diamondbacks put up 12 runs last night, which makes me think people will either jump on board or stay away. I think people will be a little worried about the matchup against Martinez who is 3-0 on the season. Yasmany Tomas has been on fire lately and is .500 lifetime against Martinez. I will have Tomas tonight as well as Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt and David Peralta.