Expensive Stacks

San Francisco Giants vs. Jordan Lyles

Projected Team Total: 6 Runs

I know this is chalky, but I will never stay away from Coors when all the factors are right. The Giants put up 7 runs last night and are projected to do the same again tonight. This game is projected at a 12 run total with the Giants favored at -114. Jordan Lyles is a righty that posted a 1.053 OPS in his first start of the season and only reeled off 3 1/2 innings. The team as a whole has had a lot of success against Lyles in the past and have a team wOBA of .322 tonight. I think Denard Span, Joe Panik, Hunter Pence, and Brandon Belt should rival the run total they put up last night.

Colorado Rockies vs. Jake Peavy

Projected Team Total: 5.9 Runs

Don’t be mad, I told you I will never disown Coors. The Rockies underwhelmed last night only posting 2 runs. However, tonight the matchup with Peavy is a lot better. Peavy has a 4.98 ERA against the Rockies in Coors, which is just a little mouth watering to me. The Rockies as a whole boast a team handedness wOBA of .333. The lefties in the lineup like Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon and Gerardo Parra are all in good spots. It will also be interesting to see if Trevor Story can start the streak again and post another homer (to go with his 7 already).

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Value Stacks

Baltimore Orioles vs. Joe Kelly

Projected Team Total: 4.30 Runs

My Orioles are on fire so far this season and don’t look to be slowing down any time soon. Joe Kelly had a rough 1st start and has a 4.90 ERA at Fenway. With the O’s boasting a team wOBA .327 and a team ISO of .187, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a run fest tonight. Kelly is a righty that had an .840 OPS against RHB last season. Guys like Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Matt Wieters all boast positive wOBA matchups. However, the value can be found from guys like Joey Rickard, Nolan Reimold and J.J. Hardy (2 homers last night) tonight.

Chicago Cubs vs. Alfredo Simon

Projected Team Total: 4.4 Runs

This game is projected at 7.5, with the Cubs heavily favored at -220. Simon had a good first start lasting 5 innings and limiting damage. He had an OPS of .734 against RHB last season and an .862 against LHB. The Cubs have a team wOBA of .318 and even though Simon has looked good against the Cubs, I like the matchup tonight. I will have shares of Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo tonight.

Contrarian Stacks

Boston Red Sox vs. Ubaldo Jimenez

Projected Team Total: 4.6

The Red Sox couldn’t pull off the win last night, but still posted a nice 5 run total. I think that a lot of guys will want to ride the hot hand of the O’s and forget about the Red Sox tonight. Unlike Joe Kelly, Ubaldo had a nice first start, registering a .750 OPS and putting up 7 innings. The Red Sox have a team handedness wOBA of .319 and have had a lot of success against Jimenez in the past. I will have some David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval tonight.

Washington Nationals vs. Matt Wisler

Projected Team Total: 4.3 Runs

The Nationals let us down yesterday only posting 2 runs. With a projected total of 7.5 and the assumption that the Nationals will win, I like this game a lot. I think a lot of guys will be off of the Nationals due to yesterday’s performance. Matt Wisler is in his sophomore season and still isn’t a great pitcher. He had a .986 OPS against LHBs last season and the Nationals have 2 left handed mashers. Bryce Harper is carrying a SLG% of .697 into this game and Daniel Murphy has a .496. I like both of these guys as well as Michael Taylor and Anthony Rendon tonight.