cody bellinger

With the MLB in its All-Star break, it’s a great time to look at the DK Sportsbook and examine where some of the futures odds are in comparison to back on Opening Day, potentially offering value at this stage of the season. Here are some of the top bets that are on the rise or on the decline that stand out to me.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Rising

World Series Odds

Dodgers — Opening Day +800/Currently +300
Yankees — Opening Day +600/Currently +350

The Dodgers just don’t have much clear-cut competition in the NL. Los Angeles sits at +120 to win the NL Pennant while the 54-win Braves (+300) are next in line, followed by the Cubs (+900) well in the rearview. After losing consecutive World Series appearances, above even odds to continue dominating the NL makes for the safer bet than winning it all.

The Yankees are tied with the Astros in the win column, leading the AL with 57 apiece. However, New York does have two fewer losses. This team kept its head above water through injuries and has flexed its muscles while getting those healthy bodies back. If anyone in the AL has the strongest build for a dominant second half, it’s the Yanks. These odds are well deserved and my favorite WS bet.

NL MVP

Cody Bellinger — Opening Day +2800/Currently +100
Christian Yelich — Opening Day +2000/Currently +165

This is a two-man race, and nobody else is even worth considering at this point. If you threw some darts at NL MVP before the season and have one of these guys, you could consider hedging on the other, because nobody else is taking home this award. The Dodgers are a lock to reach the postseason, obvious by their +120 odds to win the NL, while the Brewers are still +145 to reach the postseason in the ultra-competitive NL Central. Because Yelich won the award last year and the Dodgers should finish as the best team in baseball, I think Bellinger is the better bet. From a numbers standpoint, these two are pretty much neck-and-neck, so the team aspect of the award could come into play here.

AL Cy Young

Lucas Giolito — Opening Day OTB/Currently +550

Justin Verlander (+170), Gerrit Cole (+350) and Charlie Morton (+400) are the other risers, and all are seeing action — all three have seen their odds become even less favorable since the start of the All-Star break. Giolito, despite not even being offered to win the award prior to the season, interests me the most, especially since he slipped from +450 since the odds re-opened.

He’s tied for the AL lead with 11 wins and has a 3.15 ERA. Giolito’s had to work his way into his dominant stretch and also has pitching for the White Sox working against him. I wouldn’t rule out a dominant second half, though, which intrigues me at +550. If you take out two poor outings against the Cubs, Giolito’s given up nine total runs in his past 10 starts against AL competition. The two Houston pitchers could work against each other, while Morton has room to regress pitching in the AL East.


Falling

World Series Odds

Red Sox — Opening Day +650/Currently +2500

I actually think we can get some value on the Red Sox here. They’re not going to win the AL East, so they’d have to make this happen from a Wild Card spot — 49-41 puts them 9.0 games back in the division. However, these are the defending WS champs and have a very similar roster to last season. The bullpen needs help, but that could be addressed with the return of Nathan Eovaldi or at the trade deadline. If this team gets hot to close the season out, a playoff run isn’t out of question. We’re getting four times the money on a payout as we would’ve to begin the season, and hedging opportunities would arise if Boston were to win a round.


Division Odds

Philadelphia Phillies — Opening Day +175/Currently +850

The Braves (-590) are the heavy favorite here, and frankly, they should be able to close out this division. But the Phillies have the firepower to make this competitive. The Phillies are 6.5 games back of the Braves but get extremely steep odds because the Nationals (+650) are 6.0 games back. The Phillies limped into the All-Star break, but reports indicate they’ll be buyers leading up to the trade deadline. If they can recapture their early-season form, along with the help of some new additions, this division isn’t wrapped up the way some of the other’s with heavy favorites are.

AL/NL Cy Young

Chris Sale — Opening Day +300/Currently +1300
Jacob deGrom — Opening Day +350/Currently +1700

Both of these guys might be big names that stick out at long odds, but are obvious fades here.
The last time Sale won a game at Fenway Park was July 11 … of 2018. While his stuff is still there during some outings, I don’t think anything less than perfection in the second half of the season would even get him into the conversation. Sale has to work his way back from a 3-8 record and 4.04 ERA, which will be nearly impossible. While the Red Sox might still have postseason life if they can lockdown a Wild Card spot, don’t confuse that with Sale being a Cy Young candidate. We already went over all the competition in the AL in front of Sale.

When you’re on the Mets, you have to be spectacular to win the Cy Young. deGrom was in 2018 — 10-9 with a 1.70 ERA and 269 strikeouts. A 4-7 start with a 3.27 ERA in 2019 just isn’t going to get it done, even if he somehow manages to capture his 2018 stride in the second half of this season. The rest of the competition is too good — Max Scherzer (+110) and Hyun-Jin Ryu (+160).


Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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