Golf Picks: Top Prop Bets to Consider for Waste Management Open

Everyone knows Super Bowl Sunday is all about prop bets. We love to bet on everything from the coin toss to the color of the gatorade shower. The Super Bowl isn’t the only way to get some action this weekend on props though. Each week, I’m going to break down four of my favorite prop or unconventional bets here from the DK Sportsbook. The course this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open is TPC Scottsdale, which is a Par 71 that plays a shade over 7,260 yards. It also happens to be the site of the famous – or infamous, depending on who you’re talking to – stadium hole, which is a Par 3 surrounded by one of the biggest parties on tour.


Hole-in-One

There are a few ways you can get action on hole in ones this week. As I mentioned above, the Par 3 16th hole has some hole-in-one potential along with the rest of the Par 3s. The line is currently set at Yes (-137) and No (+100). Dating back to 1990, there have been 21 hole in ones at this event. That means that there have been 0.75 aces per year. There hasn’t been one since 2016 but pin placements, at the stadium hole especially, are pretty ripe to go for the flagstick.

Play: Yes (-137)


Playoff

Playoffs?! We’re talking about playoffs?! Sorry, I couldn’t resist there. There’s a couple of different ways to look at this bet. The line is currently set at Yes (+400) and No (-670). A tournament going into a playoff in golf is somewhat rare, but it seems like there are some courses and setups that lend themselves to being more prone to extra holes. Since 2008, we’ve needed a playoff to decide a winner on six separate occasions, including each of the past three years. There are plenty of birdie opportunities and risk/reward holes down the stretch at TPC Scottsdale that can cause big swings on the leaderboard.

Play: Yes (+400)


Winner’s Score on the 72nd Hole

The final stretch of holes at TPC Scottsdale can be taxing for the leader. From the crowds on the 16th hole to the potential of going for the Par 4 17th in one and losing it in the water, there can be a reason to press coming down the 18th. That’s compounded by the fact that the Par 5 18th isn’t a cakewalk in its own right. The final hole is a Par 4 that plays 442 yards and historically hasn’t been particularly giving in terms of scoring. It’s averaged over par and has only surrendered birdies to 15 percent of the field. On the other hand, over 20 percent of the field has bogeyed or worse.

Play: Par the 72nd Hole (-177) with a sprinkle on Bogey the 72nd Hole (+600)


South American Group

The nationality prop bets are some of the most fun offerings on the DK Sportsbook in my opinion. The South American group pops as having quite a bit of value this week. We have three options in that pool:

Emiliano Grillo (-110)
Joaquin Niemann (+225)
Jhonattan Vegas (+300)

There’s some real value on Niemann here. The model that I use to predict upside puts Niemann at over a 17 percent chance at finishing the week with 85-plus DK Points compared to Grillo’s 7 percent chance. They have similar projections when it comes to cut-making and baseline performance. Considering the odds we’re getting in essentially a three-ball, the clear play is the 20-year-old Chilean phenom.

Play: Niemann (+225)


Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.

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